I am in the very fortunate position that a pretty wide range of outcomes are advantageous to me, simply due to the predictions of my nearest rivals compared to mine. None have gone lower than my 10.85C so anything at or lower than that I will increase my lead to 0.37C.

Yes, Col. Another good shout by you this month.

My worst fears are being realised as a chilly final week now looks likely and my error margin gets bigger. Looks like you'll have a decent lead with a few of us fighting for runners up positions. 

Met Office Hadley        11.0c.        Anomaly       -0.0c.  Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     10.63c       Anomaly       0.13c.

Netweather                  11.27c       Anomaly       0.88c

Peasedown St John          11.21c.         Anomaly       -0.88c

Will we be down in the 10c range with Metcheck by the end of the month?                

Met Office Hadley         10.9c.       Anomaly       -0.0c.  Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                      10.68c       Anomaly        0.17c

Netweather                   11.9c         Anomaly        0.9c

Peasedown St John     1.5c         Anomaly        -0.5c. 

Met Office Hadley            10.9c.         Anomaly       -0.1c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                         10.52c        Anomaly       0.01c

Netweather                      11.22c        Anomaly       0.83c

Peasedown St John           11.2c          Anomaly       -0.8c 

Last night's widespread frost is going to knock the figure.

Last night's widespread frost is going to knock the figure.

Yes, the next three nights will be frosty as well. Add on the usual 0.2 or 0.3 downwards correction and I'm beginning to wonder if a sub 10C CET is possible?

Met Office Hadley            10.7c.         Anomaly       -0.2c Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                         10.33c        Anomaly       -0.18c

Netweather                      11.04c        Anomaly       0.65c

Peasedown St John        11.1c        Anomaly        -0.9c      

 

Yes, the next three nights will be frosty as well. Add on the usual 0.2 or 0.3 downwards correction and I'm beginning to wonder if a sub 10C CET is possible?

Col will be pleased and with good reason. He’s done exceptionally well every month this year!   

Daytime temps are doing nothing to hold it up either.  It’s certainly looking like a below average finish is on the cards.  

Col will be pleased and with good reason. He’s done exceptionally well every month this year!   

Not exactly every month though. February wasn't particulary good and I lost the bulk of my lead in September, though I should claw back at least some of that in October.

Met Office Hadley             10.5c.        Anomaly       -0.3c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                          10.16c       Anomal;y      -0.35c

Netweather                       10.83c       Anomaly        0.44c

Peasedown St John         10.8c.     Anomaly     -1.2c. 

Met Office Hadley           10.4c.           Anomaly         -0.4c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                        10.05c          Anomaly         -0.46c

Netweather                     10.7c            Anomaly         0.31c

Peasedown St John      10.7c    Anomaly       -1.3c.

Still falling!  But unless there’s a big downwards adjustment, I don’t think it’ll fall below 10c. 

Going to be touch and go I think. Can see it reaching 10.2 unadjusted so would need 0.3C correction to get it to 9.9C

Certainly going to be the coolest October since 2012 whatever happens.

10.3 provisional to 30th. One of my worst guesses this month.

Met Office Hadley            10.3c.        Anomaly      -0.4c. Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                         9.92c        Anomaly       -0.59c

Netweather                      10.6c        Anomaly       0.29c

Peasedown St John          10.6c.      Anomaly      -1.4c.

MetO giving 10.0C as the confirmed figure for October

Everyone was too high but Splinter got nearest at 10.10

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

**edit 9.98 to the nearest 0.01

(Anomaly -0.64C on a 1961-90 basis)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2019

Looks like Jerry will be shooting up the charts a bit, into the ten and above me. Luckily, Dingle Rob and Frank will take a bit of a tumble so I reckon, a net gain of 1. Look forward to GWs full analysis later.

Looks like Jerry will be shooting up the charts a bit, into the ten and above me. Luckily, Dingle Rob and Frank will take a bit of a tumble so I reckon, a net gain of 1. Look forward to GWs full analysis later.

Yep sure will. This must be the first below average month of the year. New trend starting?

Just been going through the CET for this weeks Winter 2019/20 update analogues and I saw that all the way back to 1850 October has never had a CET of 10.0.