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Offline ARTzeman  
#41 Posted : 17 September 2019 09:46:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        14.3c        Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                     14.04c      Anomaly      0.32c

Netweather                  14.63c      Anomaly      0.9o4c

Peasedown St john        14.8c       Anomaly      0.6c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online four  
#42 Posted : 18 September 2019 06:45:29(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,399
Location: N.Y.Moors

The recent cold nights and coolish days have had a marked effect, with mean this morning on 11.6C here (-0.5C)
Offline Bertwhistle  
#43 Posted : 18 September 2019 16:23:38(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Posts: 5,718
Location: Central Southern England

14.2°C to 17th- that's lower than I was hoping for at this stage, with the 2-day warm spell gone.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Caz  
#44 Posted : 18 September 2019 16:52:41(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,274
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

14.2°C to 17th- that's lower than I was hoping for at this stage, with the 2-day warm spell gone.

Me too!  Daytime temps just haven’t been enough to make up the  lows at night.  With minima around 5c we’d need to get into mid 20’s during the day, a really big ask!  What we need is cloud at night. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline The Professional  
#45 Posted : 19 September 2019 08:54:23(UTC)
The Professional

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 151
United Kingdom
Location: Winchester

An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd

14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd

14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd

Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd

13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd

13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

Online Col  
#46 Posted : 19 September 2019 09:24:27(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 915
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: The Professional Go to Quoted Post
An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd
14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd
14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd
Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd
13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd
13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th
Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

Cheers for working that lot out!

I had looked at this and realised that something around 14.6 would enable me to preserve my lead. That is right up at the top end of my expectations now though. I really need the upcoming few warm days to make a big difference, if it doesn't then I expect a big chunk will be taken out of my lead come month end.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Gusty  
#47 Posted : 19 September 2019 09:59:01(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,266
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 Cheers for working that lot out!

I had looked at this and realised that something around 14.6 would enable me to preserve my lead. That is right up at the top end of my expectations now though. I really need the upcoming few warm days to make a big difference, if it doesn't then I expect a big chunk will be taken out of my lead come month end.

Your high September prediction really has offered a lifeline to the chasing pack. HP centred over the UK allowing for cold surface nights rather than humid SSW'lies with the high to our east appear to have scuppered a really warm month. Any peaks in temperature in an attempt to raise the average really are struggling against the background declining seasonal tide now.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline ARTzeman  
#48 Posted : 19 September 2019 10:29:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        14.1c        Anomaly        -0.0c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     13.85c      Anomaly        0.12c

Netweather                  14.41c       Anomaly       0.72c

PSJ                              14.6c        Anomaly       -0.16c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Whether Idle  
#49 Posted : 19 September 2019 17:29:56(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,233
Man
Location: Dover

 As we enter the final quarter of the year, predicting close to the actual always gets more tricky, just as it was in the first quarter of the year.  Cumulative errors tend to be a lot lower in the 6 months April-September, than the 6 months either side.  For me, its now about whether my 5.99 all time low  cumulative error in 2016 will be beaten.  Again this year, as last, there is a fair chance.  I am way off the pace this year, in large part due to February.  But that is what makes the competition so engrossing.  Given the volatility that is possible in the CET, particularly in November and December, its going to be an interesting few months in this great competition.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Online Col  
#50 Posted : 19 September 2019 18:14:47(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 915
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 As we enter the final quarter of the year, predicting close to the actual always gets more tricky, just as it was in the first quarter of the year.  Cumulative errors tend to be a lot lower in the 6 months April-September, than the 6 months either side.  For me, its now about whether my 5.99 all time low  cumulative error in 2016 will be beaten.  Again this year, as last, there is a fair chance.  I am way off the pace this year, in large part due to February.  But that is what makes the competition so engrossing.  Given the volatility that is possible in the CET, particularly in November and December, its going to be an interesting few months in this great competition.

The margin for error is most certainly greater in winter than it is in summer. I worked this out once, the difference between the absolute highest & lowest CET vakues is July is around 6C but in January more like 10C. An interesting few months indeed, my only regret is that I have been posting here since Jan 2013 yet this is the first year I have entered the CET competition!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Whether Idle  
#51 Posted : 19 September 2019 18:27:18(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Posts: 8,233
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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

The margin for error is most certainly greater in winter than it is in summer. I worked this out once, the difference between the absolute highest & lowest CET vakues is July is around 6C but in January more like 10C. An interesting few months indeed, my only regret is that I have been posting here since Jan 2013 yet this is the first year I have entered the CET competition!

It is better to be late to the party than miss it altogether.  I have been on this site since 2003 and latterly 2006, and I only joined in the CET competition  for 2015 I think. Its been going at least 10 years, I'm sure someone can correct me, and will!

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline Stormchaser  
#52 Posted : 19 September 2019 20:01:16(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,764
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Location: West Hants

Funnily enough, next week may have a higher CET mean than this week, depending on the ratio of tropical maritime to polar maritime air across the UK. 

GFS has quite a bit more of the latter than ECM for the 2nd half of next week, but despite that, numerous nights widely staying in double digits lead me to anticipate that it would still produce a mean at least on a par with this week's. I've not had the time this evening to process the numbers - might have a go with some of tomorrow's runs.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline marting  
#53 Posted : 19 September 2019 20:11:18(UTC)
marting

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 465
Man
Location: Greasby, Wirral

Thanks to the Professional for his number crunching, makes interesting reading!

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

The margin for error is most certainly greater in winter than it is in summer. I worked this out once, the difference between the absolute highest & lowest CET vakues is July is around 6C but in January more like 10C. An interesting few months indeed, my only regret is that I have been posting here since Jan 2013 yet this is the first year I have entered the CET competition!

as you say Col, the winter months do open up some potential for significant swings keeping it interesting right to the end. 👍

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Offline ARTzeman  
#54 Posted : 20 September 2019 11:11:26(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley             14.0c.        Anomaly       -0.0c Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          13.83c       Anomaly       0.11c

Netweather                       14.4c         Anomaly       0.71c

PSJ                                   14.43c       Anomaly       -0.29c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Saint Snow  
#55 Posted : 20 September 2019 14:28:22(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,622
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

It is better to be late to the party than miss it altogether.  I have been on this site since 2003 and latterly 2006, and I only joined in the CET competition  for 2015 I think. Its been going at least 10 years, I'm sure someone can correct me, and will!

 

I think that there was a more informal monthly comp, which evolved into a monthly & yearly comp in 2008 or 2009. 

2009 was the first year I entered and was a little less sophisticated than now, and I think the winner manipulated the fact that you didn't have to PM any forecasts to GW to calculate what they needed to forecast in December after waiting for all other entries to be made, in order to win.

 

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#56 Posted : 20 September 2019 14:58:49(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,274
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley             14.0c.        Anomaly       -0.0c Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          13.83c       Anomaly       0.11c

Netweather                       14.4c         Anomaly       0.71c

PSJ                                   14.43c       Anomaly       -0.29c.

That could be the lowest it gets now.  The current output is suggesting the mean will rise next week due to milder nights.

We’ve had a few cracking clear days with low 20 temps but unfortunately the clear sky has meant low temps at night, increasing the diurnal difference and lowering the mean.  Ironically, as mentioned already, with cloudier and poorer weather next week, the daily mean should be higher as the nights are milder. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline GezM  
#57 Posted : 20 September 2019 23:06:21(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 717
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

2009 was the first year I entered and was a little less sophisticated than now, and I think the winner manipulated the fact that you didn't have to PM any forecasts to GW to calculate what they needed to forecast in December after waiting for all other entries to be made, in order to win.

 

Yes. I remember that December well! I think we both lost out that time.....

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Global Warming  
#58 Posted : 21 September 2019 08:38:45(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

I started the competition in its current form in 2009. So this is year 11.

I have been taking a bit of a break for the past few weeks to enjoy the summer weather. Also been on holiday for the past 2 weeks. So not been keeping my regular CET tracker up to date. Will get that going again in October.

The CET mean by my calculations for the past 5 days has been 14.9C, 12.4C, 11.3C, 13.3C, 14.1C.

Over the rest of the month the mean should climb very slightly. The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C.

Based on the Hadley provisional mean of 14.0C to the 19th, the latest output would suggest a finishing CET of 14.25C before adjustments. The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C.

Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C. 

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Saint Snow  
#59 Posted : 21 September 2019 09:17:46(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,622
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Yes. I remember that December well! I think we both lost out that time.....

 

Well you might have 

<<< evil laugh >>>

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#60 Posted : 21 September 2019 10:27:48(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          14.1c.       Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                       13.82c      Anomaly      0.14c

Netweather                    14.42c      Anomaly      0.73c

Peasedown St John         14.44c      Anomaly      -0.44c.      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

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