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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#41 Posted : 20 July 2019 07:42:09(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Gotta love the ECM keeps it hot in the SE out to day 10. Hopefully it's playing a blinder here as its different to most other output. 

Offline Downpour  
#42 Posted : 20 July 2019 07:46:36(UTC)
Downpour

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

ECM keeps it potentially hot in the south east out to 240.

 

A stunning run. I don’t think it’ll work out quite like that though. More likely that the dome shunts east and the Azores high nudges in, which keeps it warm, but not hot, in the SE.

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#43 Posted : 20 July 2019 08:08:37(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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ECM means would suggest many of the ensembles back a similar evolution to the op. Heat hangs on in the SE +15c 850s, until Friday.  then remains very warm in the south with high pressure building in.  Basically very good.

Offline Global Warming  
#44 Posted : 20 July 2019 08:36:50(UTC)
Global Warming

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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

ECM means would suggest many of the ensembles back a similar evolution to the op. Heat hangs on in the SE +15c 850s, until Friday.  then remains very warm in the south with high pressure building in.  Basically very good.

2m temperatures from the 0z ECM ENS for De Bilt

https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Still uncertainty for the end of next week. A cluster of runs going for cooler conditions from Friday. Control run very cool on Saturday but Op run stays very hot until Saturday.

Beyond that a general trend to cooler conditions (but probably still close to average) by the start of August.

Edited by user 20 July 2019 08:38:06(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Gavin D  
#45 Posted : 20 July 2019 08:48:17(UTC)
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Looking at UKMO the start of next week looks increasingly hot and dry away from west

By mid-week we start to see showers breaking out with the heat around these are likely to be torrential and thundery where they do develop

Towards the end of the week we continue to see some rain/showers but with fresher air from the west

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Offline briggsy6  
#46 Posted : 20 July 2019 09:10:06(UTC)
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Shame, I'd rather have seen a continuation of the pleasantly warm, dry conditions but it's not to be.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline David M Porter  
#47 Posted : 20 July 2019 09:14:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

Shame, I'd rather have seen a continuation of the pleasantly warm, dry conditions but it's not to be.

The night-time temps shown by the BBC for next week suggest to me that humidity will be quite high in many areas next week, until the fresher air moves in. I'd rather that it wasn't too humid as it is hellish for me trying to get to sleep at night.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline TimS  
#48 Posted : 20 July 2019 10:33:29(UTC)
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06z GFS evolves in a similar way to 00z next week. Thursday hot but cold front Thurs pm into Friday and fresh thereafter.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Bertwhistle  
#49 Posted : 20 July 2019 12:18:55(UTC)
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Slight improvement in the GFS Ens: quick look at the 2m T postage stamps gives a mean on Wed a degree up on the earlier run. Thursday still best bet as the transition day. But that's 5 days away- could shift a day either way; the enhancing low that spoils the show hasn't formed yet, and might be more or less intense & extensive than modelled. 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline bledur  
#50 Posted : 20 July 2019 13:01:41(UTC)
bledur

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Originally Posted by: Shropshire Go to Quoted Post

Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 

Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 

 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.

Offline Brian Gaze  
#51 Posted : 20 July 2019 13:44:12(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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The discussion in here has been a lot better on the whole since the thread was closed in May. However in recent days I have noticed a few off topics posts creeping back in. If you have an issue with another member raise it with me or one of the mods rather than publicly here. 

If you haven't read the thread in the FA discussing the MO please take a look. It is us here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20046

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline David M Porter  
#52 Posted : 20 July 2019 16:19:10(UTC)
David M Porter

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Originally Posted by: bledur Go to Quoted Post

Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 

 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.

Knowing what the model output has often been like this summer, it probably will change again.

The theme of the output this summer generally so far is that anything for more than 5-6 days ahead has more often than not been subject to change. It is now looking more likely that the mini-heatwave will be pretty much over by Friday, but time will tell as to whether or not it will be the start of a prolonged cooler and more unsettled spell.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline TimS  
#53 Posted : 20 July 2019 16:39:12(UTC)
TimS

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GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline David M Porter  
#54 Posted : 20 July 2019 17:03:37(UTC)
David M Porter

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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.

This has been the biggest barrier during this summer thus far to us getting a sustained settled spell, like we saw for much of the time during the first two-thirds of last summer. What I have noticed in the output quite regularly since late May/early June is that pressure over Greenland seems to have been fairly high for much of the time, and as a result the jet stream has not stayed to the north of the UK for long. Hopefully that will change as we go into August, but we shall see.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#55 Posted : 20 July 2019 17:42:11(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.

Mark

Stratford, London

Offline RobN  
#56 Posted : 20 July 2019 18:34:49(UTC)
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GFS Op has big NW-SE split in the rainfall totals over next 10 days.

NW Scotland washout

Sussex and Kent arid

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Rob

Sometimes a few miles north of Cambridge on a hill in the flatlands of East Anglia 15m ASL

Other times in south east Gloucestershire near the River Thames 75m ASL.

Offline Nick Gilly  
#57 Posted : 20 July 2019 18:35:32(UTC)
Nick Gilly

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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post
I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.

 

Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#58 Posted : 20 July 2019 18:39:48(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...

I think we will hit 35C. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion we’ll hit the July record as well

Mark

Stratford, London

Offline TimS  
#59 Posted : 20 July 2019 19:42:49(UTC)
TimS

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No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Polar Low  
#60 Posted : 20 July 2019 19:52:02(UTC)
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36C on the raw at 120 apparently can we add a couple on?

850,s at that time

Limited sea modification in that s/e corner at that time

 

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 20 July 2019 19:57:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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