Originally Posted by: The Professional

An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd
14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd
14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd
Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd
13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd
13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th
Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

Cheers for working that lot out!

I had looked at this and realised that something around 14.6 would enable me to preserve my lead. That is right up at the top end of my expectations now though. I really need the upcoming few warm days to make a big difference, if it doesn't then I expect a big chunk will be taken out of my lead come month end.

Met Office Hadley        14.1c        Anomaly        -0.0c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     13.85c      Anomaly        0.12c

Netweather                  14.41c       Anomaly       0.72c

PSJ                              14.6c        Anomaly       -0.16c.   

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

 As we enter the final quarter of the year, predicting close to the actual always gets more tricky, just as it was in the first quarter of the year.  Cumulative errors tend to be a lot lower in the 6 months April-September, than the 6 months either side.  For me, its now about whether my 5.99 all time low  cumulative error in 2016 will be beaten.  Again this year, as last, there is a fair chance.  I am way off the pace this year, in large part due to February.  But that is what makes the competition so engrossing.  Given the volatility that is possible in the CET, particularly in November and December, its going to be an interesting few months in this great competition.

The margin for error is most certainly greater in winter than it is in summer. I worked this out once, the difference between the absolute highest & lowest CET vakues is July is around 6C but in January more like 10C. An interesting few months indeed, my only regret is that I have been posting here since Jan 2013 yet this is the first year I have entered the CET competition!

Funnily enough, next week may have a higher CET mean than this week, depending on the ratio of tropical maritime to polar maritime air across the UK. 

GFS has quite a bit more of the latter than ECM for the 2nd half of next week, but despite that, numerous nights widely staying in double digits lead me to anticipate that it would still produce a mean at least on a par with this week's. I've not had the time this evening to process the numbers - might have a go with some of tomorrow's runs.

Met Office Hadley             14.0c.        Anomaly       -0.0c Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          13.83c       Anomaly       0.11c

Netweather                       14.4c         Anomaly       0.71c

PSJ                                   14.43c       Anomaly       -0.29c.

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman

Met Office Hadley             14.0c.        Anomaly       -0.0c Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          13.83c       Anomaly       0.11c

Netweather                       14.4c         Anomaly       0.71c

PSJ                                   14.43c       Anomaly       -0.29c.

We’ve had a few cracking clear days with low 20 temps but unfortunately the clear sky has meant low temps at night, increasing the diurnal difference and lowering the mean.  Ironically, as mentioned already, with cloudier and poorer weather next week, the daily mean should be higher as the nights are milder. 

I started the competition in its current form in 2009. So this is year 11.

I have been taking a bit of a break for the past few weeks to enjoy the summer weather. Also been on holiday for the past 2 weeks. So not been keeping my regular CET tracker up to date. Will get that going again in October.

The CET mean by my calculations for the past 5 days has been 14.9C, 12.4C, 11.3C, 13.3C, 14.1C.

Over the rest of the month the mean should climb very slightly. The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C.

Based on the Hadley provisional mean of 14.0C to the 19th, the latest output would suggest a finishing CET of 14.25C before adjustments. The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C.

Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C. 

Met Office Hadley          14.1c.       Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                       13.82c      Anomaly      0.14c

Netweather                    14.42c      Anomaly      0.73c

Peasedown St John         14.44c      Anomaly      -0.44c.