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Online Quantum  
#41 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:23:41(UTC)
Quantum

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Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 15,565

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

Thursday mid Afternoon - Gosh ! Love the Northern Hemisphere view:

Look at the heat so localised over Northern France and Belgium? Paris and Brussels Could reach +40c - Maybe breaking some records there or a deja-vu of the heat this time last month!?

Also anyone explain to me why Mainland Greenland remains below freezing and the North Pole/Arctic is above freezing?

 

 

Its completely normal for that to happen at this time of year. The arctic is a thin 1-3m sheet of ice rubble with bits of open water between the blocks of ice. Compare that with thousands of metres of thick undisturbed land ice on Greenland. Does a much better job of reflecting the solar radiation and what's left of the radiation can only really evaporate a bit of the ice on the surface. The arctic at this time of year, by contrast, is melting in situ which basically means the whole thing is just stuck at 0C or slightly over a few metres above the ice. If it were to melt out you could easily see 5-10C at the north pole in summer.

 

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Offline Tim A  
#42 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:26:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Im excited. 2003 stay with me in so many ways.

I remember MVH posting that it was still on late on the Saturday. Then I caught a BBC forecast and they had 37C.

It was made so exciting because we thought the Wednesday had been the chance and it had gone.

 

 

I remember you could bet at 4/1 online for the UK record to be broken minutes before when Heathrow was at 37.0c. Easy money.  Doubt the bookies are so careless these days. 

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

Online Quantum  
#43 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:35:38(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 15,565

Originally Posted by: Tim A Go to Quoted Post

 

I remember you could bet at 4/1 online for the UK record to be broken minutes before when Heathrow was at 37.0c. Easy money.  Doubt the bookies are so careless these days. 

Where can you bet on the weather?

 

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Offline Col  
#44 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:37:59(UTC)
Col

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Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 

Where can you bet on the weather?

 

Ask *****Corbyn....

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

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Offline Bertwhistle  
#45 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:38:03(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 

Where can you bet on the weather?

 

I understand the bookies do a white Christmas odds each year; one did a 100F odds in 1990. That seemed to pass away.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Tim A  
#46 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:38:52(UTC)
Tim A

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Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 

Where can you bet on the weather?

 

They used to be under special bets on William Hill/Ladbrokes etc.  Only the odd one such as all time record or 100F going. Haven't looked recently so not sure if they are still there. 

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

Offline Bertwhistle  
#47 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:39:06(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Beeb forecast suggesting a 35C London for Thursday.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online Quantum  
#48 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:47:14(UTC)
Quantum

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WRF 0.1 going for 37C on Thursday. Think we may still fall short of the 38.5C but definitely expecting to beat the 36.7C needed for an all time july record.

 

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Offline tallyho_83  
#49 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:49:29(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

Thursday mid Afternoon - Gosh ! Love the Northern Hemisphere view:

Look at the heat so localised over Northern France and Belgium? Paris and Brussels are in the firing line for this heatwave! Paris could reach +41 maybe +42c on Thursday- Maybe breaking some records there or a deja-vu of the heat this time last month!?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507

EXCITING STUFF!!

Also anyone explain to me why Mainland Greenland remains below freezing and the North Pole/Arctic is above freezing/milder?

 

BBC goes for 42c for Paris on Thursday. Phew!!

Tours in central France could hit & exceed +40c for 3 consecutive days!??

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Online Heavy Weather 2013  
#50 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:52:54(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

WRF 0.1 going for 37C on Thursday. Think we may still fall short of the 38.5C but definitely expecting to beat the 36.7C needed for an all time july record.

 

Thursday has really become the day. Let’s hope that it doesn’t lose the momentum. It’s going to be a push to break the all time record. But we deserve at least a July record

Mark

Stratford, London

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#51 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:55:38(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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United Kingdom
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Thursday has really become the day. Let’s hope that it doesn’t lose the momentum. It’s going to be a push to break the all time record. But we deserve at least a July record

 

Latest ECM has 38c Gravesend area.  No weather station there anymore though Doh!

Offline tallyho_83  
#52 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:56:14(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,483
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 

Its completely normal for that to happen at this time of year. The arctic is a thin 1-3m sheet of ice rubble with bits of open water between the blocks of ice. Compare that with thousands of metres of thick undisturbed land ice on Greenland. Does a much better job of reflecting the solar radiation and what's left of the radiation can only really evaporate a bit of the ice on the surface. The arctic at this time of year, by contrast, is melting in situ which basically means the whole thing is just stuck at 0C or slightly over a few metres above the ice. If it were to melt out you could easily see 5-10C at the north pole in summer.

 

 

Thanks interesting! Temps well down below freezing some places as low as -15c by night in Greenland - or most of Mainland Greenland yet over Arctic/North Pole it remains above freezing both by day and night!? - With little or no temperature change!?

Looks like it will be a really BIG melt season over the Arctic. 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 21 July 2019 18:58:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline picturesareme  
#53 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:56:30(UTC)
picturesareme

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Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 4,695
Location: pompey

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

Thursday mid Afternoon - Gosh ! Love the Northern Hemisphere view:

Look at the heat so localised over Northern France and Belgium? Paris and Brussels are in the firing line for this heatwave! Paris could reach +41 maybe +42c on Thursday- Maybe breaking some records there or a deja-vu of the heat this time last month!?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507

EXCITING STUFF!!

Also anyone explain to me why Mainland Greenland remains below freezing and the North Pole/Arctic is above freezing/milder?

 

I would have thought it quite obvious... North pole is sea, Greenland is a large land mass with altitude and glaciation.  

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline picturesareme  
#54 Posted : 21 July 2019 18:59:08(UTC)
picturesareme

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 4,695
Location: pompey

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Thanks interesting! Temps well down below freezing some places as low as -15c by night in Greenland - or most of Mainland Greenland yet over Arctic/North Pole it remains above freezing both by day and night!?

Looks like it will be a really BIG melt season over the Arctic. 

Because the blue area is highland with heights above 3000m 

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Offline Rob K  
#55 Posted : 21 July 2019 19:19:32(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,978
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 

Where can you bet on the weather?

 

Betfair has a top summer temperature market. It’s done in degrees F though. Last I looked there wasn’t much liquidity.  Best offer was about 5/1 for 100F but a huge spread between bid and ask. I put in a request at 16/1 but didn’t get matched. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Online Quantum  
#56 Posted : 21 July 2019 19:31:47(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 15,565

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Thanks interesting! Temps well down below freezing some places as low as -15c by night in Greenland - or most of Mainland Greenland yet over Arctic/North Pole it remains above freezing both by day and night!? - With little or no temperature change!?

Looks like it will be a really BIG melt season over the Arctic. 

 

Yeh but its completely normal for that to happen (although it turns out it is going to be a big melt season over the arctic). Without the ice you'd expect temps to be much warmer over the arctic. But the ice requires a huge amount of energy to melt so while the melting is in situ the temperature can't get much above freezing because all the heat is going into melting the ice, there is none left to heat up the air. That's why in the summer over the arctic there is basically no temperature variation at all.

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Offline Stormchaser  
#57 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:04:16(UTC)
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Location: West Hants

Fun fact: Greenland's landmass is actually a ring of mountainous islands around a central lake. Due to the foehn effect, if all the ice melted, that lake would be an oddly balmy place for so far north, and the shores would get some really warm days.

 

Anyway... back on topic - ECM has 38*C in the Gravesend area, UKV has 38*C in Kent, and WRF has 37*C in a similar location to ECM.

The flow has to stay pretty much has currently modelled for such high numbers though. There's a little wiggle room away from SSE to S, but SSW would mean a little maritime influence lowering the max slightly. In the other direction there may be almost no wiggle room, as a SE flow would cross more of the North Sea and be from not quite the hottest part of France.

So I'm cautious about the all-time record potential, especially with today's trend to stretch further southward the trough that the low swings into; that low might also adjust south, potentially turning the flow across the SE to the, er, SE.


Another more obvious risk is if the low was to move a bit faster - such as the UKMO 12z shows.


...but what if it moved slower? That's a tricky one as it's not clear exactly which direction the flow would be. The low acts to turn the flow back to continental after the shallow low crossing Tue night has briefly turned it to a maritime one across central and western England (and Wales) while stalling it across eastern parts (winds become light and variable but - crucially - the maritime air stays away).


Still too many variables here to feel confident about the peak UK temp beyond a broad estimate of 33-40*C (which covers both extremes of possible outcome IMO).

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Online Quantum  
#58 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:12:59(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 15,565

Highest temperature this week

 

NAVGEM12Z: 36C

ICON12Z: 36C

GFS12Z: 36C

ARPEGE: 36C

GEM12Z: 37C

ECM12Z: 37C

WRF0.1: 37C

 

Seems very consistent to me. And models tend to have maxima slightly shy of the actual maxima. So July record is almost certainly going to fall and the 38.5C needed to take the UK record could also go.

 

 

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Online Brian Gaze  
#59 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:17:51(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 46,703

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

Highest temperature this week

 

NAVGEM12Z: 36C

ICON12Z: 36C

GFS12Z: 36C

ARPEGE: 36C

GEM12Z: 37C

ECM12Z: 37C

WRF0.1: 37C

 

Seems very consistent to me. And models tend to have maxima slightly shy of the actual maxima. So July record is almost certainly going to fall and the 38.5C needed to take the UK record could also go.

 

 

GEM has 38C.

Arpege's mean max is 36C but its max could be a degree or so higher.

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online Quantum  
#60 Posted : 21 July 2019 21:20:04(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 15,565

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

GEM has 38C.

 

Arpege's mean max is 36C but its max could be a degree or so higher.

 

Your chart viewer is better than meteociel's!

 

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