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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 22,358
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Ensembles looking like a change is on the way for the second half of the month maybe? Very little rain signal in the latter part of the GFS down here. |
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,061  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Originally Posted by: Rob K  Ensembles looking like a change is on the way for the second half of the month maybe? Very little rain signal in the latter part of the GFS down here. Indeed, later on only just a few runs with rainfall but keep watching, those wet runs have large amounts. The synoptics also suggesting a warm BH weekend though ens yet to come on board for anything exceptional. In the meantime, the fax chart for Wednesday looks really wet for England and Wales (hope the Scottish border gets spared - they're having more than enough at the moment while it's still quite dry here) and the depression on Sunday next looks a certainty, though it's location varies between GFS (N of Scotland) and ECM (from NI into England) |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC)
Posts: 446
Location: London E4
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Originally Posted by: picturesareme I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range. Spot on. |
Chingford London E4 147ft |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 6,421  Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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GEFS seem to be spotting another heatwave in about 10 to 13 days time. It's very good at this with both the late June and July heat it started picking it up at about the same time out. Here's hoping.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,270 Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman GEFS seem to be spotting another heatwave in about 10 to 13 days time. It's very good at this with both the late June and July heat it started picking it up at about the same time out. Here's hoping. I only hope that if there is another heatwave, it lasts a bit longer and does not contain the awful humidity that the late July one did. |
"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".
Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,029
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Makes me wonder if we're heading for the September banker. At the moment it looks like more settled weather will return later this month and as we've seen in recent years September is often more akin to a continuation of the summer than the start of the autumn. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 70,963
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Originally Posted by: Downpour No, it is actually factually incorrect regardless of whether you agree or not. The outlook shown at the end of July was generally unsettled but warm. The unsettled weather was mostly for the northern half of the country but affecting all areas at times. Not my opinion and people can check if they wish. The current outlook shows things warming back up again after the cooler few days coming up. With a predominantly SWly or westerly flow in the midterm I would expect the regions that normally do well in such a setup to have some pretty decent weather at times but areas to the NW to be less fortunate. Up here tomorrow t850s are expected to be about 7°C below average and about 5°C below in the south, however how that translates to surface/t2m values is a different matter. Some sunshine and light winds or cloud and rain will outweigh that. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/04/2012(UTC) Posts: 1,746 Location: WEST HANTS
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Originally Posted by: David M Porter I only hope that if there is another heatwave, it lasts a bit longer and does not contain the awful humidity that the late July one did. I am afraid having a heatwave and pleasant low humidity in the U.K. is rather having your cake and eating it.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,270 Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow
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Originally Posted by: bledur I am afraid having a heatwave and pleasant low humidity in the U.K. is rather having your cake and eating it. We manged it last year. Even though the period from early/mid-May through to almost the end of July last year was very warm/hot, I recall little by way of really humid weather and certainly not in the same abundance as has been the case in the past few weeks.  |
"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".
Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2013(UTC) Posts: 15,099  Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl
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Originally Posted by: David M Porter I only hope that if there is another heatwave, it lasts a bit longer and does not contain the awful humidity that the late July one did. I found the humidity levels over the entirety of this summer to be particularly woeful. |
"There are nights when the wolves fall silent and only the moon howls" --George Carlin.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 70,963
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Again there are tentative signs of more settled conditions towards the final third of the month on the 12z output so far (GFS/GEM) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,342 Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border
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I’m keeping an eye on Wednesday, surely a good chance of more gales never mind the copious rainfall for some areas. Something to watch IMO. |
Jason in The Vale of Belvoir Near the Leics/ Notts Border 495 Feet Above Sea Level
Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer" Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special" December 2015- "Floodfest Horror" 2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"
The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,061 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Much the same outlook as yesterday. LP dominating this week, with centres near UK on Wed (England), Sun (off N Sctland, GFS; further S and deeper, ECM). ECM also brings up a further LP from the west next week. GFS 0z suggests a pulse of warm air and HP for the end of the BH weekend, but the ensembles are literally lukewarm on this. |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2016(UTC) Posts: 154 Location: Gloucestershire
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There are hints of High pressure in the models, especially for Bank Holiday, I know a bit far out. Also on some models the N. Blocking easing off.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,061 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Originally Posted by: severnside There are hints of High pressure in the models, especially for Bank Holiday, I know a bit far out. Also on some models the N. Blocking easing off. Agreed. The disturbed weather continuing for a week or so, but with next weekend's depression arriving a bit sooner (i.e. Friday) that was originally forecast. For the BH weekend, distinctly warmer though only a few runs go as far as hot; and drier, especially in the south. ECM has something of a thundery low over France just before that (T+240) which needs watching |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,029
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Signs of drier weather later this month and still some very warm runs appearing. Before then it's a mixed picture. PS: I changed the scripts yesterday so the GFS op is plotted at 6 rather than 12 hour intervals. Doesn't make a a lot of difference but the charts look a little smoother. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 838
Location: Lowestoft
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Signs of drier weather later this month and still some very warm runs appearing. Before then it's a mixed picture. PS: I changed the scripts yesterday so the GFS op is plotted at 6 rather than 12 hour intervals. Doesn't make a a lot of difference but the charts look a little smoother.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 865 Location: St Albans
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I'm pleased to see that, despite the unseasonable weather, at least the snow row count is still zero! |
Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 22,358
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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6Z GFS op run gets increasingly warm/hot in the south towards the end, although not a huge amount of support from the GEFS. |
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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