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Offline Whether Idle  
#701 Posted : 12 October 2019 17:40:43(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

12z GEFS control run goes for a last hurrah plume in its latter stages.  Wouldn't surprise me if this came to pass.

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With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline DEW  
#702 Posted : 13 October 2019 07:54:03(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

 GFS has now come out quite bullish about HP being established over the UK from about the 22nd onwards. It's a fairly small HP cell, so its position is critical, and it wanders around a bit, first giving warm SEly (see previous post) and later cool NWly. GEFS ens show (mostly) a general uptick in temps for that period, along with a general decrease in rainfall, though you can find occasional local examples with exceptions to rainfall totals.

for ECM, this is the very end of its run, and it's less positive with HP flatlining to the south of the UK

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline DEW  
#703 Posted : 14 October 2019 06:13:06(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

As yesterday but ECM now agreeing on HP. But both main models show LP approaching closer to the west around 23rd before backing off. Good news -stronger southerly winds and warmer; bad news - fronts likely to be brushing the west coast, indicated by GEFS rainfall runs for west coast locations.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Online doctormog  
#704 Posted : 14 October 2019 06:18:15(UTC)
doctormog

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The ECM 00z is only out to 96hr at time of writing and is low pressure dominated so far? https://www.wetterzentra.../maps/ECMOPEU00_96_1.png
Offline DEW  
#705 Posted : 14 October 2019 06:22:33(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
The ECM 00z is only out to 96hr at time of writing and is low pressure dominated so far? https://www.wetterzentra.../maps/ECMOPEU00_96_1.png

Comment based on ECM 12z - with commitments of care 24/7 I don;t have time to check all possible models so you will continue to get whatever's the latest on the TWO chart viewer

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Online doctormog  
#706 Posted : 14 October 2019 06:29:19(UTC)
doctormog

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I was simply pointing out what this morning’s ECM op run shows so far and will continue to do so when it clarifies the overall picture.

By day 6 things are still completely dominated by low pressure across the U.K. https://www.wetterzentra...maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

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