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Offline Saint Snow  
#81 Posted : 26 September 2019 15:46:29(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Posts: 43,868
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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Sadly, I think that’s too big an ask.  We only have four days to go and at this stage of the month it takes a big change in temperature to make much difference to the running mean. 

If only we hadn’t had clear night skies last week, bringing the low minima.  

 

In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment.

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#82 Posted : 26 September 2019 16:06:09(UTC)
Caz

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment.

 

I love your optimism! 

Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by.  Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#83 Posted : 26 September 2019 16:49:49(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
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Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C.

 The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C.

Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C. 

Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW!

The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference.

As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. 

I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time!

This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month. 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Col  
#84 Posted : 26 September 2019 18:21:15(UTC)
Col

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Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
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Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I love your optimism! 

Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by.  Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading.  

I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET?

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Col  
#85 Posted : 26 September 2019 18:23:10(UTC)
Col

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Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

 

Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW!

The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference.

As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. 

I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time!

This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month. 

I haven't got any nails left!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Whether Idle  
#86 Posted : 26 September 2019 18:25:17(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

I didn't know that?

I think youve been had, Col.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline Caz  
#87 Posted : 26 September 2019 19:43:19(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,408
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET?

It’s because final readings are taken at 9am GMT, although I think that will actually be on 1st October.  But it’s still an extra minimum to be taken into account.  Yes, the max on 30th September still counts but the min at 9am on 1st September would belong to August.

I’m pretty sure I’ve got this right but GW will be able to confirm or refute this. 

Edited by user 26 September 2019 19:56:19(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Caz  
#88 Posted : 26 September 2019 19:51:56(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

I think youve been had, Col.

No, honestly.  For once, I was being serious and I’m sure this has been explained before.  To me it makes sense (just) if the daily means are calculated from 9am to 9am.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline lanky  
#89 Posted : 27 September 2019 07:58:12(UTC)
lanky

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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

No, honestly.  For once, I was being serious and I’m sure this has been explained before.  To me it makes sense (just) if the daily means are calculated from 9am to 9am.  

You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant !

I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2

In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1

 

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline ARTzeman  
#90 Posted : 27 September 2019 10:02:17(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        14.6c       Anomaly        0.8c.   Provisional to 26th.  Treble checked. 

Metcheck                     14.28c     Anomaly        0.56c

Netweather                  14.83c     Anomaly        1.14c  

Peasedown St John     14.68c.    Anomaly      -0.4c     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Caz  
#91 Posted : 27 September 2019 16:52:13(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post

You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant !

I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2

In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1

  That’s how I understand it to be!  It’s GMT too, so at the moment the readings are taken at 10:00 as we’re on BST.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Caz  
#92 Posted : 27 September 2019 16:56:22(UTC)
Caz

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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley        14.6c       Anomaly        0.8c.   Provisional to 26th.  Treble checked. 

Metcheck                     14.28c     Anomaly        0.56c

Netweather                  14.83c     Anomaly        1.14c  

Peasedown St John     14.68c.    Anomaly      -0.4c     

  Well done Art!  

That’ll please Saint and Col!  Me too, but my 15c guess is well out of reach now!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#93 Posted : 28 September 2019 09:37:29(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.6c.       Anomaly        0.8c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                        14.22c.     Anomaly        0.50c

Netweather                     14.8c       Anomaly         1.11c

Peasedwn St John     14.67c.      Anomaly     -0.05c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#94 Posted : 28 September 2019 10:54:09(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Can we keep the provisional up to 14.5 month's end? Downjustment then say .3 would give 14.2. Am still happy with that.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Whether Idle  
#95 Posted : 28 September 2019 17:43:19(UTC)
Whether Idle

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So a finish between 14.0 and 14.4 looking likely then, depending upon the strength of the downgrade. I will plump for 14.25. 😀
With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline ARTzeman  
#96 Posted : 29 September 2019 09:35:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 26,067
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.        Anomaly        0.9c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                         14.25c       Anomaly         0.25c

Netweather                      14.79c       Anomaly        1.1c

Peasedown St John        14.5c       Anomaly      -0.22c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#97 Posted : 30 September 2019 09:33:41(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,067
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.         Anomaly      0.9c.     Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                         14.21c        Anomaly        0.49c

Netweather                      14.8c          Anomaly        1.11c

Peasedown St John         14.7c         Anomaly       -0.02c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline The Professional  
#98 Posted : 30 September 2019 09:57:24(UTC)
The Professional

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Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC)
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Location: Winchester

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.         Anomaly      0.9c.     Provisional to 29th.

 

Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever!

 

If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#99 Posted : 30 September 2019 17:06:44(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Looks good to me, for this month at least.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Caz  
#100 Posted : 30 September 2019 17:53:19(UTC)
Caz

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Posts: 18,408
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: The Professional Go to Quoted Post

Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever!

If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however.

I think 14.3c might have it!  That keeps Col in the lead but with less wiggle room.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

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