Why is it that every URL or external link i click on takes me to this page????

Forum settings??

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twousers/forum-settings.aspx

Read what the page says and select the required options.

There seems to be an abundance of berries in the hedgerows this year.  Mr Foggitt would have said this is to provide food for wildlife during the harsh winter, which is to come. We’ll see!

That is old folklore. My grandmother used to say that an abundance of hedgerow berries presaged a harsh winter. Naturally, it does nothing of the sort, it merely reflects on the previous seasons leading up to an autumn abundance.

There is only one indicator at the moment which could presage a decent winter, and that is that we are in the middle of a deep solar minimum. But as ever, nothing is guaranteed and a whole range of factors have to fall into place if we are to get a persistent negative NAO signature this coming winter.

But I am ever hopeful

Didn't we have a solar minimum about a decade ago, around the time of the big freezes of December 2009/January 2010 and then December 2010? I seem to remember reading back then that we were in a period of quite low solar activity, but I could be wrong about that.

Didn't we have a solar minimum about a decade ago, around the time of the big freezes of December 2009/January 2010 and then December 2010? I seem to remember reading back then that we were in a period of quite low solar activity, but I could be wrong about that.

Absolutely correct David - that winter came towards the end of the last solar minimum, which was also a deep and protracted one lasting through 2008 and 2009.

But I am ever hopeful

The 'solar minimum' does not seem to be doing much for the Arctic ice though. Lowest levels on record around the north coast of Alaska:

https://time.com/5646168/alaska-sea-ice-melted/

 

The 'solar minimum' does not seem to be doing much for the Arctic ice though. Lowest levels on record around the north coast of Alaska:

https://time.com/5646168/alaska-sea-ice-melted/

 

There has been Northern Blocking since May, which means higher temps in the Arctic due to the High pressure over Greenland , North Pole areas

 

The 'solar minimum' does not seem to be doing much for the Arctic ice though. Lowest levels on record around the north coast of Alaska:

https://time.com/5646168/alaska-sea-ice-melted/

 

As severnside has put above, the analogue from periods like the Maunder Minimum, is a propensity for increased northern blocking.

That can have perverse effects, regardless of AGW. Unfortunately, we don't have satellite images of the Polar regions from the 17th century to see what the effects might then have been, but we do know that western Europe experienced a run of colder than usual winters.

 

As severnside has put above, the analogue from periods like the Maunder Minimum, is a propensity for increased northern blocking.

That can have perverse effects, regardless of AGW. Unfortunately, we don't have satellite images of the Polar regions from the 17th century to see what the effects might then have been, but we do know that western Europe experienced a run of colder than usual winters.

Yes, true.

I suppose one crumb of comfort for 'coldies' is that a warm Arctic preceded the onset of the last ice-age. 

Thanks Doc!!

BUT

About as Bad as it get's if it's blocking and cold you're looking for!???

I think this is a little OTT!?

Just for a laugh and thank goodness it;s 3 months out!??

Is this or is this not correct?? - drew the jet stream and pressure systems!!

Surely if this is correct - it's as bad as it get's for anyone wanting a cold and blocked winter?

Still early days of course!??

Thanks Doc!!

BUT

About as Bad as it get's if it's blocking and cold you're looking for!???

I think this is a little OTT!?

Just for a laugh and thank goodness it;s 3 months out!??

It's a horrid outlook by the GLOSEA and unfortunately the EC seasonal concurs.

I must admit, I've been struggling to pin down what could be driving those two long-range models to produce such an extreme +NAO signal for the upcoming winter months.

• Lag from solar maximum favouring +NAO? Nope - we're past that.


• Westerly QBO? Perhaps weakly in the lowest layers of the stratosphere during the 1st half of winter - not nearly enough to suggest a big +NAO.


• La Nina? Nope - there have been hints of one trying to get going lately, but the models aren't seeing it being successful. In fact most, including GloSea for example, foresee a warm-neutral situation with the warmth focused in the Central Pacific. Like a very weak 'Modoki El Nino'. That if anything supports a -NAO!


• Low Arctic Sea Ice? Not likely - the influence on atmospheric patterns is debatable, but of the proposed linkages that are out there, the type of response is some form of increased high latitude blocking. Not a +NAO.


• North Atlantic SST anomaly pattern? Probably not - we've had a warm tripole pattern for most of the past few months, which has shown some correspondence to a -NAO instead. Neither of the models show much change to this for the winter.

So yeah... these model projections are very perplexing. Based on the above factors, I'd expect at worst a 'mixed' winter with some wintry episodes of appreciable nature for most parts of the UK (with the usual struggles in far S and SW), and at best something truly memorable for its quantity and coverage of cold, snowy weather.

One thing that does stand out to me as a possible 'reasoning' is a strong persistence of weather patterns from what's taking shape across the N. Atlantic to Europe sector this month and for that matter, has been quite common this year as a whole.

Maybe some manner of feedback mechanism is foreseen to sustain unusually high European heights, but it seems a bit of a weak approach to me, so I'm not convinced it can just be that.

If anyone can solve this riddle, I shall bow to them (albeit not likely in person 😛 ).

 

That is old folklore. My grandmother used to say that an abundance of hedgerow berries presaged a harsh winter. Naturally, it does nothing of the sort, it merely reflects on the previous seasons leading up to an autumn abundance.

There is only one indicator at the moment which could presage a decent winter, and that is that we are in the middle of a deep solar minimum. But as ever, nothing is guaranteed and a whole range of factors have to fall into place if we are to get a persistent negative NAO signature this coming winter.

But I am ever hopeful

Exactly right. It's like a SSW: one part of a complex jigsaw puzzle.

But whatever the Synoptics and other factors, the fact is that the world is a degree (C) warmer, the seas are warmer and the Arctic is much warmer, all of which will tend to make cold spells just a little less severe. Quite a few people have commented on how northerlies carry less punch in the south than used to be the case, which proves the point.

I have read comments from some people in the past that in order for southern areas (say south of the Midlands) to get really notable wintry spells, set-ups like that which produced the Beast from the East in late Feb/early March 2018 tend to be better in this regard than direct northerly spells. I think that in the main, northerlies tend to produce more by way of wintry weather in parts of Scotland and northern England than they do in aread further south and the north is less sheltered from their effects.

The Beast from the East may well have been a short-lived affair last year but it was a snowfall I don't think I will ever forget for the rest of my days, given the incredible amount of snow we had. Given that it happened right at the end of the meterorogical winter, I have often wondered how much more severe it might have been had in occured earlier in the season. Quite honestly, it was severe enough in my opinion!

Quite a few people have commented on how northerlies carry less punch in the south than used to be the case, which proves the point.

And not just the south of England. I live in a region of Ireland that is prone to real deal snowy northerlies, and I can confirm that they have become a lot less potent in recent years and honestly speaking, they are now no better than the more common slop we get from returning mP SW'lys.

I can't comment about anywhere else, but from what I recall of recent winters, there has been a real lack of any notable northerly wintry spells of any type, be they notable ones or brief ones which weren't that potent.

In my experience, northerlies in winter don't tend to last that long and more often than not come on the back of an atlantic LP system moving across the UK and into Europe. I could be wrong, but I think the 09/10 severe winter spell began with a northerly outbreak.

I think we’re reading to much into them at such an early stage to be honest.Like I said above GLOSEA and the EC seasonal were constantly wrong in their outlooks, to the point which it became a bit of standing joke.

Yes true I guess!! I remember the Met Office Glosea5 seasonal for Dec/Jan/Feb forecast extensive northern blocking!! But turned out we continued to see a strengthened PV a positive AO and +NAO and a weak El Nino developing in combination with a developing westerly QBO - we ended up with the warmest February ever!? - despite the SSW!! =crazy!? Even the BCC were wrong in their seasonal model as well as others - ECMWF was poor as well?

I do struggle to see how they SEE SUCH a strong PV!?? Given this will be the true solar minimum winter, no signs of a El Nino and we are transferring from westerly to and easterly QBO as well!?

 

 

Yes true I guess!! I remember the Met Office Glosea5 seasonal for Dec/Jan/Feb forecast extensive northern blocking!! But turned out we continued to see a strengthened PV a positive AO and +NAO and a weak El Nino developing in combination with a developing westerly QBO - we ended up with the warmest February ever!? - despite the SSW!! =crazy!? Even the BCC were wrong in their seasonal model as well as others - ECMWF was poor as well?

I do struggle to see how they SEE SUCH a strong PV!?? Given this will be the true solar minimum winter, no signs of a El Nino and we are transferring from westerly to and easterly QBO as well!?

Not sure that was the case, despite the unsually warm spell during mid-late February. I seem to remember reading on this forum not long afterwards that February 1998 (and possibly 2002 as well) had a warmer overall CET than the same month this year did. This was likely due to Feb 1998 being mild/very mild until almost the end of the month whereas that month this year did start off quite cold in places.

I stand corrected if I am wrong about that though.