When Gavin P. released his summer forecast for this year, he predicted that this summer would get better over time with potentially, our best August since 2003. Up until now, I would say that this is quite a fair assessment of how this summer has gone so far.
However, he also issued a caveat with this that there is always the chance that there could be a flip to La Nina in the ENSO region and if that happens, this could result in a deterioration of the overall weather pattern in this part of the world during the latter part of this summer.
The SSTs in the eastern half of the ENSO region have been getting a bit colder just recently which would seem to signal a switch to La Nina despite the fact that the SOI has been consistently negative recently and therefore, more supportive of El Nino. Furthermore, the latest model output has been increasing pointing towards a developing La Nino.
As regards to the weather in this part of the world, I am therefore wondering whether or not, this is something which the short and medium term models are now picking up on when they are going for a much cooler and more unsettled end to this month and start to August as they appear to be doing at the moment.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.