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Offline Stormchaser  
#61 Posted : 21 September 2019 17:32:01(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,753
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Location: West Hants

Finally got to look at some numbers too, out of interest.

This current week's mean minimum will likely be somewhere in the mid-single digits, despite the one for Sunday being on the mild side.

The mean maximum could be in the high teens or low 20s. As GW's informative update shows us, this has resulted in CET means near or a tad below average overall - except perhaps for today, which we don't know the final obs for yet. Tomorrow might do enough to mean the CET was very near average for the week as a whole.

Looking at next week and using GFS raw numbers with a slight upward bias adjustment of +0.5*C applied, the mean CET max may only be in the low or mid-17s, a little below par for the time of year. By contrast, however, the mean min looks to be in the mid-high 11s - and that's with the bias adjustment being less than it justifiably could be (I'm a cautious fellow!). Notably mild for late September.

An above-average overall CET mean for the week results. An estimate using the 12z GFS alone gives me 14.5*C to 29th, before a cooler 30th drops it to 14.4*C. Note, though, that my estimates lack the level of precision that GW's do. Even so - I see a finish (after adjustments) just about in the 14s as a possibility. Not something I'd actually bet on though .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#62 Posted : 21 September 2019 19:02:09(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,176
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

  Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always.  They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers!  Me!  

15c?  Doh!  Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights!  I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Stormchaser  
#63 Posted : 21 September 2019 19:31:21(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,753
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Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

  Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always.  They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers!  Me!  

15c?  Doh!  Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights!  I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!   

You're most welcome Caz 

I think you're being a little hard on yourself here by the way - with a brisk flow from anywhere between southwesterly (tropical maritime air) and southeasterly (drier air but still capable in a strong flow), high pressure has been known to bring warm days without cold nights even very late in the month.

Indeed, there was a time when the models were consistently predicting that sort of setup to dominate the week just gone and even into next week. That's when thoughts of final CETs somewhere in the 15s were circulating.

It took a sudden large uptick in tropical cyclone activity, causing the jet stream to undertake 'narrower' loops (reaching more north and south, but less west and east), to force the ridge to drift a little west of the UK and then slowly back over, leading to an import of fresh air which then stagnated overhead and created near-optimal conditions for the lowest CET minimums achievable at this time of year (except perhaps with a rare Arctic northerly).

So, with a little luck, I think you could easily have been right on the money this month .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#64 Posted : 22 September 2019 06:38:13(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,176
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

You’re too kind SC!    But thank you for your faith and your analysis.

You’re right!  The elements are finely balanced in such a small maritime landmass, which is what makes the British weather so fickle and so interesting!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online ARTzeman  
#65 Posted : 22 September 2019 09:50:34(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,753
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          14.2c.      Anomaly       0.3c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       14.03c     Anomaly       0.30c

Netweather                    14.54c     Anomaly       0.85c

Peasedown St John        14.62c     Anomaly       -0.1c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

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