Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

30 Pages«<34567>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Polar Low  
#81 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:20:09(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

Last nights ecm total max out 94F updates in a couple of hours

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

 

 

Offline Polar Low  
#82 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:24:29(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

Offline Polar Low  
#83 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:30:58(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

Yep I see also added Temp 2 across the set

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php

 

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
GEM has some interesting ensembles this morning. Rather different to the flat line and consensus implies by GEFS.

Offline Polar Low  
#84 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:48:54(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

 ECM maxes similar to previous runs. After usual adjustments to ECM raw data, we may expect the following maximums this week:

Monday 30C

Tuesday 34C

Wednesday 35C

Thursday 38C

Friday 30C 

However, the highest temperatures are dependent on the pattern not shifting any further east. 

Offline Rob K  
#85 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:51:12(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,960
Location: Northeast Hampshire

It looks like the highest temperatures will be restricted to the far southeast. Gravesend would be in prime position but did I read somewhere that is no longer an official station?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline briggsy6  
#86 Posted : 21 July 2019 09:07:56(UTC)
briggsy6

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 688

Looking at the forecast this morning it's going to be a three day heatwave at best. 34c possible in usual places - probably Northolt and Heathrow Airport again like last time. All over by Friday.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline superteacher  
#87 Posted : 21 July 2019 09:11:52(UTC)
superteacher

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 206
Man
Location: Sible Hedingham (near Braintree), Essex

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

Looking at the forecast this morning it's going to be a three day heatwave at best. 34c possible in usual places - probably Northolt and Heathrow Airport again like last time. All over by Friday.

 

34C will be easily surpassed.

Offline briggsy6  
#88 Posted : 21 July 2019 10:03:39(UTC)
briggsy6

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 688

Time will tell.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline David M Porter  
#89 Posted : 21 July 2019 10:37:19(UTC)
David M Porter

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 17,200
Man
Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

From what I remember, the BBC were pretty much on the mark with their predictions of what the highest temperatures would be in the late June mini-heatwave, so we shall see what their thoughts are for this coming week.

What does seem fairly likely now from the output I can see is that the change to fresher weather will arrive by Friday, as is indicated by this morning's UKMO run and their updated text forecast quoted in the media thread.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline Shropshire  
#90 Posted : 21 July 2019 11:41:14(UTC)
Shropshire

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,544
Man
Location: Staffordshire

Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post

From what I remember, the BBC were pretty much on the mark with their predictions of what the highest temperatures would be in the late June mini-heatwave, so we shall see what their thoughts are for this coming week.

What does seem fairly likely now from the output I can see is that the change to fresher weather will arrive by Friday, as is indicated by this morning's UKMO run and their updated text forecast quoted in the media thread.

The GFS brings fresher weather to Central parts on Wednesday and for the West this is a non event.

 

'Money fills their pockets, but fear fills their tiny minds'
Online The Beast from the East  
#91 Posted : 21 July 2019 11:52:05(UTC)
The Beast from the East

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 28,745
Man
Location: Purley, Surrey

just hope its not a thundery breakdown as could do without another flood in the garage as per Friday night

the previous heatwave ended calmly with a dry cold front pushing through, there was no precip left on it by the time it got here

 

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Offline TimS  
#92 Posted : 21 July 2019 12:50:10(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,502
Location: Brockley

Will the 12z runs give us one last twist on this week’s heatwave? I think it’s probably the last chance for anything significant one way or the other before we get into the easily predictable range.

In the longer term I don’t see any runs bringing in proper high pressure, which is a bit concerning for August. Would be nice to see at least a few going settled.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Rob K  
#93 Posted : 21 July 2019 13:33:37(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,960
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Run 10 of the GEFS is pretty crazy. It keeps the heat going until the 28th: 33C max on the 28th and then 15C daytime max on the 30th!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline David M Porter  
#94 Posted : 21 July 2019 13:38:35(UTC)
David M Porter

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 17,200
Man
Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: Shropshire Go to Quoted Post

 

The GFS brings fresher weather to Central parts on Wednesday and for the West this is a non event.

 

The BBC week ahead forecast is predicting an area of thundery showers or storms moving north during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with another band of rain/showers/storms gradually moving east later on Thursday into Friday.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#95 Posted : 21 July 2019 16:21:24(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,175
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

12z GFS is extremely hot on Thursday.

I’ve looked at the HD chart and I think it’s showing 36-37C. But it’s not clear, can someone confirm

Mark

Stratford, London

Offline Bertwhistle  
#96 Posted : 21 July 2019 16:24:17(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,664
Location: Central Southern England

Encouraging to see at least 2 potential days of hot holiday for me at only <4 days out; chances increase as the window closes.I'm still very interested in what happens after the weekend, and how much increasing heights over Greenland affect the track & intensity of these lows developing; early indications from the GFS OP suggest maybe a ridge nosing in from the SW around Tuesday. Here's this Thursday:

Edited by user 21 July 2019 16:29:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#97 Posted : 21 July 2019 16:28:29(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,601
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post
12z GFS is extremely hot on Thursday.

I’ve looked at the HD chart and I think it’s showing 36-37C. But it’s not clear, can someone confirm

 

It looks like 38c in the london area to me but its not clear

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#98 Posted : 21 July 2019 16:36:36(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,601
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Arpege maxes for next week Monday 30c, Tuesday 34c, Wednesday 32c  , Thursday 36c. 

 

Also 43c in the Paris area on Thursday. truly extraordinary!

 

Edited by user 21 July 2019 16:37:47(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Bertwhistle  
#99 Posted : 21 July 2019 16:40:10(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,664
Location: Central Southern England

Some very warm -stifling- nights forecast around the Capital; not sure what the record UK night min is but 25C in London area at 5am looks - well- unsleepable.

Chart image

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#100 Posted : 21 July 2019 16:41:09(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,175
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

I think if we can break the July record it would be great.

The UK record is overdue now. 13 years it took for that to be broken. It’s been 16 years now...

Mark

Stratford, London

Users browsing this topic
Col, Guest (16), haghir22
30 Pages«<34567>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP