idj20
07 November 2019 17:18:17

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.



Just a break in the wet weather would do us just fine and the past couple of runs offers a glimmer of hope. After all it is only November and some of us in the UK probably have had double the November average rainfall and this is just the first week of the month! 


Folkestone Harbour. 
JACKO4EVER
07 November 2019 18:21:24

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 

 

Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 

whats that Marcus, tears over Arsenal blow your keyboard? 🤣

some hints in FI again of northern blocking, interesting output for sure 

Russwirral
07 November 2019 18:31:51
GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum


Shropshire
07 November 2019 18:45:00

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum

All too early for anything decent unfortunately.

 


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Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 18:49:58

Another dip and extension of the cold on the 850s

Here are the ensembles. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Gustys reverse psychology could be doing the trick 😉


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

ballamar
07 November 2019 18:53:28

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

All too early for anything decent unfortunately.

 

no it isn’t - if the pattern persists will go cold

Bertwhistle
07 November 2019 19:09:54

Check out the GFS 850 ensembles: warm Moscow, snowy Inverness.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Brian Gaze
07 November 2019 19:12:04

Yes, here's a static of the Moscow 12 plot:

(Latest here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Moscow_Russia


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Gusty
07 November 2019 21:00:40

For the first half of November this is a fairly notable run of sub 10c maxes for London ! Signs of something less cool later on hopefully. Again it's deep in FI and cannot be taken too seriously yet. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Brian Gaze
07 November 2019 21:13:50

GFS was upgraded today.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Saint Snow
07 November 2019 21:16:56

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

GFS was upgraded today.

 

The phrase "everything is relative" comes to mind.


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White Meadows
07 November 2019 22:50:02
Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.

Recent output continues to be interesting with tonight’s pub run repeating a trend for the jet diving very far south with possible north/ north easterly airflow over the UK next week & beyond 🥶

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 November 2019 23:05:16

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.

I think it's already arrived


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

Argyle77
08 November 2019 01:22:54

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

White Meadows
08 November 2019 06:37:56

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

i think it was 2016-17 which was expected to deliver the goods with blocking as we approached winter, coupled with a promising met office extended outlook. Still, the hair dryer got stuck in the on position and we ended up milder than average again.

2009 and 2010 were excellent winters here, the best in recent times. 

Shropshire
08 November 2019 06:43:57

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

Yep and everything is pointing to a zonal December. As you say 2010 didn't begin until the end of the month.

 


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Brian Gaze
08 November 2019 07:22:13

I'll start a new thread at 7:30am. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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