Met Office Hadley             8.2c.          Anomaly        0.2c.  Provisional to  7th.

Metcheck                          8.09c         Anomaly        1.16c

Netweather                       8.94c         Anomaly         2.04c

Peasedown  St John        9.18c       Anomaly      1.58c.

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Met Office Hadley            7.9c.          Anomaly         -0.1c.    Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                         7.58c          Anomaly         0.66c

Netweather                      8.49c          Anomaly         1.6c

Peasedown St John        8.64c        Anomaly          1.04c. 

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Currently still looking on track for cold- but of course that could be anything between 4 and 6! (or lower).

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Obviously we're all missing GWs regular input and (no offence meant to anyone else) it doesn't quite seem complete at the moment, although we're lucky to have Art's daily updates. 

I thought I might take a pip at mid-month then. Not truly representative of course, but just as a feeler I looked at preds for Leicester which is very roughly in the middle of the triangle. We've had 8 days so the next 8 days are estimated by the Beeb to have the following averages:

7    5.5   5    5    3.5    6   6    6  (at time of posting).

I make that an average of 44 ÷ 8 = 5.5.

Coupled with the current 8 days which Art has posted as 7.9 and we have a 16 day average un-adjusted of about 6.7. I'll need the second half-month to be bloomin cold to get close to my prediction! 

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Obviously we're all missing GWs regular input and (no offence meant to anyone else) it doesn't quite seem complete at the moment, although we're lucky to have Art's daily updates. 

I thought I might take a pip at mid-month then. Not truly representative of course, but just as a feeler I looked at preds for Leicester which is very roughly in the middle of the triangle. We've had 8 days so the next 8 days are estimated by the Beeb to have the following averages:

7    5.5   5    5    3.5    6   6    6  (at time of posting).

I make that an average of 44 ÷ 8 = 5.5.

Coupled with the current 8 days which Art has posted as 7.9 and we have a 16 day average un-adjusted of about 6.7. I'll need the second half-month to be bloomin cold to get close to my prediction! 

I’ll need it to stay the same for it to be near mine!  And then get a downward adjustment!  

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Met Office Hadley            7.3c.          Anomaly       -0.6c. Provisional to  9th.

Metcheck                         7.21c         Anomaly       0.29c

Netweather                      7.96c         Anomaly       1.07c

Peasedown St John          8.63c        Anomaly       1.03c.

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Wow; taken quite a tumble today. A point six drop in one day, over 9 days, is more than 5 degrees off the existing mean for that day. Yes- just looked; CET only 2.3 yesterday.

Add: not just the frost of the previous night, but a cold day too: only 5.8 CET max.

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I'll admit, the shortfall of temps on the LTA during this chilly cyclonic regime has impressed me.

NWP modelling suggests that things may become a bit less cyclonic, mostly for northern parts, during the coming ten days. With that, night temps look to drop a little further, while day temps continue similar to of late.

Raw GFS 12z numbers give me a rough CET estimate of just 5.8*C to 19th. 

That run was among the chillest outcomes so far - and it remains that way past D10, such that a rough estimate to 25th is in the high 4s to low 5s *C. I'm not sure it can be much colder without leading to widespread lowland snowfall - for most, the wintriest it gets is a bit of sleet.

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Looks like being the second below average CET month!  I think I’ve gone too high!  

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I'll admit, the shortfall of temps on the LTA during this chilly cyclonic regime has impressed me.

NWP modelling suggests that things may become a bit less cyclonic, mostly for northern parts, during the coming ten days. With that, night temps look to drop a little further, while day temps continue similar to of late.

Raw GFS 12z numbers give me a rough CET estimate of just 5.8*C to 19th. 

That run was among the chillest outcomes so far - and it remains that way past D10, such that a rough estimate to 25th is in the high 4s to low 5s *C. I'm not sure it can be much colder without leading to widespread lowland snowfall - for most, the wintriest it gets is a bit of sleet.

Thanks James. Like a coffee fix. Please keep us updated with your perspective as I'm all at sea right now!

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Okay, a third of the way through the month; if anyone's interested, I went for 5.24.

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Met Office Hadley           7.1c.         Anomaly         -0.8c.  Provisional to 10th.

Metchcheck                    7.07c        Anomaly          0.15c

Netweather                    7.8c          Anomaly          0.91c

Peasedown St John        8.32c       Anomaly       0.72c.       

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Okay, a third of the way through the month; if anyone's interested, I went for 5.24.

I reckon that was a good call and you’ll be closer than me. I went for 6.5c.  

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6.7c Is my guess.

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I've gone for 6.58C.
I'm starting to think now that I should have been braver and gone lower given that there is little indication in the reliable timeframe of even average, let alone milder conditions. However there is a lot at stake for me and under the circumstances I thought it wiser to play it relatively safe.

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Although I don`t participate in the CET comp anymore,it seems we are on course for the coldest November since 1993. Winter has well and truly arrived very early and it could be a long one lasting many months!

Although I don`t participate in the CET comp anymore,it seems we are on course for the coldest November since 1993. Winter has well and truly arrived very early and it could be a long one lasting many months!

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Could also finish as the coldest autumn since 1993 if we end up below 5c for November by my calculations . It's a big ask though

I've gone way too high again 7.9c I am really rubbish at this game. Probably gone 3c to much! 

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I'll need a heatwave to get close  After missing a couple of months worth of predictions also, I think the wooden spoon might be coming to Kent this year 

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