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Offline DEW  
#761 Posted : 22 October 2019 06:43:18(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Longer term ... remember a few days back when this week (beginning ca 20th) was going to be all HP dominated ? Forget it, LP near Sctland dominating. But hope springs eternal, both GFS and ECM have served it up again the following week (i.e. from 27th), over or just to the east of the UK - and if you want to take a punt on further ahead, GFS brings back LP, not deep but well south over England the week after that.

But low confidence - after an agreed dip in temp around the 26th there's a wide scatter in the GEFS ens in both temp and rainfall for the whole of the rest of the forecast period

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline idj20  
#762 Posted : 22 October 2019 08:53:40(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
Friday continues to model the feature further south

Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run


Unfortunately in turn that would deliver strong south west gales to the far South East, including Kent.

How depressing - and it's not even deep Autumn yet. 

Offline Brian Gaze  
#763 Posted : 22 October 2019 09:25:28(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Originally Posted by: haggishunter Go to Quoted Post

 

Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.

Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.

The interesting charts often appear in the autumn and spring. The jet usually fires and flattens more in the winter months. That's why my view is people should make the most of the interesting periods even if they occur in October or April. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline Russwirral  
#764 Posted : 22 October 2019 10:35:54(UTC)
Russwirral

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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



Unfortunately in turn that would deliver strong south west gales to the far South East, including Kent.

How depressing - and it's not even deep Autumn yet

 

Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.

Offline idj20  
#765 Posted : 22 October 2019 12:56:07(UTC)
idj20

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Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.



Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 

Back on topic, GFS seems bullish about a compact but rapidly developing "runner" low zipping ENE-wards across Southern England on Friday. It's unlikely to be another Oct '87 or St Judes '13 but may be enough to give me the first proper blow of the season, along with bringing yet more unwanted rain to central parts. 

However, the other models are much less keen on it so it's either GFS overcooking things or may end up being right on the money, like it usually is when it comes to this kind of set up from afar. 


Offline Bolty  
#766 Posted : 22 October 2019 12:57:17(UTC)
Bolty

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United Kingdom
Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Saint Snow  
#767 Posted : 22 October 2019 13:17:08(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 

 

It's different up here.

Autumn lasts between October and October.

 

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Tim A  
#768 Posted : 22 October 2019 13:41:30(UTC)
Tim A

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Originally Posted by: Bolty Go to Quoted Post

06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.

 

Lots of spread on the GFS ensembles for Friday night. Most don't show any snow.  Other models such as ECM are not entertaining the idea.  The Met Office automated data is nowhere near snow conditions at any point *(8-9c).

 

 

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

Offline Russwirral  
#769 Posted : 22 October 2019 14:06:56(UTC)
Russwirral

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

It's different up here.

Autumn lasts between October and October.

 

 



London and the south east enjoy drier and warmer conditions by default.  Us up north can experience Autumn at any part of the year, but only have the opportunity of some summer weather sometime around June.

 

youd think that would give us access to decent winter weather, but the south east does better again at that too. :(

Offline tallyho_83  
#770 Posted : 22 October 2019 17:49:55(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

This little feature coming in from the SW meeting the Northerly winds on Friday could have been a big snow event if this occurred in winter!??

Look at the huge temp gradient/contrast!? I think the GFS Op is going a bit OTT though!?

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#771 Posted : 22 October 2019 19:23:49(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Location: Forest Gate London

There is good agreement to 144hrs which is good, with the forecast and pattern agreed up to that point if you look at the ECMWF and UKMO Model.

There could be rain and snow in Scotland for Friday and Saturday.  And Friday has heavy rain for S SE and ESE England on this coming Friday.

Chilly for much of the UK on Saturday to Monday (3 days with winds blowing in from the NW then North.

What the Models do for after T144 is up in the air at the moment.  Wintry showers for Scotland on Saturday as well quite possible mixed with rain at lower levels.

Will the Eastern Mid North Atlantic High stay over the Western UK on Monday to Wednesday next week- GFS says No, but ECMWF says yes.  Will this forecast upgrade or downgrade for cold weather fans.  The 12z ECMWF and 12z UKMO has a blocked out Low Pressure for the Midwest North Atlantic to our WSW and South southwest with UK and NE Atlantic High Pressure hold firmly- to T144 at Monday next week- ECMWF has cold Northerly over UK even on Wednesday/ Thursday next week while today’s 12z GFS brings the Low P NE across the UK for same time period, then drags the cold Northerly as it passes SW to ENE.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline ballamar  
#772 Posted : 23 October 2019 06:53:17(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

Way off in terms of any accuracy but a very interesting chart

http://www.wetterzentral...maps/GFSOPNH00_384_1.png

Offline DEW  
#773 Posted : 23 October 2019 06:53:32(UTC)
DEW

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Get the current LP out of the way this weekend, then HP for a while until about 31st when both GFS and ECM have LP coming in from SW and linking up with cold LP over Scandi. GFS has an impressive N plunge on the 8th but that's a long way off and GFS' record isn't good.

GEFS consistent with this but better agreement than yesterday on temps below average

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#774 Posted : 23 October 2019 07:03:24(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Location: Muswell Hill, North London

The output at the moment is fascinating. Cool to cold at times for this time of year.

 

Mark

Stratford, London

Offline nsrobins  
#775 Posted : 23 October 2019 07:36:12(UTC)
nsrobins

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Location: South Hampshire

High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.
Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline idj20  
#776 Posted : 23 October 2019 08:27:27(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post
High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.


Although it looks like Southern coasts and the far South East actually missing out on the bulk of the general rain with Wales and the Midlands getting the brunt of that (possibly some wintry stuff over the Pennines) while here at Kent it'll be a windy but mostly dry night - at least until the squally-like cold front passes over us in the small hours of Saturday morning. 
Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 

Offline Saint Snow  
#777 Posted : 23 October 2019 09:40:56(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 

 

Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 

 

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline idj20  
#778 Posted : 23 October 2019 15:30:34(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 

 

 



 Or just drink an extra couple of shots so that they are even more drunk to notice the rain and wind after closing time. 

Anyway, back on course.

GFS seems keen on a quieter settled week next week with HP taking control, but ECM less so with another LP popping up out of nowhere in 2nd half of week. Here's hoping for more of an agreement on the quieter theme in the 12z updates.

Offline Russwirral  
#779 Posted : 23 October 2019 17:46:27(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+

Offline Brian Gaze  
#780 Posted : 23 October 2019 17:51:35(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Posts: 46,715

Yes. This morning I flagged up the possibility of a very wet Saturday. Definitely something to watch. All in all it continues to be a very interesting period of weather.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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