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Offline Downpour  
#581 Posted : 15 September 2019 14:18:14(UTC)
Downpour

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Location: London E4

 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post


 


 


Me too... before a drastic switch to the onset of a bone-chilling winter sometime around late November 




When September doth be dry and hot


The coming winter will freeze the lot

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Offline DEW  
#582 Posted : 16 September 2019 06:20:11(UTC)
DEW

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Fine and settled this week after disposing of the remnants of the cold front today. HP transferring east so warmer air moving in up to and including next weekend. Thereafter general agreement on a cooler (i.e. near average) and more unsettled spell, though the models now seem to be looking at standard Atlantic fare rather than bringing in Hurricane remnants.


GFS 0z with a beast of a depression at the end of its run on Oct 2, but this probably won't last as long as the 06z

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline The Beast from the East  
#583 Posted : 16 September 2019 07:20:50(UTC)
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EC ens looking more settled than the op, at least for the south. But summer looks on its last legs. But we've had a good run

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Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#584 Posted : 16 September 2019 20:08:08(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East Go to Quoted Post


EC ens looking more settled than the op, at least for the south. But summer looks on its last legs. But we've had a good run



Yes, I’ll be happy with one last nice weekend now. But I am starting to shift into Autumn/Winter mode now.

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline DEW  
#585 Posted : 17 September 2019 06:45:04(UTC)
DEW

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A bit of a shift this morning, with hurricane-inspired depressions affecting the UK around the 24th (that'll be Humberto) on both GFS 0z and ECM, and then again on the 28th (GFS). GFS seems keener than ECM on fitting in a bit of warmth in between. Ens runs go into a real scramble after the 24th.


But while we're waiting for the main event, BBC weather is now supported by GEFS in offering some thunderstorms for the south coast on Sunday. A light show would be nice- haven't had one here yet this year (though IIRC only just missed one which went to Portsmouth instead)

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#586 Posted : 17 September 2019 10:06:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post


 


 


When September doth be dry and hot


The coming winter will freeze the lot



If ice in November my bear a duck - then winter will be of slush and muck.

Gavin S.
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Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
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Offline Hungry Tiger  
#587 Posted : 17 September 2019 14:20:31(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Amazing some snow cover already in the Russian Far East.


 


https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


 


 

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Online ballamar  
#588 Posted : 17 September 2019 17:42:36(UTC)
ballamar

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Anyone else looking at the far reaches of models looking for signs of frost and wintry showers??
Offline doctormog  
#589 Posted : 17 September 2019 17:46:27(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Anyone else looking at the far reaches of models looking for signs of frost and wintry showers??


I’m guessing you spotted the charts at the end of the GFS 1z op run? 


It is somewhat of a cold outlier up here. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

Offline Bertwhistle  
#590 Posted : 17 September 2019 18:37:18(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


Amazing some snow cover already in the Russian Far East.


 


https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


 


 



Uh-oh; the OPI is edging in early this year.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake!
Offline Bertwhistle  
#591 Posted : 17 September 2019 18:40:39(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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When weather folk tales hit the screen


We know the thread must need a clean.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake!
Offline Gandalf The White  
#592 Posted : 17 September 2019 19:26:38(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Anyone else looking at the far reaches of models looking for signs of frost and wintry showers??


Not until November.  At this stage in the cycle I'm still looking for settled summerlike weather whilst the sun is still reasonably strong and the days are longer than the nights.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Offline Gandalf The White  
#593 Posted : 17 September 2019 19:28:23(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post


When weather folk tales hit the screen


We know the thread must need a clean.



Arctic blast in the 12z, gone by morning....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Offline Chunky Pea  
#594 Posted : 17 September 2019 23:32:16(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post


 


Arctic blast in the 12z, gone by morning....



To creep back in, whilst we are snoring. 

"There are nights when the wolves fall silent and only the moon howls"
--George Carlin.
Offline DEW  
#595 Posted : 18 September 2019 05:56:40(UTC)
DEW

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Breakdown of the fine weather around Mon/Tues 23/24 with major depression to north of UK - quite a good result for longterm forecasting as this was predicted some 10 days back, though the showers now included as curtain raiser on Sunday weren't spotted.


GFS keeps the weather unsettled for the week, but ECM has HP returning to the south at least, These two models  have swapped their forecast positions since yesterday. After that, the chance of something drier and more settled for the first week of October, especially in the south, though not as good as the present spell.


The cold pool is back in western Russia - they've had a miserably cold summer. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


 

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Gavin D  
#596 Posted : 18 September 2019 08:18:41(UTC)
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Looking at ECM the rest of this week remains mostly settled with Saturday possibly quite warm as we pick up a southerly 



Things start to deteriorate during Sunday and that sets up the first proper unsettled spell of Autumn with low pressure never far away next week



SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline DEW  
#597 Posted : 19 September 2019 06:23:04(UTC)
DEW

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Macs and brollies out for nest week. Do you really want a detailed analysis?

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline The Beast from the East  
#598 Posted : 19 September 2019 09:11:06(UTC)
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The models have handled the breakdown very well, I was hoping Humberto would sustain things, but sadly not


Looks like Sunday is the last warm day, then its central heating switch on time!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Offline AJ*  
#599 Posted : 19 September 2019 10:46:26(UTC)
AJ*

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Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post


Breakdown of the fine weather around Mon/Tues 23/24 with major depression to north of UK - quite a good result for longterm forecasting as this was predicted some 10 days back, though the showers now included as curtain raiser on Sunday weren't spotted.



Yes, I've noticed that it has been predicted consistently for a long time by the GEFS.


I've also noticed that the major change in weather pattern pretty much coincides with the equinox, and this has provoked me to wonder whether there could be any correlation between the two (while bearing in mind the awareness that correlation is not causation), or whether it is indeed just coincidence. Is anyone aware of any past instances of major changes in weather pattern happening at the equinox (either vernal or autumnal)?  Perhaps this needs a separate thread, but as it is relevant to forecasting, I'll start by asking here.

Offline Saint Snow  
#600 Posted : 19 September 2019 11:27:56(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post


Macs and brollies out for nest week. Do you really want a detailed analysis?



 


It's almost like the weather gods will always seek and find a way for this country to get crap weather.


 


 

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