Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

49 Pages«<3940414243>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#801 Posted : 26 October 2019 13:03:12(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,965
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

The 00z UKMO has us in High Pressure much more - Sunday to Thursday next week from this Sunday W/E.

GFS and ECMWF- are struggling to bring the Low Pressure breakdown - by either Thursday or much more likely by Friday next Week - they expect Wind and rain, areas of dry and bright breaks with Low Pressure wind and rain that could cover the UK N NW Europe and the North Atlantic for at least 5 days.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#802 Posted : 26 October 2019 13:42:37(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,328
Location: Central Southern England

06z GFS picks up a persistent pattern from 1-11Nov of a tendency for LP to our S and HP over the NE.

The way it's modelled, looks as if the pattern is hard to break. Could be interesting.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline ballamar  
#803 Posted : 26 October 2019 20:31:27(UTC)
ballamar

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,409
Location: Essex

Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical
Offline DEW  
#804 Posted : 27 October 2019 07:05:55(UTC)
DEW

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,180
Man
Location: Chichester 12m. asl

This morning's GFS ahows the HP for this week not standing up to a push from the Atlantic, one depression moving across around 1 Nov, then a really disturbed (cool and wet) week from the 4th. HP over Scandi not really evident until then end of the run so reserve judgement on that. GEFS ens agree with this and to an unusual extent with each other, though not as cold as synoptics suggest.

GFS puts the cold and wet firmly across S Britain, ECM (from yesterday, and at the end of its run) further north.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Online doctormog  
#805 Posted : 27 October 2019 08:24:57(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 71,073

An interesting day 10 chart on this morning’s ECM 00z run https://www.wetterzentra...maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png
Offline briggsy6  
#806 Posted : 27 October 2019 08:43:56(UTC)
briggsy6

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 815

Channel low maybe?

Location: Uxbridge
Offline The Beast from the East  
#807 Posted : 27 October 2019 08:54:16(UTC)
The Beast from the East

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 36,474
Man
Location: Purley, Surrey

Horrendous. I thought we were passed the wettest period. Parallels with the 2013/4 winter

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Offline AJ*  
#808 Posted : 27 October 2019 09:37:36(UTC)
AJ*

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,306
Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical

Hear hear! It's roller-coaster time, chaps.

 

And I'd like to express my thanks to DEW for keeping this thread ticking over with intelligent and concise summaries of the outlook for the past few weeks. My model watching is limited to the MetO Fax Charts and a glance at the GEFS, but it's reassuring that my tentative ideas about what is being shown are backed up by someone more knowledgeable than myself.

The GEFS appears to be in agreement up to the 2nd Nov, after which the prospects are much less clear.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Online Brian Gaze  
#809 Posted : 27 October 2019 10:16:16(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,356

ECM t+ 10 days showing the potential for something wintry to develop. Could easily be very wet too. GFS / GEFS generally looks pretty unsettled to me with further flooding likely. A few of the runs appear to have the Atlantic going into maximum overdrive later on, but at this stage there is a good deal of interest.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#810 Posted : 27 October 2019 10:35:54(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC)
Posts: 35,848
Man
Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

Could this be coming into play this winter (as it appeared to in 2010-11)?

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 27 Oct 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2019 total: 223 days (74%)

 

New world order coming.
Offline Joe Bloggs  
#811 Posted : 27 October 2019 10:48:22(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,902
Location: Manchester

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
An interesting day 10 chart on this morning’s ECM 00z run https://www.wetterzentra...maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. 

“Interesting.”

 

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Offline JACKO4EVER  
#812 Posted : 27 October 2019 15:21:00(UTC)
JACKO4EVER

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/11/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,344
Man
Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. 

“Interesting.”

 

dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring.

I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. 

Jason in The Vale of Belvoir

Near the Leics/ Notts Border

495 Feet Above Sea Level

Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer"

Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special"

December 2015- "Floodfest Horror"

2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"

The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery

Online Brian Gaze  
#813 Posted : 27 October 2019 16:09:45(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,356

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post

 I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. 

Yes I think that is the weather headline during the second half of the week.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline Joe Bloggs  
#814 Posted : 27 October 2019 16:15:21(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,902
Location: Manchester

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post

 

dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring.

I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. 

Yes blocky charts do tend to appear more frequently at this time of year.

I agree the main concern currently is the amount of rain that looks likely to fall. 

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#815 Posted : 27 October 2019 16:17:09(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 4,055
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Offline Phil G  
#816 Posted : 27 October 2019 19:47:03(UTC)
Phil G

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,574
Location: Canvey Island, Essex

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post
Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door.

Same here personally this time of year signals the start of when I take a little more notice of the charts.

Canvey Island, Essex
Offline DEW  
#817 Posted : 28 October 2019 06:10:54(UTC)
DEW

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,180
Man
Location: Chichester 12m. asl

After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th.

The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline ballamar  
#818 Posted : 28 October 2019 07:00:17(UTC)
ballamar

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,409
Location: Essex

ECM interesting run, 10 days time could be a little wintry for some
Offline JACKO4EVER  
#819 Posted : 28 October 2019 19:05:42(UTC)
JACKO4EVER

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/11/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,344
Man
Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border

I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO
Jason in The Vale of Belvoir

Near the Leics/ Notts Border

495 Feet Above Sea Level

Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer"

Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special"

December 2015- "Floodfest Horror"

2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"

The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery

Offline idj20  
#820 Posted : 28 October 2019 19:11:17(UTC)
idj20

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 27,722
Man
Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO


1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.

Users browsing this topic
49 Pages«<3940414243>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP