Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013

Looking at the 12z and then these

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I do get the feeling we could see a bit of a switch at short notice. The Ensembles have that ‘look’. Equally, they have certainly trended colder this week compared to Monday

Those ensembles are very tight for next 7 days

Then more of a spread, but suggesting second week of November is going to be similar, with a few dawns where temperatures will see air frosts

Originally Posted by: Caz

Have faith Ian!  There are a few who ignore the political bollocks.  I read this thread whenever there’s a new post and I read every one of DEW’s morning updates but I’m not conversant in model lingo, so I can’t contribute and I think there are a lot of others like me.  The winter migrants will start to post over the next few weeks though, so it’ll get busier in here!   

Me too.  (It would be useful if this forum had the functionality to just upvote or recommend posts, but I realise that we have to use the software that is available and provided.)

The GEFS output for London is still showing wet weather until the 10th Nov, but at least there is a break for a day shown on the 6th.  Still, I shouldn't complain, as I know that it is good for the garden and our water supplies.  (And we do need it here.)

This is very encouraging, and something ive not seen for years - such resilience for blocking to rise from the ashes over and over.

Originally Posted by: idj20

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

 

I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.

Particularly snow, but not only snow. Any form of extreme and unusual weather for these islands, which includes (not exclusively) snow, more snow, heavy snow, blizzards and also ice days, heavy frosts, freezing fog, oh and did I mention snow?

Then there are strong gales, heatwaves, torrential rain, floods, hail, tornadoes (not many of them) and err snow (did I mention that?).

P.S. ECM 12Z looks interesting if you want to see some early signs of winter.

Edited by user 31 October 2019 19:31:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Tomorrow/Saturday's depression now forecast to be deeper and more violent (not too strong a word given the wind warnings) than it was a week ago.

Otherwise no surprises - all the developments have been telegraphed for some time. LP over the UK for next week with a brief interlude on Wed, then drying up and HP for next week, moving in for the next week from the SW eventually linking up with Scandinavia. The LP on its southern edge now looks further off than yesterday, over the Med rather than over France, so a good chance of a dry second week for all even if the GEFS op run has occasional rainfall spikes (most GEFS runs don't)

GEFS continues cold for the foreseeable and with less scatter than yesterday; Inverness has an impressive array of snow row figures. Jet stream forecast consistent with all this, running south of the UK for the coming week, then breaking up into meanders.

Originally Posted by: AJ*

 

I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).

This was one of them:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/sulfur-spewing-russian-volcano-turning-sunsets-purple

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Originally Posted by: AJ*

 

I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).

Edited by user 01 November 2019 14:16:50(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Week two looks chilly on the GFS06z. Maybe signs towards the end that we start to see a coupling between the strat and trop vortex?

Wouldn't be a surprise of course at this time of year so I'll take any cold/cool weather on offer before then.

Originally Posted by: DPower

https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png

You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.

Unfortunately, GFS is showing the Strat/Trop disconnect disappearing by mid-month with a strong PV getting organised (in line with the LRFs).

It would be nice to go back to some of the classic winters and see what was happening to the curse of the cursed PV back then - 1981-82 would be a good case study.

Edited by user 01 November 2019 14:01:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified