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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#461 Posted : 17 August 2019 07:03:06(UTC)
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Heatwave potential has increased markedly this morning. GFS with the best outcome.

Online Gandalf The White  
#462 Posted : 17 August 2019 07:33:02(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

The 12z GFS Op is not that well supported after the first week; it's riding high again. It swings so emphatically from one run to the next that, although I've always treated it with caution and not in isolation from the members, I do wonder why it ever qualifies as the operational run, and I'd be interested to know if the Control is more accurate over a timeframe.

It’s the operational run because it’s the one with the unadjusted opening data and has the highest resolution.

As you imply the ensemble mean is as important but as you get more than a few days out you have to look at the clusters because the mean can conceal sharply different evolutions.

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Offline Bertwhistle  
#463 Posted : 17 August 2019 09:56:06(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

 

It’s the operational run because it’s the one with the unadjusted opening data and has the highest resolution.

As you imply the ensemble mean is as important but as you get more than a few days out you have to look at the clusters because the mean can conceal sharply different evolutions.

By members, I mean clustering, trends, deviation etc; not the mean- that at best only has a mathematical significance on its own. On the Control- does it not also have unadjusted opening data?

Edited by user 17 August 2019 09:58:22(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Polar Low  
#464 Posted : 17 August 2019 10:04:39(UTC)
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Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Hope that helps

 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

 

By members, I mean clustering, trends, deviation etc; not the mean- that at best only has a mathematical significance on its own. On the Control- does it not also have unadjusted opening data?

Online johncs2016  
#465 Posted : 17 August 2019 10:10:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Polar Low Go to Quoted Post

Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Hope that helps

 

 

Am I right in saying as well that whenever a new version of the GFS model comes out every year after possibly spending some time as the parallel run, it then takes over as the new operational run with the old operational run then becoming the control run?

That would probably make sense as each new version of any given model run will usually always be at a higher resolution than the previous one.

 

Located in the most boring part of the UK when it comes to our weather where hardly anything ever happens which is even remotely interesting in terms of our weather (other than yet more constant grey skies), and with the more interesting weather usually always occurring elsewhere in the UK apart from here.
Offline idj20  
#466 Posted : 17 August 2019 10:37:26(UTC)
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To my tired but experienced eyes, the UK still seem to somehow manage to find itself under any kind of trough-like set ups no matter what with the Continent and even the Atlantic hogging high pressure.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#467 Posted : 17 August 2019 12:14:48(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Polar Low Go to Quoted Post

Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Hope that helps

 

 

Thanks. I still wonder which one outperforms the other- one would think the higher res model, but I suppose that's not necessarily so. I think my original interest was that the Op seems to be at either edge of the range quite often, with big differences between runs as far as 10 or more days out. Since that time-frame is unreliable anyway, I wonder what subtle changes over a 6-hour period could be extrapolated enough to force it to undo itself between successive runs.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Offline TimS  
#468 Posted : 17 August 2019 18:10:34(UTC)
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The heatwave tendency continues to rise this evening. Starting next Thurs-Fri.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Gusty  
#469 Posted : 17 August 2019 19:36:39(UTC)
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A warm up looks plausible but I'm still not entirely convinced about a heatwave. The Operational was at the warmer end of the suite and an outlier for a couple of days. 

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Online Saint Snow  
#470 Posted : 17 August 2019 21:16:49(UTC)
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Dry and sunny would do me, don't care if it maxes at 70f 

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Offline DEW  
#471 Posted : 18 August 2019 06:40:21(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

A warm up looks plausible but I'm still not entirely convinced about a heatwave. The Operational was at the warmer end of the suite and an outlier for a couple of days. 

I'm with you on this. Certainly ens runs agree on it being pleasantly warm over the BH weekend. After that you can certainly pick runs which are warm or very warm, but the op, control and mean remain resolutely close to the seasonal average. But HP sticks around, close to the south especially, so no great amounts of rainfall.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Bertwhistle  
#472 Posted : 18 August 2019 08:48:40(UTC)
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ECM ENS offers another build up of warmth in its later stages, with 850> 10°C and the 564 dam line over C England.

Chart image

Chart image

Edited by user 18 August 2019 08:50:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Offline David M Porter  
#473 Posted : 18 August 2019 09:12:38(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Dry and sunny would do me, don't care if it maxes at 70f 

Same here!

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Offline idj20  
#474 Posted : 18 August 2019 18:24:10(UTC)
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GFS is having a bit of a turn with its 12z run . . .



This is at 192 hrs which puts it on BH Mon but is on its own with that thinking and is only one run, etc, etc.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 18 August 2019 18:27:39(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Weathermac  
#475 Posted : 18 August 2019 19:15:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

GFS is having a bit of a turn with its 12z run . . .



This is at 192 hrs which puts it on BH Mon but is on its own with that thinking and is only one run, etc, etc.

Thats a deep low for August widespread gales ....let’s hope GFS is having a laugh spoiling the BH.

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Offline doctormog  
#476 Posted : 18 August 2019 19:17:40(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weathermac Go to Quoted Post

 

Thats a deep low for August widespread gales ....let’s hope GFS is having a laugh spoiling the BH.

The other models which show a similiar feature all have it further north (and it is also an outlier in its own suite). Unlikely but worth watching all the same I guess.

Offline Downpour  
#477 Posted : 18 August 2019 19:41:58(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weathermac Go to Quoted Post

 

Thats a deep low for August widespread gales ....let’s hope GFS is having a laugh spoiling the BH.

 

can rain all it wants on the Monday - that’s going home day. B/H weekend looking pretty decent so far. 

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Offline DEW  
#478 Posted : 19 August 2019 08:18:31(UTC)
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Bit of inverse (perverse?) cherry picking by Ian there

Synoptics for the next week or so look mostly dry and warm, though HP always inclined to stand off to the west, and hence the possibility of northerlies flirting with the east coast from time to time. This http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 indicates that such northerlies will provide a sharp contrast in Europe (esp week 2) compared to the earlier heat wave.

Ensembles showing a warm BH and after that a considerable scramble - could go either way. But no indication of prolonged heavy rainfall though as usual the NW gets more than the SE

Edited by user 19 August 2019 09:48:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Brian Gaze  
#479 Posted : 19 August 2019 21:00:22(UTC)
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Online Saint Snow  
#480 Posted : 20 August 2019 09:16:29(UTC)
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Fasten those seatbelts, kids!!

 

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