We have now entered not only a new month, but also the start of the meteorological autumn and in terms of our weather, this is a month which can be very difficult to predict since a lot can depend on what is happening in the Atlantic Hurricane Season in terms of any impacts which this might have on the Atlantic jet stream. In many cases, we may well be dealing with the effects of storms and hurricanes which have not yet even formed, and that can make everything that bit more difficult in terms of predicting what this month will be like.

The two main effects of that though, is that it might end up being drier than average as a result all of that, but this could equally result in it being wetter then Edinburgh. Here in Edinburgh, we have not had a drier than average month at either Edinburgh Gogarbank or the botanic gardens in Edinburgh since April 2019 and even that was the only dry month within what was actually a wet spring here in Edinburgh.

We have not had a drier than average season here in Edinburgh since the winter of 2018/19, but that was one of three drier than average winters which we have had in succession, and also marked the end of a long predominately dry spell which stretched all the way back from there, to May 2018. If this month ends up being drier than average overall, this thread will probably be fairly quiet as a result but if this month ends up being wetter than average overall, I will then expect this thread to be quite busy.

Whichever way that all turns out though, this is the very place to log and report those all important rainfall totals during this month as they happen.

 

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In the end, a total of 0.4 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during yesterday along with nothing at all at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, a total of 0.8 mm of rain has fallen during today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 4pm this afternoon along with 0.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 1.2 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 1.2 mm and the total for this year so far to 558.6 mm as at 4pm this afternoon.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 0.8 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 0.8 mm and the total for this year so far to 529.8 mm as at 4pm this afternoon.

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In the end, a total of 3.2 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during yesterday along with 4.6 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, a total of 0.4 mm of rain has fallen during today so far at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 7am this morning along with nothing at all at Edinburgh Gogarbank.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 3.6 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 3.6 mm and the total for this year so far to 561.0 mm as at 7am this morning.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 4.8 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 4.8 mm and the total for this year so far to 541.8 mm as at 7am this morning.

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In the end, a total of 2.8 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during yesterday along with 2.0 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, a total of 0.2 mm of rain has fallen during today so far at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 7am this morning along with nothing at all at Edinburgh Gogarbank.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 6.4 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 6.4 mm and the total for this year so far to 563.8 mm as at 7am this morning.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 6.8 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 6.8 mm and the total for this year so far to 543.8 mm as at 7am this morning.

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4.1 mm This Month

278.0 mm This Year.

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6.2 mm This month

Monday 9th and Wednesday 11th will see more rain. 

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In the end, a total of 1.8 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during yesterday along with 0.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, a total of 8.6 mm of rain has fallen during today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 7am this morning along with 8.4 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

That makes today the wettest day of this autumn so far at both of those stations and as it is still raining here as I write, those are unlikely to be the final totals for today.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 17.2 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 17.2 mm and the total for this year so far to 576.6 mm as at 7am this morning.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 15.6 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 15.6 mm and the total for this year so far to 552.6 mm as at 7am this morning.

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2.1 mm  This morning

6.1 mm   Month to date.

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In the end, a total of 12.4 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during yesterday along with 15.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, a total of 4.2 mm of rain has fallen during today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 7am this morning along with 2.0 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 25.2 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 25.2 mm and the total for this year so far to 582.6 mm as at 7am this morning.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 25.0 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 25.0 mm and the total for this year so far to 562.0 mm as at 7am this morning.

Gavin P. mentioned in a video during yesterday that this would probably end up being a very dry month overall, especially if the latest model output was correct about high pressure becoming more dominant from the end of this week onwards, possibly for quite a considerable amount of time.

However, that is clearly not the case here where so far, this is turning out to be yet another rather wet month, albeit not to the same extent as what we saw during the summer.

Furthermore, the latest BBC forecasts, suggest that even next weekend might not end up being all that dry here.

EDIT:

I've just noticed that the rain has got heavier here once again which means that those above totals which I have posted are unlikely to be today's final totals.

 

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A third of the way through September and the total to date here is 5.3mm.

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GFS is throwing out some of the driest ensembles I’ve ever seen at the moment.

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Seven rain days but only 11.4mm here.

So much for the predictions of more droughts but rain being heavier and more intense when it falls. The precise opposite is happening. It is raining more frequently but rainfall is more patchy and drizzly in nature. Much more likely to get a month with below average rainfall and above average rain days than the other way round.

I thought last September was bad with 17 rain days and only 26.8mm but this is on course to end up even worse if there isn't either proper rainfall or a proper settled spell.

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In the end, a total of 7.6 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during yesterday along with 4.6 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, a total of 2.2 mm of rain has fallen during today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 7am this morning along with 2.0 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 30.8 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 30.8 mm and the total for this year so far to 588.2 mm as at 7am this morning.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 29.6 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 29.6 mm and the total for this year so far to 566.6 mm as at 7am this morning.

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A short sharp shower yesterday brought the monthly total to date to 5.6mm.

 

GFS is throwing out some of the driest ensembles I’ve ever seen at the moment.

Yes, I've noticed that for the London ensembles - it's a bit concerning, isn't it?

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It's been a while since I last posted anything on this thread, and that is because in a month there is virtually nothing happening in terms of our weather, the same is also true with regards to rainfall. Over the last week or so, there has been very little in the way of rainfall here and now, we are in a dry spell which has just entered its fourth day.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 31.8 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 31.8 mm and the total for this year so far to 589.2 mm as at 6am this morning.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 30.4 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 30.4 mm and the total for this year so far to 567.4 mm as at 6am this morning.

According to the latest model output, the rest of this week looks very dry here and although it may become more unsettled next week, there are some good indications within that model output that even that unsettled spell of weather is likely to be no more than a brief interruption to that mainly dry theme.

Because of that, it is now looking almost certain that this month will now go down as our first drier than average month since April.

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Here in Hertfordshire, we are in our third year of below average rainfall and Affinity Water are talking about hosepipe bans starting in spring if the ground water situation doesn't improve over the winter.

https://www.affinitywater.co.uk/water-resources.aspx 

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Only 14mm to date.

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Only 14mm to date.

My rain gauge has recorded zero so far however, I think I'll have to check for spiders in the bucket before committing to that figure.

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12.8 mm This Month.

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In the end, a total of 17.6 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during yesterday along with 20.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh which makes yesterday, the wettest day of this autumn so far by quite a considerable amount at both of those stations.

In addition to that though, a total of 0.2 mm of rain has fallen during today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 7am this morning along with 0.4 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that takes the total for this month so far to 49.6 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 49.6 mm and the total for this year so far to 607.0 mm as at 7am this morning.

This means that a minimum total of 8.5 mm of rain now needs to fall at Edinburgh Gogarbank between now and the end of this month, in order for this month to go down as being wetter than average overall in terms of the actual rainfall amounts at that particular station.

This also means that at least 4 more official rain days need to occur at Edinburgh Gogarbank between now and the end of this month, in order for this month to go down as being wetter than average overall in terms of the number of official rain days at that particular station.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that takes the total for this month so far to 51.8 mm, the total for this autumn so far to 51.8 mm and the total for this year so far to 588.8 mm as at 7am this morning.

This means that a minimum total of 12.0 mm of rain now needs to fall at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh between now and the end of this month, in order for this month to go down as being wetter than average overall in terms of the actual rainfall amounts at that particular station.

This also means that at least 5 more official rain days need to occur at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh between now and the end of this month, in order for this month to go down as being wetter than average overall in terms of the number of official rain days at that particular station.

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