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Offline Surrey John  
#841 Posted : 31 October 2019 06:48:07(UTC)
Surrey John

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Location: Kingston upon Thames

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post
Looking at the 12z and then these

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I do get the feeling we could see a bit of a switch at short notice. The Ensembles have that ‘look’. Equally, they have certainly trended colder this week compared to Monday

 

Those ensembles are very tight for next 7 days

Then more of a spread, but suggesting second week of November is going to be similar, with a few dawns where temperatures will see air frosts

 

 

Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL

Offline DEW  
#842 Posted : 31 October 2019 07:31:19(UTC)
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LP for the coming week with centres mostly sited in England; perhaps a brief dry window midweek. After that, the ridging from a Scandi high becomes established (as previously noted) and slack LP over France. Quite a lot of NE winds.

No very great totals for rainfall in GFS, but generally wet this coming week, and drier next week (but not as much rain in the S as I'd expect from pressure charts) Temps going down to somewhat below average again for the coming week, and staying there for the majority of runs the week after though there's a lot of scatter developing by then - confidence low.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline AJ*  
#843 Posted : 31 October 2019 08:44:50(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Have faith Ian!  There are a few who ignore the political bollocks.  I read this thread whenever there’s a new post and I read every one of DEW’s morning updates but I’m not conversant in model lingo, so I can’t contribute and I think there are a lot of others like me.  The winter migrants will start to post over the next few weeks though, so it’ll get busier in here!   

Me too.  (It would be useful if this forum had the functionality to just upvote or recommend posts, but I realise that we have to use the software that is available and provided.)

 

The GEFS output for London is still showing wet weather until the 10th Nov, but at least there is a break for a day shown on the 6th.  Still, I shouldn't complain, as I know that it is good for the garden and our water supplies.  (And we do need it here.)

 

 

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Offline ballamar  
#844 Posted : 31 October 2019 11:03:38(UTC)
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Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location
Offline Russwirral  
#845 Posted : 31 October 2019 11:16:23(UTC)
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As others have said - the last few runs of GFS looks like the Atlantic tries to get going (if not already) but reverts back to a blocked outlook, with an active atlantic being forced south to the med.

This is very encouraging, and something ive not seen for years - such resilience for blocking to rise from the ashes over and over.

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#846 Posted : 31 October 2019 15:08:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location

Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play.

Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum).

New world order coming.
Online Brian Gaze  
#847 Posted : 31 October 2019 15:09:15(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online picturesareme  
#848 Posted : 31 October 2019 16:15:39(UTC)
picturesareme

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Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum Go to Quoted Post

 

Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play.

Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum).

Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#849 Posted : 31 October 2019 19:26:49(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.

Particularly snow, but not only snow. Any form of extreme and unusual weather for these islands, which includes (not exclusively) snow, more snow, heavy snow, blizzards and also ice days, heavy frosts, freezing fog, oh and did I mention snow?

Then there are strong gales, heatwaves, torrential rain, floods, hail, tornadoes (not many of them) and err snow (did I mention that?).

P.S. ECM 12Z looks interesting if you want to see some early signs of winter.

Edited by user 31 October 2019 19:31:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

New world order coming.
Offline ballamar  
#850 Posted : 01 November 2019 07:16:56(UTC)
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Hints of high pressure building over Scandi again nothing too cold but nice to see the patterns there
Offline DEW  
#851 Posted : 01 November 2019 07:25:07(UTC)
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Tomorrow/Saturday's depression now forecast to be deeper and more violent (not too strong a word given the wind warnings) than it was a week ago.

Otherwise no surprises - all the developments have been telegraphed for some time. LP over the UK for next week with a brief interlude on Wed, then drying up and HP for next week, moving in for the next week from the SW eventually linking up with Scandinavia. The LP on its southern edge now looks further off than yesterday, over the Med rather than over France, so a good chance of a dry second week for all even if the GEFS op run has occasional rainfall spikes (most GEFS runs don't)

GEFS continues cold for the foreseeable and with less scatter than yesterday; Inverness has an impressive array of snow row figures. Jet stream forecast consistent with all this, running south of the UK for the coming week, then breaking up into meanders.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline AJ*  
#852 Posted : 01 November 2019 08:17:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: picturesareme Go to Quoted Post

 Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂

I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Offline Maunder Minimum  
#853 Posted : 01 November 2019 08:28:10(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: AJ* Go to Quoted Post

 

I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).

This was one of them:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/sulfur-spewing-russian-volcano-turning-sunsets-purple

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

New world order coming.
Offline TomC  
#854 Posted : 01 November 2019 09:05:12(UTC)
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I doubt this put enough sulphate aerosol in the stratosphere to cause significant cooling and hence a stronger stratospheric vortex. This usually needs strong tropical eruptions
Offline idj20  
#855 Posted : 01 November 2019 11:35:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: AJ* Go to Quoted Post

 

I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).



Indeed, noticed how the EURO4 is being quite bullish about wind strength for tomorrow while GFS is being more reserved, usually it's the other way around with the models when it comes to predicting mean winds in the close range forecast. A true test for the models with Oct '87 still fresh to mind but hopefully it won't be a repeat of that.

And the recent volcanic eruptions are just mere bottom burps compared to Mount St Helens in 1981.

Edited by user 01 November 2019 14:16:50(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Online Brian Gaze  
#856 Posted : 01 November 2019 11:43:46(UTC)
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ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.

 

GFS 6z closer to 60mph:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust

 

HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906

 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Northern Sky  
#857 Posted : 01 November 2019 12:22:00(UTC)
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Week two looks chilly on the GFS06z. Maybe signs towards the end that we start to see a coupling between the strat and trop vortex?

Wouldn't be a surprise of course at this time of year so I'll take any cold/cool weather on offer before then.

Offline DPower  
#858 Posted : 01 November 2019 13:02:01(UTC)
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https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png

You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#859 Posted : 01 November 2019 13:39:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DPower Go to Quoted Post

https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png

You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.

Unfortunately, GFS is showing the Strat/Trop disconnect disappearing by mid-month with a strong PV getting organised (in line with the LRFs).

It would be nice to go back to some of the classic winters and see what was happening to the curse of the cursed PV back then - 1981-82 would be a good case study.

 

Edited by user 01 November 2019 14:01:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

New world order coming.
Online Brian Gaze  
#860 Posted : 01 November 2019 13:52:49(UTC)
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On the other hand a cold and cyclonic November is often considered as a tick next to the cold winter box. Of course we don't know how November will play out and Mr PSW could come back in the blink of an eyelid.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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