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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 17,460  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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The jet stream continues to be strong and over England or just to the S before swinging N and dissipating over N Europe, for several days to come. Consequently any blocking is well east and north, though HP appears briefly over Scandi from time to time. UK has lots of LPs moving through, though both GFS and ECM have a more 'traditional' deep LP off Scotland around the 16th, and BBC last night suggested a deep LP settling in the N Sea in a few days' time with unpleasant easterlies. Ensembles cold and damp, perhaps more than damp in the S, but with temps slowly recovering and back to near normal around the 16th and after Edited by user 06 November 2019 07:43:50(UTC)
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"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze" |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 60,684
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 8,932  Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze  I'm certainly not convinced anything particularly cold is heading our way anytime soon. It looks more like a 13/14 winter than a 09/10 one. Having said that we live in hope . And perhaps the Brexit winter will be a famously cold and snowy one. SHOW TWEETS |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 29,037 Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman I'm certainly not convinced anything particularly cold is heading our way anytime soon. It looks more like a 13/14 winter than a 09/10 one. Having said that we live in hope . And perhaps the Brexit winter will be a famously cold and snowy one. Oh God, don't say that as 13/14 was an absolutely horrendous winter in every sense of the word. But I recall that November actually having been relatively dry and settled after St Jude's storm in late October and before all Hell were let loose by third week of December. On the other hand, November 2010 was very wet and changeable and we can all remember what followed next.  But indeed, the latest runs showing the Atlantic getting to have the upper hand by second half of November doesn't come as a surprise to me, it also ties in with the Met Office and BBC long term guessimate predictions.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,197
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Just gone through the 20 runs and again there are some mad charts in there - granted no stella runs but an awful lot of blocking |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC) Posts: 992 Location: West Wiltshire
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Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2019(UTC)
Posts: 341
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The change today in the models compared with the more amplified options we have seen the last few days and especially the difference between the 0z ecm and the 12z from yesterday really brings home to me the folly of 1) looking beyond a week at most and 2) any in depth discussion on what the models are showing beyond this time frame other than a passing remark perhaps. The ecm 0z run today could not look more different than yesterdays 12z that is why I hardly ever comment these days in the model output thread unless of course winter nivarna was being modeled within t120 which it rarely is. Several times already this autumn we have seen the models try and amplify the pattern with northern blocking etc only for it to implode within t168. Model watching is fun but can be a complete waste of time as well especially when like netweather every run is analysed to death and outdated within a day or two.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 26,075
Location: Manchester
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Just looked at my Weather Pro weather app (uses data from ECM/EPS if I recall). No sign of double figures in Manchester for the foreseeable future (right through to 13th November). I would guess that is relatively unusual for the time of year.
Cold and unsettled. |
Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,197
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417 consecutive months of above average temperatures globally Incredible Info from C Fawkes October was actually colder than average for the UK Edited by user 06 November 2019 15:00:38(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 11,496
Location: Devon
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Originally Posted by: Gooner Just gone through the 20 runs and again there are some mad charts in there - granted no stella runs but an awful lot of blocking Again strength of zonal winds @10hpa will be weakening after strengthening towards middle and end of November: NAO around neutral but AO going very negative: SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES Edited by user 06 November 2019 19:30:35(UTC)
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Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL) --------------------------------------- Sean Moon Magical Moon www.magical-moon.com
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74,689
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I’m not sure talk of winter during the first week of November is particularly useful. Looking at output I’m not sure what to expect next week nevermind in three to four weeks! Lots of blocking evident across a variety of output but little in the way if noteworthy conditions or consistency. I will be a bit more confident about the output for the start of the winter after the next 90 or so GFS op runs. The immediate future (next few days) looks cool, after that average-ish temperature wise but more unsettled. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,971 Location: Forest Gate London
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+4. Very Slow 12z GFS today. Climate Change is happening mr Trump. Nice to see UKMO and ICON give Central and East to NE USA SW to NE moving Jet STm PV Lows. Blocking Far East and SE USA, West N Atlantic with High P. Newfoundland PV Low head SE on Saturday and Sunday to Northwest Atlantic then push it SE wards through Central N Atlantic and to West Europe and the UK. GFS- America. Nice to see UKMO and ICON models High Pressure over Greenland and Iceland plus Norwegian Sea and Arctic High = Negative AO and NAO. What will this evenings ECMWF show us UK people- wet and windy November weather with below average temperatures or near average. I am able handle GFS and ECMWF and others flip flopping each 24 hours. |
We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather. Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness. Laiq B. Home: East London Location around 61m ASL.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,971 Location: Forest Gate London
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  .
GFS 12z Model Output looks very good for the North Atlantic UK and Europe - domination of Cool and Chilly weather some cold conditions- average and below average temperatures and plenty of Low Pressure tracking from the NW - SE wards hmm. Happy with ICON, UKMO and GFS. High Pressure to our North and NW and NE, and also in Central to East USA - more further SE there you go... Western N Atlantic High Pressure- NE USA PV Low yes, but through North USA areas that is good. Cold Zonality in November is being shown for UK and West Europe. Greenland and Iceland Cold high pressure and same over the Norwegian Sea and the Arctic Sea to our North and NE.   .
This evening's ECMWF Output is hopefully going to support this forecast for Saturday and Next week, and also this week Thursday and Friday UK wet and windy chilly weather. Cold and chilly on Saturday- Sunday as well. |
We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather. Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness. Laiq B. Home: East London Location around 61m ASL.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 2,270
Location: Essex
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No point looking at specifics but GFS looks against the norm with heights inflating all around, would suggest something is brewing. Will change next run but interesting to see
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 36,619 Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however: SHOW TWEETS |
New world order coming. |
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
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Originally Posted by: ballamar No point looking at specifics but GFS looks against the norm with heights inflating all around, would suggest something is brewing. Will change next run but interesting to see yes some subtle hints, decent northern blocking on some runs, I for one think the overall background patterns fascinating atm. With decent projections for AO and NAO, this slow burning situation could explode into winter proper come the close of the month.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74,689
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER yes some subtle hints, decent northern blocking on some runs, I for one think the overall background patterns fascinating atm. With decent projections for AO and NAO, this slow burning situation could explode into winter proper come the close of the month. Indeed, or come to nothing at all! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,276 Location: Folkestone
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A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :) 
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 60,684
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Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however: He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW. SHOW TWEETS |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74,689
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Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather.... |
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