It looking increasingly likely Whether Idles's remarkable error of 5.99 set a few years ago is safe for another year. 

 

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It looks to me that Oct 2019 is the first "below average" month since March 2018, that's 18 consecutive months without a below average one!

 

 

 

 

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It looks to me that Oct 2019 is the first "below average" month since March 2018, that's 18 consecutive months without a below average one! 

It might not be the last this year either!  

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It looks to me that Oct 2019 is the first "below average" month since March 2018, that's 18 consecutive months without a below average one!

 

 

 

 

Let's hope that we can get plenty of them over the winter which is when I am mostly going to actually want it to be colder than average.

 

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Well done to the winner for this month.

I'm pretty happy that my guess was quite low, now. Wasn't so sure for most of the month but it cooled down eventually.

 

Thanks, as always, to GW for all your effort in running this fun competition.

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From 8th place last month I took a gamble to try to catch the leaders. Thinking no one else would gamble this month.

Went high. Sods law for once it came in low.

You win some, you lose some.

Well done to Splinter.

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From 8th place last month I took a gamble to try to catch the leaders. Thinking no one else would gamble this month.

Went high. Sods law for once it came in low.

You win some, you lose some.

Well done to Splinter.

IMO Frank, it's the bold guesses (like yours) that make the thread more interesting, and I think GW would agree, because everybody hedging around the average zone (like me!) will always be more safe than others in general, but is never really playing.

I've tried to step out a bit the last few months. GW's insistence that the preds are PMd means we can't follow each other, which adds to the uncertainty and ergo the excitement.

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It looks to me that Oct 2019 is the first "below average" month since March 2018, that's 18 consecutive months without a below average one!

 

 

 

 

 

Yes that's right but only if your setting it against 61-90. We have had one or two set against 81-10 like May 2019.

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IMO Frank, it's the bold guesses (like yours) that make the thread more interesting, and I think GW would agree, because everybody hedging around the average zone (like me!) will always be more safe than others in general, but is never really playing.

I've tried to step out a bit the last few months. GW's insistence that the preds are PMd means we can't follow each other, which adds to the uncertainty and ergo the excitement.

Yes, I’d agree with that!  I’m a bit of an average snowflake really and it doesn’t pay!  

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I can't believe I won this month, although it is the first time I've put a bit of thought into my prediction. It was a big surprise to see I had the lowest prediction, especially as it seemed October would start with a cool spell.

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It was a big surprise to see I had the lowest prediction, especially as it seemed October would start with a cool spell.

The cool start to October was my thinking for a low guess as well.  I also thought we wouldn't get an 'Indian Summer' spell although frankly that was just luck as the near continent was very warm for much of October 😳

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The cool start to October was my thinking for a low guess as well.  I also thought we wouldn't get an 'Indian Summer' spell although frankly that was just luck as the near continent was very warm for much of October 😳

It’s nice to hear what other members thoughts were when making their predictions!  It winds the thread up nicely and adds to the friendly competitiveness.  I can’t wait to see what you’ve all plumped for this month!  

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It’s nice to hear what other members thoughts were when making their predictions!  It winds the thread up nicely and adds to the friendly competitiveness.  I can’t wait to see what you’ve all plumped for this month!  

Well, I generally look at the models to ten days out, add a bit on for you know what, make a guess and hope

It was much colder (though it's all relative - we've barely had a ground frost so far this autumn) than I'd guessed - but then it rained nearly every day and we didn't see many SWlies...

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Just realised, I never said thanks for the congrats last month, so uh - a very belated cheers? 

Congrats to Splinter for this month- just edged me out! Would have felt bonkers to 'win' two months in a row.

Very happy to have a cumulative of 0.17*C for two months though. Probably the best I've ever lucked out! 

 

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Well, I generally look at the models to ten days out, add a bit on for you know what, make a guess and hope

It was much colder (though it's all relative - we've barely had a ground frost so far this autumn) than I'd guessed - but then it rained nearly every day and we didn't see many SWlies...

I would think it’s harder for you in Devon to get a feel for what it will be like in the CET areas.  It should be easier for me because those areas are fairly similar to my local conditions, we had a few frosts last month!   Having said that, I’m not doing very well in the competition!  

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Apologies for the lengthy delay. Here are the charts for October. A rather cool month.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Table 1

Table 2

Annual CET competition - October update

Here is the late update for October.

Congratulations to splinter who had the closest prediction in October. This moves him up eight places into the top 10. Jerry P is also a big mover climbing six to sixth.

No change in the top 4 though. It is very tight indeed with two months to go. Col retains the lead for the fourth consecutive month.

TABLE 1

Thanks for the update GW, well done Splinter. Nice and close as we move through the last few weeks!😀

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