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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,691  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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This weekend has a well-forecasted pulse of warm air from the south tangling with cold air over Scotland - latest GEFS suggest the heaviest rain will be N Wales & NW England rather than BBC suggesting S Wales/Midlands last night. Some wet snow over Pennines? Once that's out of the way, HP for most of next week with the possibility of LP encroaching from the west. GEFS op and control runs say generally dry and on the cold side, though it's possible to cherry-pick exceptions. Presumably cold air following this weekend's weather gets established. Inverness has an impressive collection of snow row figures, though very little actual precipitation - just flurries? GFS has abandoned its end-of-run northerly blast which was showing yesterday and replaced it with a less dramatic one a few days earlier. I'll believe that when I see it in actuality. |
His Majestie asked me whether that weather was usual in our Island. I told him that in 40 years I never knew the like before. (Charles II talking to his jailer in Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight (the 'Island')) |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,821
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The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 715
Location: edinburgh - 500ft
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I know automatic IMBY weather forecasts are a bit dubious, but I'd like to bank this one for Penrith that predicts an accumulation of 40cm of snow :-) SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 11,067
Location: Devon
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Well - very cold ensembles for Aberdeen!?? Averaging around -5c @ 850hpa for the next week - maybe a tick up to -2c @ 850hpa in day days time but still well below the seasonal average and of course this is a long way off. I am keen to know what the CET is for October!? Could be the first colder than average month since..!?? March 2018? - and when did we last have a colder than average October? SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES Edited by user 24 October 2019 11:45:12(UTC)
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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl) -------------------------------------- Winter 20/21 stats for Exeter of far: Coldest temp recorded -5.0c on 31/12/2020 - 01/01/2021 Coldest Daytime maxes recorded: +2.0c 09/01/2021 +1.5c 09/02/2021 Mildest daytime max recorded: 15.0c 28/01/21, 02/02/2021 No of morning frosts: 22 No of days with snow falling: 5 - 24/01/2021 (Slushy deposit), Light snow flurries/snow grains 08/02/2021, Snow flurry 09/02/2021. A dusting of 0.5-1.0cm on the morning of 11/02/2021. Light snow/ice pellets 13/02/2021 No of days with sleet falling: 6 No of days with rain/cold rain: = Lost count. --------------------------------------- Sean Moon Magical Moon www.magical-moon.com
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC) Posts: 931 Location: West Wiltshire
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Corsham, Wiltshire
95m ASL |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 28,427 Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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ECM still going for a developing low atop the UK for this time next week while GFS maintain the settled outlook.
It's usually GFS that like its lows!
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze  The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think. very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ?
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,821
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,821
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? Yes I think it was. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,010
Location: Wirral
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Originally Posted by: CreweCold The ground is already sopping wet around these parts from well above average summer rainfall and then further bouts of heavy rain so far this autumn. There will be big issues with flooding around the Midlands, Wales and N England if this turns out to be a wet winter. Agreed. I said earlier on the oct precip watch board that in the last 30 days ive had 140mm of rain. Potentially by the weekend i might see 200mm of rain over a 30 day period. Thats a good explaination of why our ground is so swollen... |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,691 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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GFS and associated GEFS move to a northerly scenario next week, HP to the west of and often close to the UK, temps below average as you might expect and mainly dry, though some GEFS runs have rainfall from (probably) the HP regressing a bit and allowing LP to come down the North Sea. But ... BBC last night was talking of a butterfly effect. If the warm air to the SW strays only a LITTLE bit further north, then it interact interacts with the jet stream and spins uo a new depression to move NW across N Britain. ECM 0z has picked up on this idea. |
His Majestie asked me whether that weather was usual in our Island. I told him that in 40 years I never knew the like before. (Charles II talking to his jailer in Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight (the 'Island')) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,847
Location: Essex
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GFS throwing out some interesting synoptics at the later stages - lots of blocking around in the right places if you want cold
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,847
Location: Essex
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ECM looks Scandinavia high like, good to see early on
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,691 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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GFS 0z has HP over UK slowly subsiding south over next week, to be replaced by cold NW-fed depression, looking quite vicious around Monday 4th; ECM 12z (Fri) and BBC collapse the HP earlier with depression moving in from the SW mid week. ECM looks similar to the GFS by the 4th but with the depression then standing off to the west rather than being over the UK. GEFS runs generally dry util around 2nd Nov then rain with biggest totals in the south. Cold, too, though Op and control have a brief bit of warmth around the 1st-4th, the majority of runs (and the mean) keep it cold. Don't see any sign of a Scandi high |
His Majestie asked me whether that weather was usual in our Island. I told him that in 40 years I never knew the like before. (Charles II talking to his jailer in Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight (the 'Island')) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,116
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The 00z GFS looks like the Russian snow cover will thaw away whilst we flood!!! |
Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,821
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Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,010
Location: Wirral
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps. We really could do with a dry period. Ground has had such a soaking this year. Golf has been a real struggle this year at times with lots of courses being closed. Today the perfect example |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,965 Location: Forest Gate London
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The 00z UKMO has us in High Pressure much more - Sunday to Thursday next week from this Sunday W/E. GFS and ECMWF- are struggling to bring the Low Pressure breakdown - by either Thursday or much more likely by Friday next Week - they expect Wind and rain, areas of dry and bright breaks with Low Pressure wind and rain that could cover the UK N NW Europe and the North Atlantic for at least 5 days. |
We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather. Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness. Laiq B. Home: East London Location around 61m ASL.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,524
Location: Central Southern England
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06z GFS picks up a persistent pattern from 1-11Nov of a tendency for LP to our S and HP over the NE. The way it's modelled, looks as if the pattern is hard to break. Could be interesting. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,847
Location: Essex
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Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical
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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
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