November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

Edited by user 01 November 2019 16:11:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Gusty

November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

 

Do I sense a small amount of reverse psychology in this post.

In all seriousness though, I remember how fed up you were with the 2018/19 offerings.

I remember the winter of '08-09 as I was halfway through a 365 photography mission and there were a lot of lovely hazy light in the Winter/early Spring season. On the other hand, Nov 2010 was very wet and unsettled and we can all remember what happened next. But of course, no two years are ever exactly alike with our mid-latitude climate.

Back on topic, the 12z GFS as well as the ECM are too painful to look at for too long, even if most of it are in the form of "cold" cyclonic activity. Much rather have a cold high being close to us.  

Edited by user 01 November 2019 18:58:28(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.

 

GFS 6z closer to 60mph:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust

 

HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906

 

 

If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!

Both GFS and ECM are coming up with a similar idea of HP ridging in from both SW and NE thus putting the UK under a slack no-man's land set up by around the 11th Nov. Until then we still have to put up with LP rattling in from the Atlantic one after the other, although the saving grace is they appear to be as decaying features so the outlook for next week may be classed as "changeable" rather than "unsettled". 

Just wanted to share this from weather is cool - the forecast for strength of zonal winds @ 10hpa:

Seems interesting!? Could all change of course but for now at least - all models showing a weakened zonal flow into December and some even going into reverse!?

If only....?

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 03 November 2019 02:16:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

GFS has a different take on a blocking high this morning, sbecoming prminent over Scandi from the 7th but only for a week, and then retreating into Russia where it eventually reaches 1050mb. Both temp and precip below normal over Scandi for the coming week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 though the Baltic could get a lot of snow later on.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, the blocking directs a series of not very deep depressions across the UK from NW to SE (though with the caveat that yesterday's storm was forecast not very deep at one stage) and eventually (from 13th) a bit deeper but stalling them off the W of Ireland.

ECM has a similar procession of depressions but without the benefit of a Scandi high until ca 12th when it emerges with a stong ridge to a mid-Atlantic high. ECM and GFS - both today's 0z - are dramatically different for the 13th

GEFS continues generally unsettled and on the cold side, though several runs are back to average temps or above later on.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:

I'll take that!

It wouldn't be the first time that I've seen snow here in  November, in fact it's snowed here in each of the last 5 Novembers however I'd be very surprised to get anything like that amount if any snow at all.

The tops of the Malverns might well see a flake or two.

One thing that I noticed on this morning's GEFS is that there is less scatter than usual among the members for the whole forecast period covered (and a great deal less than on some GEFS predictions).