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Offline DEW  
#781 Posted : 24 October 2019 06:14:48(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

This weekend has a well-forecasted pulse of warm air from the south tangling with cold air over Scotland - latest GEFS suggest the heaviest rain will be N Wales & NW England rather than BBC suggesting S Wales/Midlands last night. Some wet snow over Pennines?

Once that's out of the way, HP for most of next week with the possibility of LP encroaching from the west. GEFS op and control runs say generally dry and on the cold side, though it's possible to cherry-pick exceptions. Presumably cold air following this weekend's weather gets established. Inverness has an impressive collection of snow row figures, though very little actual precipitation - just flurries?

GFS has abandoned its end-of-run northerly blast which was showing yesterday and replaced it with a less dramatic one a few days earlier. I'll believe that when I see it in actuality.

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Online Brian Gaze  
#782 Posted : 24 October 2019 08:46:17(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think.  

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline noodle doodle  
#783 Posted : 24 October 2019 08:59:19(UTC)
noodle doodle

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Location: edinburgh - 500ft

I know automatic IMBY weather forecasts are a bit dubious, but I'd like to bank this one for Penrith that predicts an accumulation of 40cm of snow :-)

 

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Offline tallyho_83  
#784 Posted : 24 October 2019 11:42:35(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Well - very cold ensembles for Aberdeen!??

Averaging around -5c @ 850hpa for the next week - maybe a tick up to -2c @ 850hpa in day days time but still well below the seasonal average and of course this is a long way off.

I am keen to know what the CET is for October!? Could be the first colder than average month since..!??

March 2018? - and when did we last have a colder than average October?

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Edited by user 24 October 2019 11:45:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

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Offline Surrey John  
#785 Posted : 24 October 2019 12:15:42(UTC)
Surrey John

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Location: West Wiltshire

The Met office charts have fronts all over the place,

especially the T+24   (0.00 hrs 25th)

Following the sequence through the 36 hour and 48 hour suggests Central and Northern England is going to be very wet, it will also be windy

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

there are also yellow warnings for rain at the weekend

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-10-26

 

 

 

Corsham, Wiltshire

95m ASL

Online idj20  
#786 Posted : 24 October 2019 14:30:35(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

ECM still going for a developing low atop the UK for this time next week while GFS maintain the settled outlook. 

It's usually GFS that like its lows!

JACKO4EVER  
#787 Posted : 24 October 2019 16:45:15(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think.  

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

Online Brian Gaze  
#788 Posted : 24 October 2019 17:04:12(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online Brian Gaze  
#789 Posted : 24 October 2019 17:04:26(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
 

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

Yes I think it was. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online Russwirral  
#790 Posted : 24 October 2019 18:18:59(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Originally Posted by: CreweCold Go to Quoted Post

 

The ground is already sopping wet around these parts from well above average summer rainfall and then further bouts of heavy rain so far this autumn. 

There will be big issues with flooding around the Midlands, Wales and N England if this turns out to be a wet winter.

 

Agreed.

 

I said earlier on the oct precip watch board that in the last 30 days ive had 140mm of rain. Potentially by the weekend i might see 200mm of rain over a 30 day period.

 

Thats a good explaination of why our ground is so swollen...

Offline DEW  
#791 Posted : 25 October 2019 06:32:13(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

GFS and associated GEFS move to a northerly scenario next week, HP to the west of and often close to the UK, temps below average as you might expect and mainly dry, though some GEFS runs have rainfall from (probably) the HP regressing a bit and allowing LP to come down the North Sea.

But ...

BBC last night was talking of a butterfly effect. If the warm air to the SW strays only a LITTLE bit further north, then it interact interacts with the jet stream and spins uo a new depression to move NW across N Britain. ECM 0z has picked up on this idea.

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Offline ballamar  
#792 Posted : 25 October 2019 11:08:03(UTC)
ballamar

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GFS throwing out some interesting synoptics at the later stages - lots of blocking around in the right places if you want cold
Offline ballamar  
#793 Posted : 25 October 2019 19:16:44(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

ECM looks Scandinavia high like, good to see early on
Offline DEW  
#794 Posted : 26 October 2019 05:13:18(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

GFS 0z has HP over UK slowly subsiding south over next week, to be replaced by cold NW-fed depression, looking quite vicious around Monday 4th; ECM 12z (Fri) and BBC collapse the HP earlier with depression moving in from the SW mid week. ECM looks similar to the GFS by the 4th but with the depression then standing off to the west rather than being over the UK.

GEFS runs generally dry util around 2nd Nov then rain with biggest totals in the south. Cold, too, though Op and control have a brief bit of warmth around the 1st-4th, the majority of runs (and the mean) keep it cold.

Don't see any sign of a Scandi high

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Offline roadrunnerajn  
#795 Posted : 26 October 2019 07:39:52(UTC)
roadrunnerajn

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The 00z GFS looks like the Russian snow cover will thaw away whilst we flood!!!
Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
Online Brian Gaze  
#796 Posted : 26 October 2019 10:49:39(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online Russwirral  
#797 Posted : 26 October 2019 10:58:59(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps.

 

We really could do with a dry period.

 

Ground has had such a soaking this year. Golf has been a real struggle this year at times with lots of courses being closed.

 

Today the perfect example

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#798 Posted : 26 October 2019 13:03:12(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Location: Forest Gate London

The 00z UKMO has us in High Pressure much more - Sunday to Thursday next week from this Sunday W/E.

GFS and ECMWF- are struggling to bring the Low Pressure breakdown - by either Thursday or much more likely by Friday next Week - they expect Wind and rain, areas of dry and bright breaks with Low Pressure wind and rain that could cover the UK N NW Europe and the North Atlantic for at least 5 days.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#799 Posted : 26 October 2019 13:42:37(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Location: Central Southern England

06z GFS picks up a persistent pattern from 1-11Nov of a tendency for LP to our S and HP over the NE.

The way it's modelled, looks as if the pattern is hard to break. Could be interesting.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ballamar  
#800 Posted : 26 October 2019 20:31:27(UTC)
ballamar

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Posts: 1,850
Location: Essex

Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical
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