From the beginning of November there appears to be a lot of cold weather moving in to Eastern and Northern Europe, hardly surprising for the start of November but was seriously lacking last year.

This weekend has a well-forecasted pulse of warm air from the south tangling with cold air over Scotland - latest GEFS suggest the heaviest rain will be N Wales & NW England rather than BBC suggesting S Wales/Midlands last night. Some wet snow over Pennines?

Once that's out of the way, HP for most of next week with the possibility of LP encroaching from the west. GEFS op and control runs say generally dry and on the cold side, though it's possible to cherry-pick exceptions. Presumably cold air following this weekend's weather gets established. Inverness has an impressive collection of snow row figures, though very little actual precipitation - just flurries?

GFS has abandoned its end-of-run northerly blast which was showing yesterday and replaced it with a less dramatic one a few days earlier. I'll believe that when I see it in actuality.

I know automatic IMBY weather forecasts are a bit dubious, but I'd like to bank this one for Penrith that predicts an accumulation of 40cm of snow :-)

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

The Met office charts have fronts all over the place,

especially the T+24   (0.00 hrs 25th)

Following the sequence through the 36 hour and 48 hour suggests Central and Northern England is going to be very wet, it will also be windy

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

there are also yellow warnings for rain at the weekend

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-10-26

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think.  

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

 

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

Yes I think it was. 

GFS and associated GEFS move to a northerly scenario next week, HP to the west of and often close to the UK, temps below average as you might expect and mainly dry, though some GEFS runs have rainfall from (probably) the HP regressing a bit and allowing LP to come down the North Sea.

But ...

BBC last night was talking of a butterfly effect. If the warm air to the SW strays only a LITTLE bit further north, then it interact interacts with the jet stream and spins uo a new depression to move NW across N Britain. ECM 0z has picked up on this idea.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps.

We really could do with a dry period.

Ground has had such a soaking this year. Golf has been a real struggle this year at times with lots of courses being closed.

Today the perfect example