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Offline Quantum  
#61 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:21:05(UTC)
Quantum

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Looked at all the ECM ensembles. None are as high as the 37.7C predicted by the operational but that seems to be more of a resolution thing.

 

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Offline The Beast from the East  
#62 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:28:06(UTC)
The Beast from the East

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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
Remarkably quiet in here considering we could see national records and possibly even a U.K. July record next week.

we are all bracing ourselves for hurricane Boris. We used to have a member called Brogdale, Jonny from Wallington down the road from me. Don’t know why he left 

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Offline TimS  
#63 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:32:37(UTC)
TimS

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Location: Brockley

I suspect the indoor temperature thread may be restarting soon. Some unusually high night minima coming up in the models, in fact I think I saw a 25C min earlier.

I’ve opened all windows I can tonight to give us one last chill tonight, aiming to get from the current 22.5C indoors to 21C before the heat starts mounting. Then closed shutters and blinds all day.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Quantum  
#64 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:35:36(UTC)
Quantum

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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
I suspect the indoor temperature thread may be restarting soon. Some unusually high night minima coming up in the models, in fact I think I saw a 25C min earlier.

I’ve opened all windows I can tonight to give us one last chill tonight, aiming to get from the current 22.5C indoors to 21C before the heat starts mounting. Then closed shutters and blinds all day.

Yeh the maximin all time record has a good chance of falling. We need 24.0C for the all time record.

 

Although I'm always confused by how the maximin works. Does the temp have to stay above the threashold for the entire 24 hours or just the nightime period?

 

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Online Brian Gaze  
#65 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:37:27(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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ICOn 18z up to 37C.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Quantum  
#66 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:41:31(UTC)
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Could we see 40C? I think its in the realms of possibility though not likely for sure. Does anyone know if the soil moisture is below average for the time of year? Also cloud coverage has got to be close to zero to have any chance of getting the temps that high. There is alot of CAPE around though. Goes without saying any thunderstorms that develop before about 5pm will scupper the chances of a record.

 

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Offline Polar Low  
#67 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:51:28(UTC)
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Soil Temps run on WOL GFS 12z HD 35C @ 20.00 madness 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&amp;MENU=0000000000&amp;CONT=ukuk&amp;MODELL=gfs&amp;MODELLTYP=1&amp;BASE=-&amp;VAR=t1dm&amp;HH=18&amp;ZOOM=0&amp;ARCHIV=0&amp;RES=0&amp;WMO=&amp;PERIOD=

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

Could we see 40C? I think its in the realms of possibility though not likely for sure. Does anyone know if the soil moisture is below average for the time of year? Also cloud coverage has got to be close to zero to have any chance of getting the temps that high. There is alot of CAPE around though. Goes without saying any thunderstorms that develop before about 5pm will scupper the chances of a record.

 

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Offline Quantum  
#68 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:53:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

ICOn 18z up to 37C.

 

Tiny spot of 38C just NE of Canterbury!

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/deu-hd/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/temperature/20190725-1500z.html

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Offline Polar Low  
#69 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:55:01(UTC)
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Looking through the ECM individual ensemble members for Thursday, it's the tale of the hot, very hot and hotter still - at least 80% of members are likely to produce 36C or more, with the middle ground perhaps a 37C or 38C.

Offline TimS  
#70 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:58:30(UTC)
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GFS 18z several degrees cooler than 12z on Thurs. not sure why - slightly lower 850s but not much. Similarly cloudy both runs.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online Brian Gaze  
#71 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:04:39(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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GFS 18z going for 37C on Thursday. Add a couple of C on and 40C isn't entirely off piste.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Quantum  
#72 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:08:11(UTC)
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Looking at the June heatwave thread

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20097&p=18

Seems most of the models went for maxes around 32C-33C underestimating the final temp by 1-2C. There were quite a few models that overestimated though with AROME ensembles going as high as 39C. Definitely a much bigger spread for that June heatwave too.

Taking the 37C ball park figure the models seem to be going for now seems to suggest we could end up in the 38-39C range.

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Offline Polar Low  
#73 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:08:11(UTC)
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cant help thinking we are at high water tonight

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

GFS 18z going for 37C on Thursday. Add a couple of C on and 40C isn't entirely off piste.

Offline tallyho_83  
#74 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:08:39(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 

Yeh but its completely normal for that to happen (although it turns out it is going to be a big melt season over the arctic). Without the ice you'd expect temps to be much warmer over the arctic. But the ice requires a huge amount of energy to melt so while the melting is in situ the temperature can't get much above freezing because all the heat is going into melting the ice, there is none left to heat up the air. That's why in the summer over the arctic there is basically no temperature variation at all.

I did wonder why - as running the 2m temp model in the sequence it always stays at or just above freezing during the day and to freezing by night! Thanks for explaining that! - I didn't know it was actually that mild 0 to +3c over the top of the N. Pole. I wonder if persistent daylight could be a factor too? - It is mid summer anyway.  

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Offline Quantum  
#75 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:15:44(UTC)
Quantum

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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

I did wonder why - as running the 2m temp model in the sequence it always stays at or just above freezing during the day and to freezing by night! Thanks for explaining that! - I didn't know it was actually that mild 0 to +3c over the top of the N. Pole. I wonder if persistent daylight could be a factor too? - It is mid summer anyway.  

Indeed, minimal diurnal variation as the sun's angle doesn't change that much during the day the further north you get. Because the ice sucks away all the heat regardless of the airmass you can't actually use 2m temps to predict how 'good' the weather conditions are for the ice. Most meterologists use 950hpa temps, close enough to the ice to be a good indicator of what the ice experiences in terms of weather but high enough up that all the data isn't just turned into latent heat noise.

 

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Offline tallyho_83  
#76 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:18:40(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Upgrade: BBC forecast for Paris now shows temps could hit +43c on Thursday:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507

Yesterday it was going for 39c on Thursday this morning went of 40c and now the forecast shows Paris is expecting +43c on Thursday! I think low 40's could be possible so records to be broken!? - Read this carefully?

I love Paris In 

In the Summer Time

 

Did you read all the words!?

Absolutely shockingly hot!! When you think temps in the low 30's is plenty hot enough this must feel really uncomfortable!!

 

Edited by user 22 July 2019 00:35:37(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

------------------------------------------------------------

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Offline Quantum  
#77 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:20:24(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 14,702

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

Upgrade: BBC forecast for Paris now shows temps could hit +43c on Thursday:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507

Yesterday it was going for 39c on Thursday this morning went of 40c and now the forecast shows Paris is expecting +43c on Thursday! I think low 40's could be possible so records to be broken!?

I love Paris In 

In the Summer Time

Absolutely shockingly hot!! When you think temps in the low 30's is plenty hot enough this must feel really uncomfortable!!

 

Smashes the Paris record of 40.1C

 

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Offline Polar Low  
#78 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:20:45(UTC)
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Madness chart from Icon looked at that depth of heat to the s/e

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Offline Quantum  
#79 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:27:52(UTC)
Quantum

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Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
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The record high temperatures for Northern France weatherstations. Basically all of the ones in the NE part of the map will fall on Thursday.

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Offline Quantum  
#80 Posted : 21 July 2019 22:37:20(UTC)
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Have to laugh while looking through these ensemble charts. If you are unlucky enough to live in Shetland this is what you have to look forward to.

Does the temperature ever stop being 13C?!

 

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