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Offline warrenb  
#1 Posted : 09 August 2019 10:31:30(UTC)
warrenb

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Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Many events have been cancelled here in the SE due to the wind warning out for tomorrow. Huge rain warnings out for today and tomorrow, but at the end of the day this is just your common low pressure system.


Are we in danger of becoming to complacent over the multitude of warnings, and when a genuine one is required, we either ignore or diregard.

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Offline Roger Parsons  
#2 Posted : 09 August 2019 11:14:06(UTC)
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Location: Lincolnshire

Originally Posted by: warrenb Go to Quoted Post


Many events have been cancelled here in the SE due to the wind warning out for tomorrow. Huge rain warnings out for today and tomorrow, but at the end of the day this is just your common low pressure system.


Are we in danger of becoming to complacent over the multitude of warnings, and when a genuine one is required, we either ignore or diregard.



A fair comment Warren. I spent much of yesterday communicating decisions to cancel 2 natural history field meetings on Saturday. In both cases woodland was involved and the owners were concerned at the possible risk to the public. Both meetings have now been rescheduled. Had these gone ahead trusting to probability and human common sense it could have proved a bad decision. The question is how late do you leave things before cancelling? I'd spent the past week promoting the same events and the organisers knew about the Yellow Warnings!


Roger


 

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
No county (Lincolnshire) has better churches and worse houses. The poorer sort of people wash their clothes with hog's dung, and burn dried cow's dung for want of better fuel; whence comes the Lincolnshire proverb: "Where the hogs shite soap and the cows shite fire".
Curiosities of Great Britain (c.1780)
Offline Russwirral  
#3 Posted : 09 August 2019 11:59:55(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

We live in a Health and safety first society now. If there is a risk -it needs to be highlighted.

Despite these warnings people still ignore them, or perhaps dont see them and we still see accidents - ie people lost at sea, swept away in rivers, or just climbing mountains in innappropriate attire.

I think the warnings from your perspective are preaching to the converted, or at least in the know.

The warnings are there for people who dont know any better, and for weather forecasters to cover the arses.
Offline John p  
#4 Posted : 09 August 2019 12:11:07(UTC)
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In summer there's a lot more outdoor events with temporary structures (gazebos, marquees, bouncy castles etc) that cannot withstand your common autumn type gale.
Offline Downpour  
#5 Posted : 09 August 2019 15:06:49(UTC)
Downpour

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100% yes.

Great thread.

Hyperbole over the weather is the modern disease. TWO is bad enough but the malaise is also affecting the pros. I blame the internet!

Today was supposed to be thunderstorms and tomorrow gales.

I’m sitting in the pub garden drinking cold lager. Been mountain biking all day in temps in the mid 20s.

Forecasts are becoming utterly risk averse nonsense.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Offline Downpour  
#6 Posted : 09 August 2019 15:08:34(UTC)
Downpour

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Location: London E4

 


 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
We live in a Health and safety first society now. If there is a risk -it needs to be highlighted.

Despite these warnings people still ignore them, or perhaps dont see them and we still see accidents - ie people lost at sea, swept away in rivers, or just climbing mountains in innappropriate attire.

I think the warnings from your perspective are preaching to the converted, or at least in the know.

The warnings are there for people who dont know any better, and for weather forecasters to cover the arses.


Forecasting shouldn’t be about arse covering or being a drama queen. It should be about predicting the weather on balance of probability.

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Offline LeedsLad123  
#7 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:06:12(UTC)
LeedsLad123

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Location: Leeds

The warning for rain here did seem a bit excessive considering we only had 9mm this morning. We had a short lived shower about half an hour ago and now the sun is back out and it’s 23C.

Edited by user 09 August 2019 16:09:16(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Devonian  
#8 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:17:54(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
100% yes.

Great thread.

Hyperbole over the weather is the modern disease. TWO is bad enough but the malaise is also affecting the pros. I blame the internet!

Today was supposed to be thunderstorms and tomorrow gales.

I’m sitting in the pub garden drinking cold lager. Been mountain biking all day in temps in the mid 20s.

Forecasts are becoming utterly risk averse nonsense.


It's been very wet here (with thunder last night) and now the wind (for August) is howling. I don't think you are in either today's wind or rain warning area.

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way"
Nigel Farage, Daily Mirror, 16/5/2016
"I think the mistake the government made - led by Theresa May - from the start was to try and claim that a country that had voted 17 million to leave the EU, 16 million to stay, wanted a 100% Brexit"
Osborne, 22/12/18.
Offline Devonian  
#9 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:19:17(UTC)
Devonian

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Location: East Dartmoor

Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post


 


 


 


Forecasting shouldn’t be about arse covering or being a drama queen. It should be about predicting the weather on balance of probability.



And it is. Weather forecasters don't cancel events, they provided forecasts.

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way"
Nigel Farage, Daily Mirror, 16/5/2016
"I think the mistake the government made - led by Theresa May - from the start was to try and claim that a country that had voted 17 million to leave the EU, 16 million to stay, wanted a 100% Brexit"
Osborne, 22/12/18.
Offline Russwirral  
#10 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:24:15(UTC)
Russwirral

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,464
Location: Wirral

Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post
100% yes.

Great thread.

Hyperbole over the weather is the modern disease. TWO is bad enough but the malaise is also affecting the pros. I blame the internet!

Today was supposed to be thunderstorms and tomorrow gales.

I’m sitting in the pub garden drinking cold lager. Been mountain biking all day in temps in the mid 20s.

Forecasts are becoming utterly risk averse nonsense.


 


This is the classic though. The forecast didnt happen to me...therefor it was wrong, or overhyped.


 


Nope


 


Ive been in a few very dicey positions that were rightly called out in a warning and i chose to ignore them. I should have known better.


 


Warnings are there because something might happen... not will.


 


Therefor the warnings are useful. Ive seen people die on my road from falling trees from winds. Ive seen people get caught out by flash flooding... all avoidable if they had heeded advice. 


 


 


 


 

Online doctormog  
#11 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:30:42(UTC)
doctormog

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Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post


 


And it is. Weather forecasters don't cancel events, they provided forecasts.



Offline picturesareme  
#12 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:32:15(UTC)
picturesareme

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Location: pompey

Fridays weather warnings.... Gale force winds 30mm of rain followed by heavy showers potentially giving another 30mm

In reality its been warm with a decent amount of sunshine.. 25C.

The rain band brought 3mm and just the one brief shower this afternoon. Breezy this afternoon but not as much as yesterday.

I do expect the wind will pick up overnight.

Offline Devonian  
#13 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:38:33(UTC)
Devonian

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Originally Posted by: picturesareme Go to Quoted Post


Fridays weather warnings.... Gale force winds 30mm of rain followed by heavy showers potentially giving another 30mm

In reality its been warm with a decent amount of sunshine.. 25C.

The rain band brought 3mm and just the one brief shower this afternoon. Breezy this afternoon but not as much as yesterday.

I do expect the wind will pick up overnight.



It says some places could see 30mm. it does say 10-15mm widely. It then says many places will miss the showers.


Fwiw, we've had 48mm in the last 24 hrs. I suspect the strongest winds are yet to arrive.

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way"
Nigel Farage, Daily Mirror, 16/5/2016
"I think the mistake the government made - led by Theresa May - from the start was to try and claim that a country that had voted 17 million to leave the EU, 16 million to stay, wanted a 100% Brexit"
Osborne, 22/12/18.
Online doctormog  
#14 Posted : 09 August 2019 16:43:37(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 68,620

The wind warning (not gale warning) come into effect at 3pm (until midnight tomorrow).

“Unseasonably strong southwesterly winds are expected to cause some disruption. Gusts of 40-50 mph are expected inland and to around 60 mph around the coasts - particularly in association with heavy showers.”

Gust have reached over 40mph in numerous places but fewer have (yet) reached the higher values.
Offline richardabdn  
#15 Posted : 09 August 2019 17:22:06(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,473
Location: Aberdeen

It's beyond a joke. Practically every single day there is a weather warning issued here mainly for thunderstorms and there hasn't been any Nor has there been any rain heavy enough to cause disruption. Today is just vile but doesn't warrant a weather warning.


Saturday and Sunday also covered by warnings for thunderstorms. It's ridiculous. They should only be used when something exceptional and out of the ordinary is expected which is never the case in these tediously benign times.

2007 onwards: The Worst Summers since the 1690s?
2007: Dullest June on record, dullest summer since 1944; 170% of average rainfall
2008: Dullest August since 1963; 139% of average rainfall for the season
2009: 121% of average rainfall for the season
2010: Another notably dull spell of June weather; 103% of average rainfall, 87% of average sun for the season
2011: Very cool, dull and wet with a record breaking run of sub-21C days. 169% of average rainfall for the season.
2012: The worst summer since at least 1879. Dullest since 1912 with only 62% of average sun and 171% of average rainfall. Only 0.1C warmer than 1965, the coldest post-war summer
2013: The only decent summer.
2014: Another top 10 dull June and the wettest August since 1963.
2015: The wettest July since 1970. 148% of average rainfall for the season.
2016: 5th wettest June since 1856. 154% of average rainfall for the season and 87% of average sun.
2017: Wettest June on record.
2018: The weekend curse strikes again.
Offline Roger Parsons  
#16 Posted : 09 August 2019 17:41:46(UTC)
Roger Parsons

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Originally Posted by: richardabdn Go to Quoted Post


It's beyond a joke. Practically every single day there is a weather warning issued here mainly for thunderstorms and there hasn't been any Nor has there been any rain heavy enough to cause disruption. Today is just vile but doesn't warrant a weather warning.


Saturday and Sunday also covered by warnings for thunderstorms. It's ridiculous. They should only be used when something exceptional and out of the ordinary is expected which is never the case in these tediously benign times.



errrr...


http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=12


Speakers on.


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
No county (Lincolnshire) has better churches and worse houses. The poorer sort of people wash their clothes with hog's dung, and burn dried cow's dung for want of better fuel; whence comes the Lincolnshire proverb: "Where the hogs shite soap and the cows shite fire".
Curiosities of Great Britain (c.1780)
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#17 Posted : 09 August 2019 17:45:43(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Certainly didn't need one here today a couple of showers but mainly warm and sunny. I would agree there needs to be much less warnings otherwise they lose there impact.


 

Offline JACKO4EVER  
#18 Posted : 09 August 2019 17:49:37(UTC)
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Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border

I’ve lost count of the “don’t travel” winter warnings for my area that barely produce a frost never mind a flake of snow. I suppose it’s part of the snowflake society we now live in
Jason in The Vale of Belvoir
Near the Leics/ Notts Border
495 Feet Above Sea Level
Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer"
Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special"
December 2015- "Floodfest Horror"
2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"
The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery


Offline Hungry Tiger  
#19 Posted : 09 August 2019 17:50:46(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Posts: 24,718
Location: South Cambridgeshire

This is true - But all this stems from the bollocksed weather forecast in October 1987 in which the worst gale since 1703 was under forecasted as a breezy night.


Almost every single weather station in London and the South East had gusts of over 100mph and £2 billion in damage done.


This is now 32 years ago -- But remains a fundamental part of weather forecasting folklore.


 

Gavin S.

UserPostedImage

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.


Offline KevBrads1  
#20 Posted : 09 August 2019 18:01:12(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: warrenb Go to Quoted Post


Many events have been cancelled here in the SE due to the wind warning out for tomorrow. Huge rain warnings out for today and tomorrow, but at the end of the day this is just your common low pressure system.


.



The rain that fell mid afternoon was phenomenal, huge puddles etc. It justified a warning but with the nature of convective showery weather, some areas are going to miss out. 


You have to also remember that is almost the 40th anniversary of the Fastnet storm and there was the terrible summer low pressure storm of end of July 1956. 


 


Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
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