As a slight aside does anyone else here always find the most exciting part of the "winter" to be November (hence the "") and December? Even if it snows in Jan, Feb or Mar the reality never matches the expectation as the days shorten and Xmas approaches.  

As a slight aside does anyone else here always find the most exciting part of the "winter" to be November (hence the "") and December? Even if it snows in Jan, Feb or Mar the reality never matches the expectation as the days shorten and Xmas approaches?  

In terms of pre-spell excitement, yes definitely. But once it falls, I'm giddy as a goat anyway.

I do think that the lead-up to Xmas is the very best and most magical time for snow, though. Especially when it never gets properly light during a day of heavy clouds, and there are Xmas lights twinkling through the murk, and reflecting off the snow.

The Decembers of 09 & 10 were something special - but I wish they were commonplace!! (we even had a light fall in early Dec 11 that put down a dusting)

Yes, I prefer it then especially in terms of snow as it brightens up long dark days and to me at least is preferable to mild, wet, stormy and damaging conditions. Also, in December “deep lasting cold” feels more likely with shorter daylight hours and if we have “banked” an early cold spell (2010 style) then it takes the frustration out of peering into FI for that elusive cold snap/spell/day.

Although if we get a snowy spell or snap in October I count that as a bonus rather than any of the winter allocation. 

As a slight aside does anyone else here always find the most exciting part of the "winter" to be November (hence the "") and December? Even if it snows in Jan, Feb or Mar the reality never matches the expectation as the days shorten and Xmas approaches.  

NO!

No sun — no moon! 
No morn — no noon — 
No dawn — no dusk — no proper time of day.
 
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease, 
No comfortable feel in any member — 
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees, 
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! — 
November!

Thomas Hood

I'm with Saint Snow - the Decembers of 2009 and 2010 were special.

2009 because the snow started to fall lightly during the work Xmas lunch. Then got better and better. Only frustration was a slightly less cold Xmas day (with dreaded easterly component) meant although there was snow on the ground, there was only cold rain falling that day. I remember driving back from Dundee on New Year's Day night and returning to Aberdeenshire where the snow was hanging as thickly as I'd ever seen it from the rooftops. No wonder my gutter collapsed that winter!

It was also a novelty that the snow lasted right through to mid January. Many a year a white xmas has given way to a green new year.

 

The Decembers of 09 & 10 were something special - but I wish they were commonplace!! (we even had a light fall in early Dec 11 that put down a dusting)

 

Quite true. We had snow lying for 4 days - that counts as special down here

As a slight aside does anyone else here always find the most exciting part of the "winter" to be November (hence the "") and December? Even if it snows in Jan, Feb or Mar the reality never matches the expectation as the days shorten and Xmas approaches.  

Yes, definitely. I used to fantasise about being alive in November 1890 for that reason. 2010 filled my bucket adequately. Talking about the tree going up, carol practice starts in school, we dust off Patrick Stewart's 1999 A Christmas Carol and I sometimes crack the first sloe gin. First fire is lit, chart watching becomes a 12 hour additional job, last leaves fall and it gets deliciously dark at 4.30.

 

NO!

No sun — no moon! 
No morn — no noon — 
No dawn — no dusk — no proper time of day.
 
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease, 
No comfortable feel in any member — 
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees, 
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! — 
November!

Thomas Hood

I think Thomas was living too truly to his name. Needed to open his eyes (and mind) a bit more!

 

I think Thomas was living too truly to his name. Needed to open his eyes (and mind) a bit more!

Of course, the 2010/11 spell started on 24 November here so we had a full week of proper snowy weather in autumn...

Took me 3 hours to get home that day.  Normally took 40 minutes but heavy snow started as people were leaving work.

 

Of course, the 2010/11 spell started on 24 November here so we had a full week of proper snowy weather in autumn...

Took me 3 hours to get home that day.  Normally took 40 minutes but heavy snow started as people were leaving work.

Yep, the NE of the UK certainly had the best of that spell. We had almost constant - and increasing - cold, but it was bone dry and I was biting my nails until a week before the 'big day', jealously watching news bulletins showing some breathtaking scenes. 

 

 

I get that but by just saying each year nothing interesting is going to happen almost defeats the object of enjoying discussion - the same people were saying the same thing in 2009 & look what happened... 

I think the weather over the last decade but also now increasingly over the last 2-3 years has become so adverse to the norm with more & more focus on extremes then its only a matter of time that the UK hits the jackpot - of course it was only a matter of time anyway but those odds are greatly reduced based on the increased incidence of blocked flows...

Anyway lets see what happens with the Stratospheric jet to the midpoint of Sept where the bandwidth opens out a lot more...

I think that some areas have "hit the jackpot" recently. My location recorded a foot or so of level lying snow in March 2018, together with ice days. We've probably only seen snowfalls of that kind here on a couple of occasions in the past hundred years. During that winter,  I recorded more lying snow events over the whole winter than I have ever seen before, with lying snow occurring every month from December to March.

Forecasting is all a matter of possibilities and probabilities  endless shades of grey. Anything's possible in any given winter( in spite of the background signals). Your first paragraph is dead right- let's postpone any gloom and despondency until next March at least. 

No sun — no moon! 
No morn — no noon — 
No dawn — no dusk — no proper time of day.
 
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease, 
No comfortable feel in any member — 
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees, 
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! — 
November!

Richardabdn

 

I think Thomas was living too truly to his name. Needed to open his eyes (and mind) a bit more!

He was writing 200 years ago. Its a mark of how things (climate, health, standard of living, pollution in London) have changed.

He was writing 200 years ago. Its a mark of how things (climate, health, standard of living, pollution in London) have changed.

Our house is 300 years old, originally heated with open fires and without insulation other than window shutters. With gas, electricity and a log burner and a number of insulation measures [less than perfect], it is difficult to imagine how cold it would have been in winter. The winter before last was dire.

At least we did not have to pee in a pot and sling it out the window! ["chamber lees"] Nor do we have to consider sewing the kids into their clothes for the winter.

Roger

 

Our house is 300 years old, originally heated with open fires and without insulation other than window shutters. With gas, electricity and a log burner and a number of insulation measures [less than perfect], it is difficult to imagine how cold it would have been in winter. The winter before last was dire.

At least we did not have to pee in a pot and sling it out the window! ["chamber lees"] Nor do we have to consider sewing the kids into their clothes for the winter.

Roger

Indeed. As an aside I'm just listening to a radio programme about the York Minister fire. I also recall the Notre Dame fire. I bet houses and churches were damper back in Hood's time too...

Next winter? Mild or very mild, possibly record breakingly so plus a couple of short lived snowfalls and the odd frost.

On the face of it, we look to have one of the best combinations of pattern drivers since 2009/10 for a cold winter.

We're far enough after the last solar maximum to be free of the lagged +NAO forcing, the desending E QBO should be helpful at least by January, ENSO looks weak one way or the other, and low Arctic sea ice shows some interesting potential to mess with the polar vortex structure.

However, recent winters have shown us that the timing of shorter-timescale fluctuations, such as tropical MJO activity, tends to be the critical factor - and one we can't reliably anticipate more than a fortnight ahead, if even that.

Now in theory, with helpful pattern drivers in place all winter, there should be at least one good MJO (or other tropical wave) timing, right? Well, we never quite achieved that last winter, despite three MJO propagations, so nope, not neccesarily!

There's also the problem that an exceptionally disorganised polar vortex poses when it comes to achieving major stratospheric warming events and, if and when they happen, having the associated anomalies downwell to the troposphere.

As far as I've come to understand it, the most efficient transport of anomalous heat to the mid then upper stratosphere occurs when there's a single, large polar vortex, on the periphery of which is a 'surf zone' that aids the upward transport. So if you have a vortex that keeps stretching and splitting in the lower levels especially, as we've had in many recent winters, it takes a lot more effort from the troposphere to bring about a major SSW.

Now, as we saw last winter, this can be achieved - likely aided by the increased fluxes above the Arctic associated with all the extra open water compared to decades past - but when it happens with an already very disorganised polar vortex, the downwell process is interfered with by all sorts of inconsistencies in circulation that aren't present with an organised polar vortex. We're left with a 'patchy downwell' with relatively benign, patchy HLB resulting.

I think when it comes to major SSWs assaulting the polar vortex, the phrase 'the bigger they are, the harder they fall' applies very strongly.

With all this in mind, I'll find it encouraging if the polar vortex manages to become organised to a near-average extent sometime between late Oct and mid-Nov. Odds are that if it does, it will quickly come under fire from a lot of troposphere-stratosphere wave activity flux, giving rise to the potential for an early major SSW or, perhaps, the fabled 'Canadian Warming'. 

There is an alternative route, which is to keep the lower vortex weak and disorganised to such an extreme extent that regional HLB is able to dominate the tropospheric pattern, but then we're relying on forcing from the tropics and oceanic SST patterns to anchor that HLB where we'd like it. It's more risky, and less likely to produce a really prolonged cold spell, but I wonder if a hostile lower stratosphere, related to the Arctic climate changes, might leave it us our only option most (or all...) winters when it comes to more than transient Nov-Dec cold+snow weather outbreaks.

Damp simply didn't exist in old houses, precisely because they were not insulated. Draughty windows and doors, open chimneys, lack of loft insulation, etc. ensured that condensation had no chance to form. They were consequently warmer too (think of the way putting on damp clothes makes you feel colder as the moisture conducts body heat away - damp walls and lofts have the same effect on a building).

The houses only became cold when we started insulating them and rendering/plastering them with cheap but non-breathable cement/gypsum.

_______________________

And let's hear it for for late-season snow. Length of day and height of sun are irrelevant when there isn't any sun. Sledging in Somerset at just 30m above sea level as late as 16th March?  No problem in 2018!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwWPlT371I8

Damp simply didn't exist in old houses, precisely because they were not insulated. Draughty windows and doors, open chimneys, lack of loft insulation, etc. ensured that condensation had no chance to form. They were consequently warmer too (think of the way putting on damp clothes makes you feel colder as the moisture conducts body heat away - damp walls and lofts have the same effect on a building).

The houses only became cold when we started insulating them and rendering/plastering them with cheap but non-breathable cement/gypsum.

 

You would be right for this house, too, FB. It was originally thatched - the high gables give that away - and added evidence was a residue of thatch in the roof space. It went over later to [probably] tile and latterly asbestos-sement tiles!   It is now slate - as required by the conservation people. A thatch extending out over the walls would have preserved a more even temperature in winter and summer and by extending well over the brick walls would have mitigated against damp. Natural drafts would have allowed evaporation within the building.

Roger

As a slight aside does anyone else here always find the most exciting part of the "winter" to be November (hence the "") and December? Even if it snows in Jan, Feb or Mar the reality never matches the expectation as the days shorten and Xmas approaches.  

Absolutely, I prefer snow in November & December and as Saint says the Xmas period is the sweet spot. Give me 20C and sunshine in February & March instead! 

 

He was writing 200 years ago. Its a mark of how things (climate, health, standard of living, pollution in London) have changed.

Gilbert White was writing 50 years before that, and appreciated as well as struggled with the beauty of winter!