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Offline Rob K  
#541 Posted : 03 September 2019 10:33:01(UTC)
Rob K

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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

ECM really turning up the heat this morning,  could we be heading towards a mid September heatwave?

The GFS ensembles look rather cool, mostly below average but with some warmer outliers especially later in the run.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#542 Posted : 03 September 2019 11:09:49(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post

 

The GFS ensembles look rather cool, mostly below average but with some warmer outliers especially later in the run.

 

Yes very different something has to give soon.

 

Offline DEW  
#543 Posted : 05 September 2019 06:19:27(UTC)
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Variable over the next few days with alternating warmth/coolth and HP/LP. Signs of a more settled and warm spell from middle of next week supported by most but not all GEFS runs. But with Dorian and Gabrielle as well as an unnamed storm moving into N Atlantic models may struggle to achieve reliability

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline DEW  
#544 Posted : 06 September 2019 06:18:03(UTC)
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Not much change from yesterday though GEFS ens have become more positive about warmth from about the 15th onwards (but the synoptics suggest a day or two earlier, and not so persistent)

After a couple of bursts of rain early next week, generally dry across the UK.

Still the caveat about remnants of hurricanes upsetting the models.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Saint Snow  
#545 Posted : 06 September 2019 08:09:11(UTC)
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Good job we have you to give us these summarised updates, DEW. Nobody else seems bothered any more. 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Col  
#546 Posted : 06 September 2019 09:32:11(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Good job we have you to give us these summarised updates, DEW. Nobody else seems bothered any more. 

You won't be saying that in a few months' time if/when there is severe cold spell on the cards!

I think it's just because September isn't usually that interesting a month. Far too early for cold and normally for notable gales, yet the real heat of summer has generally gone. It's certainly my least favourite month of the year weatherwise.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline briggsy6  
#547 Posted : 06 September 2019 10:00:24(UTC)
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I love the season of misty mellow fruitfulness. The first foggy morning of Sept. with weak sunlight just starting to show up all the myriad spider's webs on the holly hedge next to the house, is always a revalation to me. Maybe the old memory box is cheating me, but it seems to happen a lot less often nowadays compared to in my youth though.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline DEW  
#548 Posted : 06 September 2019 10:01:27(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

You won't be saying that in a few months' time if/when there is severe cold spell on the cards!

I think it's just because September isn't usually that interesting a month. Far too early for cold and normally for notable gales, yet the real heat of summer has generally gone. It's certainly my least favourite month of the year weatherwise.

True for this September. But if any of the hurricanes or their remnants stopped messing around with Newfoundland and headed across the Atlantic ... No sign of that at the moment, they're all being whisked away by the jet stream up to Iceland and northern Norway.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline ballamar  
#549 Posted : 06 September 2019 10:40:41(UTC)
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https://www.wetterzentra...mp;mv=0&tr=24#mapref

If this comes off could be some chilly foggy mornings

Online four  
#550 Posted : 06 September 2019 10:59:56(UTC)
four

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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

If this comes off could be some chilly foggy mornings

Also early chilling of Western Russia

Offline Chunky Pea  
#551 Posted : 06 September 2019 11:17:49(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: four Go to Quoted Post


Also early chilling of Western Russia

 

I read recently that Moscow had one of its coldest summers on record this year. 

"There are nights when the wolves fall silent and only the moon howls"

--George Carlin.

Offline briggsy6  
#552 Posted : 06 September 2019 11:30:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

If this comes off could be some chilly foggy mornings

The weather Gods are listening to my pleas it would seem. 

Location: Uxbridge
Offline Rob K  
#553 Posted : 06 September 2019 13:00:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

 

True for this September. But if any of the hurricanes or their remnants stopped messing around with Newfoundland and headed across the Atlantic ... No sign of that at the moment, they're all being whisked away by the jet stream up to Iceland and northern Norway.

I'm off to Iceland at the end of next week so watching those hurricane remnants with interest! Currently it's looking like a decent chance of high pressure setting up over Greenland and  bringing some cool weather up there, some early snow around perhaps.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline DEW  
#554 Posted : 06 September 2019 13:34:52(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea Go to Quoted Post

 I read recently that Moscow had one of its coldest summers on record this year. 

Followers of http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 have seen a persistent cold pool over western Russia this summer (down to 6C below average quite often), and I've commented on it 2 or 3 times when the models for the UK were boring.

For Rob, the same site is now showing average day-night temps below zero in Iceland, a little bit this week and rather more next.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline DEW  
#555 Posted : 07 September 2019 05:57:19(UTC)
DEW

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Generally an Atlantic influence over the next week or so - a bit of oscillation between warm and cool, with rain around on Monday and Wednesday or thereabouts, after which good chances of a warm spell and especially dry in the south.

But I see that this morning's NHC hurricane tracks show Gabrielle as stronger and more persistent than previously expected

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

arriving as a tropical storm about 150-200 miles off N Ireland on Wed evening. The major models show it there but as a minor feature, so may have adjustments to come.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Hippydave  
#556 Posted : 07 September 2019 08:33:16(UTC)
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Yup sadly for my CET guess fairly reasonable signs at the moment for a change from the middle of the month, with HP in charge. A fair bit of warm air gets dragged up too, courtesy of depressions defecting North Eastwards the from the HP cell. ECM singing from the same hymn sheet.

Not a done deal of course at that range and a slight change to intensity or track of the tropical features could have a dramatic influence on our weather.

 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: East Grinstead

Offline The Beast from the East  
#557 Posted : 07 September 2019 08:45:43(UTC)
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Proper Indian summer possible. I'm trying to avoid starting up the central heating again for as long as I can! Hope the pilot light is still on!

 

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Offline TimS  
#558 Posted : 07 September 2019 09:27:27(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East Go to Quoted Post

Proper Indian summer possible. I'm trying to avoid starting up the central heating again for as long as I can! Hope the pilot light is still on!

 

Getting close this weekend here, and we’re in London. I’ve just started a thread.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Bertwhistle  
#559 Posted : 08 September 2019 06:19:45(UTC)
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Op doing its best to get noticed this morning; brings temperatures in the high twenties to the S!

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online AJ*  
#560 Posted : 08 September 2019 09:23:08(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

Op doing its best to get noticed this morning; brings temperatures in the high twenties to the S!

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

What I notice more than the high temps on that chart is the nearly complete absence of rainfall after the next few days.

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