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Offline Gavin D  
#481 Posted : 20 August 2019 11:10:53(UTC)
Gavin D

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Looking at the ECM weeklies for the next 4 weeks this week and next week sees temps a bit above average overall with below average rain away from the NW 

Week 1                                                      Week 2

Week 3

The start of autumn looks very unsettled UK wide with above average rainfall and temps fairly close to average overall

Week 4

A drier picture nationally with below average rainfall with temps around average

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#482 Posted : 20 August 2019 17:41:14(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Whisper it quietly folks but we could be on the verge of a decent little heatwave.  We could be touching 30c for 5 days in a row in the south from Saturday 

 

Offline TimS  
#483 Posted : 20 August 2019 17:51:03(UTC)
TimS

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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Whisper it quietly folks but we could be on the verge of a decent little heatwave.  We could be touching 30c for 5 days in a row in the south from Saturday 

 

Indeed, rather an unheralded one this, but potentially the longest lived of any hot spell this summer.

I‘m heading to Devon next Thursday. That looks like the next big fork in the road between continued warmth and a cool plunge.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#484 Posted : 20 August 2019 17:59:42(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Hopefully a significantly long spell of warmth on the way. Pretty dry too.

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#485 Posted : 20 August 2019 18:01:04(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

 

Indeed, rather an unheralded one this, but potentially the longest lived of any hot spell this summer.

I‘m heading to Devon next Thursday. That looks like the next big fork in the road between continued warmth and a cool plunge.

 

Looking at the GEFS more runs keep the warmth going after thursday so hopefully your get lucky..

Offline Downpour  
#486 Posted : 20 August 2019 20:40:04(UTC)
Downpour

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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Hopefully a significantly long spell of warmth on the way. Pretty dry too.

The TWO Ian Brown Index tells its own story.

The much-vaunted Ian Row is at zero.

Warm and sunny for the foreseeable.

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Offline DEW  
#487 Posted : 21 August 2019 06:54:11(UTC)
DEW

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First weekly mean surface temperature below zero - in Iceland

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Rob K  
#488 Posted : 21 August 2019 09:33:03(UTC)
Rob K

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Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

First weekly mean surface temperature below zero - in Iceland

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

I’m going to Iceland for a week in mid September. Could be some early snow around!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Solar Cycles  
#489 Posted : 21 August 2019 09:42:28(UTC)
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A warm dry spell appears to be on the cards for at least the next 7-10 days for many, so what’s left of this abysmal summer should at least bow out on a summery note.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#490 Posted : 21 August 2019 17:26:27(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Hot 12s so far GFS has 90f on 3 consecutive days. GEM and ICON look equally hot , UKMO though slightly more unsettled. 

Offline Downpour  
#491 Posted : 21 August 2019 19:35:36(UTC)
Downpour

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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Hot 12s so far GFS has 90f on 3 consecutive days. GEM and ICON look equally hot , UKMO though slightly more unsettled. 

It is looking better, and better, and better.

Wonderful outlook across the bank holiday weekend and beyond in what is still the quintessential summer month. 

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Offline briggsy6  
#492 Posted : 21 August 2019 22:30:55(UTC)
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Every time I look the forecast temps have been upgraded. It started as 27c then 29c then 30c. Now it's 90f+! At this rate we're end up with a new all time UK allcomers record.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline Whether Idle  
#493 Posted : 22 August 2019 05:52:51(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Looking like a decent end to August, especially the all important opinion determining Bank Holiday Weekend.  The settled spell  should help lift the summer a few places in the indexes, and provide welcome relief for the rain afflicted parts of the UK.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline DEW  
#494 Posted : 22 August 2019 05:59:55(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

Every time I look the forecast temps have been upgraded. It started as 27c then 29c then 30c. Now it's 90f+! At this rate we're end up with a new all time UK allcomers record.

BBC weather suggesting that it could be record warmest BH Monday at 30C+

Synoptics suggest fine and warm for the whole week but with a breakdown and cooler weather over the w/end 31st-1st. Some caveats from the ensemble runs with a number dropping the temps earlier in the week, especially in Scotland. Some of the ens have showery activity in the south earlier in the week, too, a feature suggested also by Weather for the Week ahead

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline johncs2016  
#495 Posted : 22 August 2019 06:10:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

 

BBC weather suggesting that it could be record warmest BH Monday at 30C+

Synoptics suggest fine and warm for the whole week but with a breakdown and cooler weather over the w/end 31st-1st. Some caveats from the ensemble runs with a number dropping the temps earlier in the week, especially in Scotland. Some of the ens have showery activity in the south earlier in the week, too, a feature suggested also by Weather for the Week ahead

Because of that, I'm wondering whether or not, there will be a separate thread on this forum for specifically dealing the the late August Bank Holiday since there is that possibility of that being the hottest late August Bank Holiday on record in parts of SE England in particular, in the same way in which there was a separate thread for the hottest day on record during July.

 

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS

EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)

Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)

Altitude: 57m above mean sea level

EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)

Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)

Altitude: 33m above mean sea level

ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)

Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)

Altitude: 26m above mean sea level

Offline DEW  
#496 Posted : 22 August 2019 08:01:30(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post

 

Because of that, I'm wondering whether or not, there will be a separate thread on this forum for specifically dealing the the late August Bank Holiday since there is that possibility of that being the hottest late August Bank Holiday on record in parts of SE England in particular, in the same way in which there was a separate thread for the hottest day on record during July.

 

Up to members of the TWO community if they want to start one - but only one, please!

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Online Col  
#497 Posted : 22 August 2019 09:08:10(UTC)
Col

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Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

 

Up to members of the TWO community if they want to start one - but only one, please!

To me it's not really worthy of a seperate thread. Meteorologically speaking it's no more significant than any other date record, it's just one that happens to be a Bank Holiday. A general 'late August heatwave' thread would be fine.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Bertwhistle  
#498 Posted : 22 August 2019 17:04:22(UTC)
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12z GFS rolling out- stretches the heat to Thursday in the South. Come on GFS- Saturday would be great! 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Bertwhistle  
#499 Posted : 22 August 2019 17:05:37(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

To me it's not really worthy of a seperate thread. Meteorologically speaking it's no more significant than any other date record, it's just one that happens to be a Bank Holiday. A general 'late August heatwave' thread would be fine.

Agreed; start the thread, nothing happens, wonder why. More chance of engaging in that generally if part of MOD or other key thread.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline DEW  
#500 Posted : 23 August 2019 05:58:06(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

General agreement in the models that the warm/hot weather isn't going to last beyond Wed (29th) - ens runs then go back to temps a little below normal, GFS synoptics and MetO a bit more cheerful.

Different models show different breakdowns. GFS goes for a westerly moving in with LP north of Scotland and the usual NW/SE split; ECM toys with a thundery low over France, also being given as a possible outcome on Weather for the Week ahead last night and showing on the Fax charts.

ECM also shows the remnants of a tropical storm off the US coast next week, which goes on to interact with the N Atlantic circulation. Presumably this is the one now off Bermuda - not yet a storm but given 50% chance of development by NHC

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
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