Ticking up nicely in recent days:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?type=daily&location=Inverness#Inverness

 

Serious question - does the number in the snow row have any meaning when (almost) no precipitation is forecast for that day? A few flurries perhaps?

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Serious question - does the number in the snow row have any meaning when (almost) no precipitation is forecast for that day? A few flurries perhaps?

With the SST anomalies in the Arctic and the minimal extent of sea ice, I would not expect northerlies to offer much in the way of bite any longer for the majority.  I would however imagine that the Cairngorms would still do well.

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Serious question - does the number in the snow row have any meaning when (almost) no precipitation is forecast for that day? A few flurries perhaps?

A check for the amount of precipitation is not made so as you say it may amount to little or virtually nothing! At the end of the day it's another forecast tool which may help to predict the likelihood of snow.

 

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I suspect the grid point is for a hilly area near Inverness and if there was no precipitation forecast the value would surely be 0? Each “row” will show both precipitation being forecast and that precipitation being of snow. What it won’t tell you is how much. Based on the ensemble data, not much. As for snow extent, I think the level will be at around 500 or 600m asl with only transient covering quite a bit above that level.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_66_48.png 

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Lorenzo heading away from the UK thankfully could be quite a nice day on Friday 

 

Lorenzo heading away from the UK thankfully could be quite a nice day on Friday 

 

On Countryfile, they said it was still 50/50 whether Lorenzo would track east or north and that the end of the week is very uncertain.

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Lorenzo heading away from the UK thankfully could be quite a nice day on Friday 

 

I would be a bit cautious about that conclusion given that one more model has it missing to our NW, the other to our south!

GEM gives a blend of both solutions https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_108_1.png 

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Lorenzo somewhere around the UK on Thursday but still no agreement. GFS, all GEFS and NHC all show it moving north past Ireland (NHC with a marked slowdown); ECM, UKMet and FAX show a rapidly declining feature moving across the south of England (ECM very rapidly, FAX less so). Weather fo the week ahead hedged its bets last night and gave both.

After that, a general return to unsettled weather.

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Where has that pesky Azores High gone? The same place as Lord Lucan, Shergar and Madeleine McCann no doubt.

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Where has that pesky Azores High gone? The same place as Lord Lucan, Shergar and Madeleine McCann no doubt.

No, it's definitely not in my freezer.

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Today's runs now showing Lorenzo still as a powerful storm affecting Northern Ireland and the Western Isles late Thursday into Friday but decaying quite rapidly. Models differ as to whether it decays in situ (ECM, some GEFS) or slumps SE-wards across N England as a 'normal' depression (other GEFS, FAX).

After that unsettled weather from the Atlantic continues, with occasional brief cold snaps on the tail end of passing depressions

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Interesting cooling trend throughout October on the ensembles. Nothing to get excited about but an interesting trend none the less

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Interesting cooling trend throughout October on the ensembles. Nothing to get excited about but an interesting trend none the less

Yes looking like it could be quite a cool and autumnal month, quite a contrast to some recent Octobers. With frost quite likely tomorrow night I'm even starting to think about getting the woodburner ready!

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After a cool start September appears to have finished comfortably above CET. Not saying October will follow the same pattern but I would be cautious about the prospect of a colder month at this stage. There's hasn't been one yet this year. Also the ensembles are jumping around at the moment due to the uncertainty with Lorenzo.

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The current GFS run is a cracker if all the temps were about 12*C lower.

 

The synoptics as far as the eye can see is just Scandi highs with Moisture laden fronts smashing into it...

 

Instead of white, we get brown and lots of puddles :(

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Very unusual to see scandinavia getting such a cold spell so early.... its been maybe a decade since i saw something so strong so early

 

 

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Track of ex-Lorenzo now generally agreed to cross N Ireland (Thu) and then SE-wards across England to East Anglia by late Friday. The intensity of the wind shown by the models varies quite a lot from GFS (quite weak) through ECM to FAX to NHC (sustained 40 mph)

After that, for a long time ahead, LP near NW Britain, wet in the north with fronts brushing the south. I wouldn't be surprised to see some secondary depressions further south turning up in due course. GFS had one at the end of its run last night, but not showing this morning.

Lots of rain, anyway http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

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Yes looking like it could be quite a cool and autumnal month, quite a contrast to some recent Octobers. With frost quite likely tomorrow night I'm even starting to think about getting the woodburner ready!

Finally!!

Fed up of boring Autumns!

I have notice an increase amount of rain and strong winds this Autumn so far in contrast to previous autumns .

I think could be the fact that many TS or Hurricanes are heading NE quicker instead of heading towards the eastern Seaboard - Dorian is a prime example - we had remnants of that as well as other recent ones and now Lorenzo!?

Last year many TS's and Hurricanes went into the eastern seaboard and gulf - if you recall?

Sept 2018 there was Hurricane Florence which hit South Carolina.

Sept 2017 there was Hurricane Irma - Which made landfall over south Florida?

- These coincided with drier than average autumns for the UK.

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Finally!!

Fed up of boring Autumns!

So am I but this one is turning into the worst of the lot.

I can’t imagine how the outlook could be more boring than this:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfnt07u1s 

It is just torture and an even more extreme version of the excruciating tedium that has characterised autumn over the past 20 years.

Devoid of sun, devoid of warmth, devoid of cold. More stupid double digits mins and generally write-off conditions without being remotely interesting.

I cannot recall another year when the late September/early October weather was so consistently awful and depressing. Every single day is miserable. Even years like 2014 and 2017 were nowhere near as bad as this

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Lorenzo passing over the UK and decaying rapidly from 981 mb (W Ireland) to 1001 (E Anglia) - figures from FAX chart Therafter a series of Atlantic depressions seem determined to show they can do just as well though not so intense. There's one on Thursdsy 10th at 975mb over Shetland ushering in a sustained period of below average temps, but also giving some really low early winter temps over Scandinavia / NW Russia http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

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