Further to my postin the coming winter tab - has anyone noticed the abnormally cold conditions to our north?

 

Its not normally this cold this early to our north, for the past decade cold has originated from the far east.

 

This chart wouldnt look out of place for early December. (cold pooling to our north - wise)

 

Quick check of temps echoes this :

 

Note the cold temps at sea surface - this is usually something that takes hold once Winter has arrived.  IT could be we see a large growth of sea ice to our North.  This could be a big player on our winter

 

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Further to my postin the coming winter tab - has anyone noticed the abnormally cold conditions to our north?

 

Its not normally this cold this early to our north, for the past decade cold has originated from the far east.

 

This chart wouldnt look out of place for early December. (cold pooling to our north - wise)

 

Quick check of temps echoes this :

 

Note the cold temps at sea surface - this is usually something that takes hold once Winter has arrived.  IT could be we see a large growth of sea ice to our North.  This could be a big player on our winter

 

The last time such happened was in 2010 if I’m not mistaken.😎

The last time such happened was in 2010 if I’m not mistaken.😎

Isn’t there a theory that cold winters go in a cycle of around 10/11 years?  I can’t think what it’s called (a Halle Winter perhaps?)  I remember reading about it in 2010. 

[edit] Doh!  Not quite right!  It’s a Hale winter, I read about it in 2008 and the cycle is 22 years. 

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Doesn't increased cold within the Arctic circle at this time of the year only serve to produce a mid-latitude sharp temperature contrast and fire up the Atlantic conveyor belt complete with cyclogenesis early in the Autumn season? Especially as there are still a lot of tropic airmasses floating around in mid-latitude.

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Tuesday 8 Oct - Thursday 17 Oct

After early rain clears from the southeast, Tuesday is expected to be a windy day of sunshine and blustery showers, some heavy with hail and thunder. The unsettled weather looks set to continue for the rest of the week with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but feeling colder in the wind and rain. Over the following weekend the weather may well remain changeable though there is less confidence about this. However, some longer drier spells may develop in the south and east. There are some signs for drier and brighter weather to develop more widely by the end of the period, increasing the risk of fog overnight.

Friday 18 Oct - Friday 1 Nov

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. There are some signs for a drier, brighter and more settled spell during the middle of the month. However, changeable conditions are more likely to dominate towards the end of October, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Temperatures are likely to be near or a touch above average for October, though any quieter spells could bring overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Isn’t there a theory that cold winters go in a cycle of around 10/11 years?  I can’t think what it’s called (a Halle Winter perhaps?)  I remember reading about it in 2010. 

[edit] Doh!  Not quite right!  It’s a Hale winter, I read about it in 2008 and the cycle is 22 years. 

Theres all sorts of cycles 11, 21, 300 years etc, etc, I’ll take any of them if it guaranteed a cold winter but for our part of the world we’re always up against it due that warm ocean on our doorstep. The AMO for me is a big player and that’s due to switch to its cold phase soon.

Lorenzo should be out of the way in 24 hours or so, then it's a series of Atlantic depressions. For a couple of days the HP block over Scandinavia holds them up with fronts stalling over the UK, but after that GFS 0z keeps them north of Scotland. ECM  has a deeper LP further south on the 13th bringing down some quite cold air. GEFS shows temps below average until then, after which there is less certainty but some hope for late warmth.

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General westerly pattern with all the variability that implies, unsettled and mostly on the cool side, GFS and ECM agree on a more southerly tracking LP in the week beginning 13th, with a blocking high over Greenland.

Snow cover over Eurasis has jumped this last week https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

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General westerly pattern with all the variability that implies, unsettled and mostly on the cool side, GFS and ECM agree on a more southerly tracking LP in the week beginning 13th, with a blocking high over Greenland.

Snow cover over Eurasis has jumped this last week https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Excelent site that is - I look at it often - This past week snowcover in Eastern Siberia has increased rapidly.

 

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16th Oct - Scotland's First snow of the season?? One model and one run! - We shall see?

Both operational and Control run look cold anyway, but operational wants to build a stronger 'block' of HP over Greenland!!

Op

 

Control:

 

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General agreement on depressions rolling across the UK for the next 10+ days and thus unsettled, rain everywhere but more in the north, cool everywhere but less so in the south. Snow? only for the tops in Scotland IMO

Watch out for occasional more intense LP further south, though these are likely to come and go with each successive run. Yesterday the 13th was the favoured date, now put back to later that week. HP over Greenland is a feature, but not linking up with anything over Scandi so plenty of room for LP to run SW-NE across the Atlantic.

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Continuing unsettled, as before. At the end of the GFS run, after the 20th, there is a break in the pattern with a southerly-tracking low, matched with the jet stream dipping a long way south. This matches a sudden uptick in GEFS rainfall totals for the south. at that time

But that's all a long way off so could change

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Latest MetOffice GLOSEA5 Zonal Wind and Polar Cap height Charts for October into November suggests a strong vortex aloft feeding down into lower levels #PolarVortex Any Thoughts @judah47 @MJVentrice pic.twitter.com/ixX0pDRxn8

— Met-Set (@Met_Set_UK) October 6, 2019

Latest MetOffice GLOSEA5 Zonal Wind and Polar Cap height Charts for October into November suggests a strong vortex aloft feeding down into lower levels #PolarVortex Any Thoughts @judah47 @MJVentrice pic.twitter.com/ixX0pDRxn8

— Met-Set (@Met_Set_UK) October 6, 2019

Any thoughts? Yes - horribly depressing news :-(

So we have to wait for winter 2020-21 and hope that one delivers.

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From the Coming Winter 2019/20 thread:

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

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Isn’t there a theory that cold winters go in a cycle of around 10/11 years?  I can’t think what it’s called (a Halle Winter perhaps?)  I remember reading about it in 2010. 

[edit] Doh!  Not quite right!  It’s a Hale winter, I read about it in 2008 and the cycle is 22 years. 

It's links to sunspot activity, with the minima (very low numbers) linked to an increased risk of colder northern hemisphere winters due to an increased probability of high latitude blocking.

Like SSWs, it depends on many other factors as well as the pressure patterns falling just right for our tiny corner of the globe.

But, yes, we should be at the point in the cycle where the odds are better on some colder weather.

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Now focusing on next Sunday, as it's pencilled in for our annual trip to Alton Towers' 'Scarefest'.

Last year, due a other issues, we only got to go the Sunday before Halloween and it was packed - but the weather was dry and crisp. Too crisp. In fact, it was bloody brass monkeys. I could feel myself getting chilled throughout the day, and becoming more worried about the girls, especially when it got dark (when Scarefest really comes alive!). I think the day before there'd been snow showers.

Anyway, I'm now seeing this week's low moving eastwards and filling a bit as we hit the weekend, with Sunday offering a brief respite from the high to our south ridging northwards a little before the next system moves in.

I hate these situations, as the 'dry window' always moves about as the days pass and sod's law dictates one's hopes will be built then dashed.

It's a tough one, because the following week looks like being 'Pikey Day' where thousands of traveller scrotes descend on the place. It's a horrible atmosphere, with gangs of them acting intimidatory, loads of queue-jumping and thieving, and sporadic fights breaking out amongst them. There's a load of extra security laid on, including actual police, but it just ruins the day.

 

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Still remaining zonal for the immediate future. GFS can't make up its mind for the more distant future - yesterday's southerly tracking low is now so far south that the UK has a settled and warm HP for a few days around the 21st; but GEFS is showing only a recovery from below normal to normal temps at this date. Keep watching!

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Looks like a warm plume is heading towards Central Europe. Highs in the low 20s are forecast widely across the likes of Berlin, Prague and Warsaw over the weekend and beyond. 

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Looks like a warm plume is heading towards Central Europe. Highs in the low 20s are forecast widely across the likes of Berlin, Prague and Warsaw over the weekend and beyond. 

Impressively warm for many parts of Europe let alone central yes! Many places experiencing temps in their low to mid 20's C:

 

 

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