Originally Posted by: DEW

Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about.

I thought that too when I looked at this morning's GFS Op and then scrolled through the ensembles. Am I imagiing it or does it look like the most southerly dipping loop of the jet is shifting east a little, with lows a few 100km further N and perhaps a little less frequent in the outlook?

Originally Posted by: John p

A lot of turd polishing going on in this thread.
For a summer month, with kids on holiday, the outlook is poor for most for the foreseeable.

Agreed.

In Scotland, the kids will return to school late next week, but there doesn't look to be any improvement in the weather in the offing from the models for after they return, which has sometimes happened in the past.

I guess that it was probably a bit much to expect this summer to be as generally good as that of last year, even allowing for the poorer August last year. However this summer has never got close to last year, even with the all-time highest temperature record being beaten a couple of weeks ago.

The summer has been very pleasant this year so far, it started early (We don’t measure summer be school holidays) which is always welcome. A period of low pressure and unsettled weather is not ideal, but we’re better getting some rain than none for weeks on end.

The forecast is not looking that bad at all for the weekend in middle England/east anglia compared to what we had been lead to expect.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

 

Not in Scotland, but I assume David was talking about the UK record.

In the south, a wet week to come next week but then possibly signs of drying out a bit in the third week of August? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I'm off work for two weeks from the 19th so let's hope so 

Looking back, I agree that David was probably talking about the UK record here. It is also true there were no records broken as far as Scotland as a whole is concerned. However, that doesn't mean that no local records were broken within Scotland itself and indeed, that did happen here in Edinburgh where we had our own all time highest ever temperature of 31.6°C which was recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank on that day.

However, that all seems like a distant memory now when you consider just how wet and miserable it has now become in this part of the world. Meanwhile and and back on topic, the outlook isn't looking all that much better as far as I can see, at least as far as the short term model output is concerned. The last time that I checked, there were a few glimmers of hope that we could see a bit of an improvement towards the end of the month, but that is only in the very unreliable time frame.

Originally Posted by: John p

 

Not looking bad, apart from the gales throughout Saturday in England.

if I’d listened to the usual doom mongerors on TWO, I’d have been huddled in my woolly jumper all week. As it is, most days have been fine, warm even. Next week looks usable. All in all a decent summer regardless of the hyperbole.

Current depression is 985mb - and now the prospect of two separate 980mb LP, on Sun 18th and Thu 22nd (GFS 0z), cntred over the Highlands and the Hebrides respectively. For the determined optimists, the weather in the south isn't too bad in between these episodes (though Fax shows a quickly-clearing front this Wed)

ECM has a flabbier depression further S on the 18th

Edited by user 10 August 2019 06:51:32(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: DEW

Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about.

I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range.

It doesn't help that FV3 has a widespread cool bias of 1-3*C (varies with location). Mad thing is, this was acknowledged by NOAA on its release, having been reduced but not eradicated (it used to be even more extreme in it's 'parallel' (pre-operational) form, which we saw lead to some very teasing output last winter!).

This is such a pain given that the majority of weather apps, for example, use FV3 data.

p.s. FV3 is what I now call GFS, since it had its core replaced with that of the FV3 model (its successor).