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Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#961 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:39:01(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,529
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

 

12z looking blocked indeed 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.

Mark

Stratford, London

Offline Gooner  
#962 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:47:33(UTC)
Gooner

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
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Man

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.

Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Online LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#963 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:50:47(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,958
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.  

Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative.

Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather.

North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc.

Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline idj20  
#964 Posted : 07 November 2019 17:18:17(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.



Just a break in the wet weather would do us just fine and the past couple of runs offers a glimmer of hope. After all it is only November and some of us in the UK probably have had double the November average rainfall and this is just the first week of the month! 

Offline JACKO4EVER  
#965 Posted : 07 November 2019 18:21:24(UTC)
JACKO4EVER

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Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

 

Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 

 

Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 

whats that Marcus, tears over Arsenal blow your keyboard? 🤣

some hints in FI again of northern blocking, interesting output for sure 

Jason in The Vale of Belvoir

Near the Leics/ Notts Border

495 Feet Above Sea Level

Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer"

Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special"

December 2015- "Floodfest Horror"

2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"

The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery

Offline Russwirral  
#966 Posted : 07 November 2019 18:31:51(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum

Offline Shropshire  
#967 Posted : 07 November 2019 18:45:00(UTC)
Shropshire

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Location: Staffordshire

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum

All too early for anything decent unfortunately.

 

'Money fills their pockets, but fear fills their tiny minds'
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#968 Posted : 07 November 2019 18:49:58(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,529
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Another dip and extension of the cold on the 850s

Here are the ensembles. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Gustys reverse psychology could be doing the trick 😉

Mark

Stratford, London

Online ballamar  
#969 Posted : 07 November 2019 18:53:28(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

Originally Posted by: Shropshire Go to Quoted Post

 

All too early for anything decent unfortunately.

 

no it isn’t - if the pattern persists will go cold

Offline Bertwhistle  
#970 Posted : 07 November 2019 19:09:54(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,769
Location: Central Southern England

Check out the GFS 850 ensembles: warm Moscow, snowy Inverness.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online Brian Gaze  
#971 Posted : 07 November 2019 19:12:04(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

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Posts: 46,728

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Online Gusty  
#972 Posted : 07 November 2019 21:00:40(UTC)
Gusty

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Location: Folkestone

For the first half of November this is a fairly notable run of sub 10c maxes for London ! Signs of something less cool later on hopefully. Again it's deep in FI and cannot be taken too seriously yet. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Online Brian Gaze  
#973 Posted : 07 November 2019 21:13:50(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 46,728

GFS was upgraded today.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline Saint Snow  
#974 Posted : 07 November 2019 21:16:56(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

GFS was upgraded today.

 

The phrase "everything is relative" comes to mind.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline White Meadows  
#975 Posted : 07 November 2019 22:50:02(UTC)
White Meadows

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,990
Location: West Sussex

Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.

Recent output continues to be interesting with tonight’s pub run repeating a trend for the jet diving very far south with possible north/ north easterly airflow over the UK next week & beyond 🥶

Offline RobN  
#976 Posted : 07 November 2019 23:05:16(UTC)
RobN

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,562
United Kingdom
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: White Meadows Go to Quoted Post
Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.

I think it's already arrived

Rob

Sometimes a few miles north of Cambridge on a hill in the flatlands of East Anglia 15m ASL

Other times in south east Gloucestershire near the River Thames 75m ASL.

Offline Argyle77  
#977 Posted : 08 November 2019 01:22:54(UTC)
Argyle77

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Joined: 21/02/2018(UTC)
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United Kingdom
Location: Lancing SE Coast

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

Edited by user 08 November 2019 01:24:04(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline White Meadows  
#978 Posted : 08 November 2019 06:37:56(UTC)
White Meadows

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,990
Location: West Sussex

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 Go to Quoted Post

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

i think it was 2016-17 which was expected to deliver the goods with blocking as we approached winter, coupled with a promising met office extended outlook. Still, the hair dryer got stuck in the on position and we ended up milder than average again.

2009 and 2010 were excellent winters here, the best in recent times. 

Offline Shropshire  
#979 Posted : 08 November 2019 06:43:57(UTC)
Shropshire

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,737
Man
Location: Staffordshire

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 Go to Quoted Post

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

Yep and everything is pointing to a zonal December. As you say 2010 didn't begin until the end of the month.

 

'Money fills their pockets, but fear fills their tiny minds'
Online Brian Gaze  
#980 Posted : 08 November 2019 07:22:13(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 46,728

I'll start a new thread at 7:30am. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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