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Offline Russwirral  
#881 Posted : 03 November 2019 11:11:11(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

You dont get many runs looking like that in November - let alone on the 3rd day of it.

Offline doctormog  
#882 Posted : 03 November 2019 11:13:25(UTC)
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It looks interesting for sure and if it were to become a gradual transition into winter it would be very interesting. At this stage it raises half an eyebrow out of curiosity. The persistence of blocking across various areas to the north is beginning to get my attention but it could as we all know disappear without anything notable coming to fruition.
Offline tallyho_83  
#883 Posted : 03 November 2019 11:32:07(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
It looks interesting for sure and if it were to become a gradual transition into winter it would be very interesting. At this stage it raises half an eyebrow out of curiosity. The persistence of blocking across various areas to the north is beginning to get my attention but it could as we all know disappear without anything notable coming to fruition.

Yes it is interesting to get the blocking in these places so early on!? Hope this can be a continuing trend!?

Both GFS OP and Control has us in a northerly on 14th Nov - but this has to be an outliar!? Many places not getting above freezing all day!? Typical as i shall be heading off to Budapest for birthday - where at the mom it looks balmy with more chance of getting a white birthday here ha!?

All JFF as it's one model and one run but something to keep an eye on?

 

Control: the Uppers with -10 @ 850hpa knocking on northern Scotland:

 

GFS OP

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 03 November 2019 11:34:42(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline tallyho_83  
#884 Posted : 03 November 2019 12:06:23(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

A cold outliar as expected looking at the ensembles - but many others are below norm anyway:

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline Brian Gaze  
#885 Posted : 03 November 2019 12:19:57(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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GFS 6z op and control both notably cold at times.

 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline ballamar  
#886 Posted : 03 November 2019 17:56:05(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

Some impressive blocking on the 12z any blobs of warming seem to quickly inflate the high pressure at the moment. 2010 looks a possibility
Offline Sevendust  
#887 Posted : 03 November 2019 19:51:07(UTC)
Sevendust

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Location: Alton, Hampshire

ECM looks a shocker with low pressures further south than normal and a lot of rain

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

Offline DEW  
#888 Posted : 04 November 2019 07:04:26(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

An unrelenting procession of depressions for some time to come, with a notably deeper one around the 11th(ECM) or 12th(GFS). After that these two models diverge, GFS continuing the unsettled theme, but ECM developing a large HP cell mid-Atlantic linking with a less well defined HP over Scandi. The latter is supported by the BBC look ahead which suggested its earlier (by a few days) development.

Varous posters have been excited about blocking but I don't buy it. Certainly HP to the north persists, but it seems to me 'faute de mieux'. it's just that all the depressions are directed elsewhere, and there's no well-defined cell until 13th (ECM, mid-Atlantic) or beyond the Urals (GFS).

Ensembles showing fair agreement with each other, generally cold and wet at first, slowly relenting in about 10 days' time, the far NW getting off more lightly than it normally does at the start of the period.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
JACKO4EVER  
#889 Posted : 04 November 2019 09:51:26(UTC)
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Morning all, the current output looks unrelentingly grim with cool temperatures and lots of rainfall.
Offline Maunder Minimum  
#890 Posted : 04 November 2019 11:49:36(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

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Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Some impressive blocking on the 12z any blobs of warming seem to quickly inflate the high pressure at the moment. 2010 looks a possibility

Also, there are early indications that the Strat Vortex is going to be warmed and diminished in the coming weeks, which can only enhance the possibilities of northern blocking. From what I gather, this is not a SSW, but a virtuous feedback from the Trop into the Strat caused by anomalous northern blocking.

The weather is a complex beast - usually we get a zonal reinforcing mechanism which knocks our hopes of a decent winter into a cocked hat, but there must be occasions when the reinforcing is the other way, otherwise how could we ever get our infrequent classic winters?

 

New world order coming.
Offline Perthite1  
#891 Posted : 04 November 2019 14:00:20(UTC)
Perthite1

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Australia
Location: Perth

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum Go to Quoted Post

 

Also, there are early indications that the Strat Vortex is going to be warmed and diminished in the coming weeks, which can only enhance the possibilities of northern blocking. From what I gather, this is not a SSW, but a virtuous feedback from the Trop into the Strat caused by anomalous northern blocking.

The weather is a complex beast - usually we get a zonal reinforcing mechanism which knocks our hopes of a decent winter into a cocked hat, but there must be occasions when the reinforcing is the other way, otherwise how could we ever get our infrequent classic winters?

 

The Southern Hemisphere has just seen one of its strongest sudden stratospheric warmings on record. It started in Late August and propagated down into the Troposphere over the past few weeks. Not sure what if any impacts there will be in the Northern hemisphere, but it's causing some real extremes of cool and heat here in Perth this Spring. 

Offline David M Porter  
#892 Posted : 04 November 2019 14:43:30(UTC)
David M Porter

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Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum Go to Quoted Post

 

Also, there are early indications that the Strat Vortex is going to be warmed and diminished in the coming weeks, which can only enhance the possibilities of northern blocking. From what I gather, this is not a SSW, but a virtuous feedback from the Trop into the Strat caused by anomalous northern blocking.

The weather is a complex beast - usually we get a zonal reinforcing mechanism which knocks our hopes of a decent winter into a cocked hat, but there must be occasions when the reinforcing is the other way, otherwise how could we ever get our infrequent classic winters?

 

Maybe it was the kind of feedback from the trop into the strat as a result of northern blocking that led to the severe cold spells seen in both winter 2009/10 and December 2010, Maunder. I could be wrong, but I don't think either was a direct result of a SSW event.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#893 Posted : 04 November 2019 17:28:09(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Location: Forest Gate London

.

Well, I think any chance of colder weather is going to affect first in Scotland and N. Ireland later this Week, and again by Monday to Tuesday after this coming Week's end.

Rain and Low Pressure, looks set to continue for the next two weeks.

GFS, UKMO and ICON models look at 12z today looks like this.

Less chilly in Central and South UK.

So maybe as we get to about November the 20th, there could be a chance of a Scandinavian high that could maybe not sure though as I can see on GFS operational 12z run today.

Hmm.

Regular reviews of the forecast is important.

But it is we should continue to look to the West and Northwest, for our weather for the next 2 weeks..

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline richardabdn  
#894 Posted : 04 November 2019 18:06:55(UTC)
richardabdn

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Location: Aberdeen

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
Morning all, the current output looks unrelentingly grim with cool temperatures and lots of rainfall.

It’s just the worst synoptics imaginable bringing day after day of unmitgated horror.

Could end up even worse than December 2002 – the most revolting month of my lifetime. Then we had a three day frosty spell just after mid-month that brought nearly all of the month’s pitiful sunshine total. Other than that there were only two dry days and five days that recorded any sunshine. This month is heading in exactly the same direction but without any sign of even a brief high pressure interlude.

I have seriously never seen such dire model output in all the years I’ve been viewing it

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

Summer 2020 - so bad it's worse than a dull and wet November and colder than a mild February

13th -27th August 2020 Sunshine: 30.9 hours

13th - 27th November 2019 Sunshine: 32.2 hours

25th - 31st August 2020 Mean Max: 14.1C

21st -27th February 2019 Mean Max: 14.3C

Online Gooner  
#895 Posted : 04 November 2019 18:24:24(UTC)
Gooner

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Man

After login issues its good to be back on ( Thanks Brian )

I am slightly optimistic looking at the charts , some blocking is certainly on offer , but far too early to 'that' excited 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline ballamar  
#896 Posted : 04 November 2019 18:59:11(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

ECM looks like a classic pre cold spell set-up where it will be milder before the cold penetrates to Europe. High will become difficult to shift with the early snow and cold over Scandinavia. Fun this early in the silly season
Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#897 Posted : 04 November 2019 19:21:52(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Location: Forest Gate London

.

There appears to be some potential interesting weather for the 10 days of mid-November, we have Thursday being affected by Low Pressure, that departs on Friday 8th Nov., then on Saturday we have Shortwave spread across UK- bringing a spell of rain then cool with heavy blustery showers.

By Sunday the 10th and Monday the 11th November, the UK looks like being affected by further Deep Low pressure directed SE from the NW Atlantic with Blocking over Iceland and Greenland and maybe also over Norway and North Sea as well.

It looks like bringing heavy rain then heavy blustery showers and mild air, to the UK.

Then at around that timeframe the Models e.g., ICON and ECMWF have two active PV Low's merging over NE USA and Newfoundland that tell me that if we get blocking in Western North Atlantic and blocking in Greenland and North Atlantic to our NW and North there could be a interesting trend and pattern developing possibly from that time point forwards hmm.

Will the GFS learn from ICON, UKMO and ECMWF- the UKMO looks very windy and wet on Thursday this week as well.

The GFS downgrades the Low Pressure over the UK on Saturday and Sunday November 9th and 10th.

But ICON and ECMWF show that Deep Low over the UK on Sunday to Tuesday Nov. 10-13th.

Que sera whatever will be will be but never for us to see eh.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#898 Posted : 04 November 2019 19:29:27(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Posts: 6,339
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

After login issues its good to be back on ( Thanks Brian )

I am slightly optimistic looking at the charts , some blocking is certainly on offer , but far too early to 'that' excited 

True. Nice to hear from you however.

Gavin's thoughts talks about cooler than average Mid Atlantic, warm Tropical Atlantic. Might help to account for cyclonic activity dipping south a bit, with reluctant HP belts developing, without great tenacity, over the fifties and higher. GFS seems to give sinking lows a helping hand quite a lot over the past few days.

 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline moomin75  
#899 Posted : 04 November 2019 19:34:12(UTC)
moomin75

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Posts: 5,354

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

After login issues its good to be back on ( Thanks Brian )

I am slightly optimistic looking at the charts , some blocking is certainly on offer , but far too early to 'that' excited 

Welcome back Marcus. The charts have stirred me from summer hibernation too and they look a little bit interesting. If we can get some repeating patterns throughout the next few months there could be something of interest for all us winter lovers. Here's hoping to another exciting season of model watching for all of us.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline DEW  
#900 Posted : 05 November 2019 06:54:27(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

LP continues to dominate the weather over the UK for the foreseeable - nothing particularly deep or active, just one centre after another drifting through, and the centres further south than you would expect for this time of year, so some cool NE-lies off the N Sea. GFS has a brief window of a ridge from Atlantic to Scandi 16th/17th but it doesn't last. ECM doesn't go that far, but does develop strong high pressure cells over both these locations without at that stage (14th) linking them up.

BTW, ECM has a particularly nasty storm off New England at that stage, but GFS doesn't buy it.

GEFS ensembles match the above with temps consistently about 3C below normal out to the 16th, then back to average but a wide scatter developing. Rain randomly everywhere, just a hint that the far N will be drier than average though not exempt from all rain - backed up by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

 

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
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