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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 72,035
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Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123  You’re just being pedantic. I stated pretty clearly that Friday will be nice once the early rain has moved away. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,752  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about. |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,404 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: DEW  Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about. I thought that too when I looked at this morning's GFS Op and then scrolled through the ensembles. Am I imagiing it or does it look like the most southerly dipping loop of the jet is shifting east a little, with lows a few 100km further N and perhaps a little less frequent in the outlook? |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,550  Location: North East Hampshire
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A lot of turd polishing going on in this thread. For a summer month, with kids on holiday, the outlook is poor for most for the foreseeable.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,552  Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow
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Originally Posted by: John p  A lot of turd polishing going on in this thread. For a summer month, with kids on holiday, the outlook is poor for most for the foreseeable. Agreed. In Scotland, the kids will return to school late next week, but there doesn't look to be any improvement in the weather in the offing from the models for after they return, which has sometimes happened in the past. I guess that it was probably a bit much to expect this summer to be as generally good as that of last year, even allowing for the poorer August last year. However this summer has never got close to last year, even with the all-time highest temperature record being beaten a couple of weeks ago. |
"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".
Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,404 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: John p  A lot of turd polishing going on in this thread. For a summer month, with kids on holiday, the outlook is poor for most for the foreseeable. And of course the foreseeable is not really that long. We'll be out and about with the children; they're not interested if it's 20 or 30 degrees. In the South, the outlook has plenty of windows of dry weather in the models. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 290
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All time record wasn’t beaten I don’t believe...? The summer has been very pleasant this year so far, it started early (We don’t measure summer be school holidays) which is always welcome. A period of low pressure and unsettled weather is not ideal, but we’re better getting some rain than none for weeks on end. The forecast is not looking that bad at all for the weekend in middle England/east anglia compared to what we had been lead to expect. |
Langford, Bedfordshire |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,550  Location: North East Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: beanoir  All time record wasn’t beaten I don’t believe...?
The summer has been very pleasant this year so far, it started early (We don’t measure summer be school holidays) which is always welcome. A period of low pressure and unsettled weather is not ideal, but we’re better getting some rain than none for weeks on end.
The forecast is not looking that bad at all for the weekend in middle England/east anglia compared to what we had been lead to expect.
Not looking bad, apart from the gales throughout Saturday in England.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 928   Location: St Albans
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It's looking like high pressure won't be too far from the south of England from midweek next week so it's not looking too bad down here. Much more unsettled further north though. |
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC) Posts: 23,145 Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: beanoir  All time record wasn’t beaten I don’t believe...?
Not in Scotland, but I assume David was talking about the UK record. In the south, a wet week to come next week but then possibly signs of drying out a bit in the third week of August? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I'm off work for two weeks from the 19th so let's hope so  Edited by user 09 August 2019 10:11:09(UTC)
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Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 6,959   Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh
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Originally Posted by: Rob K  Not in Scotland, but I assume David was talking about the UK record. In the south, a wet week to come next week but then possibly signs of drying out a bit in the third week of August? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I'm off work for two weeks from the 19th so let's hope so  Looking back, I agree that David was probably talking about the UK record here. It is also true there were no records broken as far as Scotland as a whole is concerned. However, that doesn't mean that no local records were broken within Scotland itself and indeed, that did happen here in Edinburgh where we had our own all time highest ever temperature of 31.6°C which was recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank on that day. However, that all seems like a distant memory now when you consider just how wet and miserable it has now become in this part of the world. Meanwhile and and back on topic, the outlook isn't looking all that much better as far as I can see, at least as far as the short term model output is concerned. The last time that I checked, there were a few glimmers of hope that we could see a bit of an improvement towards the end of the month, but that is only in the very unreliable time frame. |
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC) Posts: 586 Location: London E4
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Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123  You’re just being pedantic. I stated pretty clearly that Friday will be nice once the early rain has moved away. correct. In fact it hasn’t rained one drop here east of the meridian. It’s been very warm and unless this next system swerves 20 miles east I’ll be watering the garden yet again when I return from my very warm mountain bike ride in Epping Forest. |
Chingford London E4 147ft |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC) Posts: 586 Location: London E4
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Originally Posted by: John p  Not looking bad, apart from the gales throughout Saturday in England. if I’d listened to the usual doom mongerors on TWO, I’d have been huddled in my woolly jumper all week. As it is, most days have been fine, warm even. Next week looks usable. All in all a decent summer regardless of the hyperbole. |
Chingford London E4 147ft |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC) Posts: 586 Location: London E4
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And just as I write that the sun comes back out as the latest system tracks west - again. The only people who love this weather are the bonus-hungry c-suite at Thames Water. |
Chingford London E4 147ft |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,752  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Current depression is 985mb - and now the prospect of two separate 980mb LP, on Sun 18th and Thu 22nd (GFS 0z), cntred over the Highlands and the Hebrides respectively. For the determined optimists, the weather in the south isn't too bad in between these episodes (though Fax shows a quickly-clearing front this Wed) ECM has a flabbier depression further S on the 18th Edited by user 10 August 2019 06:51:32(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,404 Location: Central Southern England
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Some positive signals growingfor the BH weekend & ergo last week of month. Here's the GFS ENS mean max T forecast: 
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Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC) Posts: 5,567 Location: costa solent
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Originally Posted by: DEW  Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about. I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,230  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  Some positive signals growingfor the BH weekend & ergo last week of month. Here's the GFS ENS mean max T forecast: 
Triffic. Temps in the 60s for the majority of the country. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,957  Location: West Hants
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Originally Posted by: picturesareme  I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range. It doesn't help that FV3 has a widespread cool bias of 1-3*C (varies with location). Mad thing is, this was acknowledged by NOAA on its release, having been reduced but not eradicated (it used to be even more extreme in it's 'parallel' (pre-operational) form, which we saw lead to some very teasing output last winter!). This is such a pain given that the majority of weather apps, for example, use FV3 data. p.s. FV3 is what I now call GFS, since it had its core replaced with that of the FV3 model (its successor). |
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Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,752  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Originally Posted by: picturesareme  I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range. I remember posting one of the charts you refer to but that post was drawing attention to the really cold pool over Russia which is only now beginning to disperse, not conditions in the UK? |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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