The Beast from the East
16 September 2019 07:17:23

Humberto looks harmless though hopefully will give us an injection of tropical air later to keep our Indian summer going


The next system as you say looks dangerous 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 September 2019 16:23:02

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/171447.shtml?


New Tropical storm heading towards Caribbean


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
picturesareme
17 September 2019 18:07:47
Oh wow that happened fast growing for 😮😮 T.S Imelda
The Beast from the East
17 September 2019 23:36:37

Imelda beats TS 10, so now that will have a male name, 


In recent years, female named storms have done the most damage, just like in real life


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 September 2019 05:46:36

Imelda not long for this world, just a quick dumping of quitr a lot of rain on Texas. 


'Ten. pretty certain to become TS Jerry and then a hurricane grazing the Leeward Islands. Uncomfortably close to Bahama, though track at this stage is uncertain it should pass to the north.


Bermuda not out of trouble yet. Although the track is increasingly certain to pass to the north, Humberto has strengthened and Bermuda will see damaging winds


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
18 September 2019 13:15:39

Jerry is born, though not expected to be major


Humberto not the first storm this season to exceed forecast expectations so perhaps Jerry may end up stronger as well


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 September 2019 06:16:22

Imelda and 'quite a lot of rain' translates to 20+ inches in some areas. It may move eastwards to affect Houston.


Hunberto zipping across the Atlantic, the moisture it's brought will be with us early next week


Jerry's track probably recurving to Bermuda and northwards but a few models have it going straight on to Florida.


Other disturbances are to be seen, one actually in the Gulf, but development is a while off, if it happens


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
19 September 2019 17:23:22

Jerry now a Cat 1


Humberto was a Cat 3 but now weakening and steaming across the Atlantic


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
picturesareme
19 September 2019 18:20:50

More than 33 inches of rain.. 25 inches falling overnight Rain rates as high as 5 inches an hour.


Imelda has been a wet one.


 


 https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/flash-flooding-eastern-texas-forces-hospital-evacuation-home/story%3fid=65712731


 


 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 September 2019 06:21:09

Even one unconfirmed report of 40+ inches, now affecting same areas as Harvey did


Humberto now part of general Atlantic circulation, Jerry now thought likely to recurve well away from Bahamas but very likely to hit Bermuda (though some models saying that if it strengthens excessively it will pick up some high level steering and go to the Gulf of Mexico instead). 


Still watching disturbances in the Gulf S of Haiti and in mid-Atlantic


Current season just above average activity for this date


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 September 2019 06:00:14

Humberto dissipated though its remnants will beef up this week's rain for the UK


Jerry hovering between cat 1 & cat 2 near the Leeward Islands, now looks to have Bermuda firmly in its sights before moving on to the N Atlantic


99L now up to 40% chance of storm development and likely to cross Windward Islands into Caribbean Sea where not expected to develop further (surely unusual not to develop in that area at this time of year?)


Another disturbance leaving Africa with good prospects of development over 5 days


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 September 2019 06:25:30

This morning's forecasts:


Jerry to maintain track over Bermuda but weakening to tropical storm status


99l now close to Winward Islands but recurving north over Puerto Rico and back int the Atlantic, developing as it does so; if/when it achieves Named status it will be Karen


Better prospects for development for disturbance by Cabo Verde, but that also to curve into the Atlantic away from land. (What's with all the storms this year? They seem to be nervous of entering the Gulf of Mexico)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
22 September 2019 12:06:53

Karen is born and also heading towards Bermuda and later us probably. might inject some more tropical air after Jerry


The one in Africa is almost there now, not sure where he is heading


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
22 September 2019 15:45:59

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/90L.html


90L almost a TS now


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
22 September 2019 17:34:51

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/90L.html


90L almost a TS now



This will be a very interesting storm to keep an eye on.


Models have it emulating Ophelia/Leslie.


Exceptionally far NE storm possible.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
22 September 2019 18:54:20


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
23 September 2019 06:05:04

Hurricanes Jerry and Karen as forecast yesterday, blowing themselves out in the Atlantic after a close pass to Bermuda (Jerry) and Puerto Rico (Karen). 'Thirteen' off Africa set to become storm Lorenzo and also head off into the Atlantic without making a landfall


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
23 September 2019 10:50:43

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Hurricanes Jerry and Karen as forecast yesterday, blowing themselves out in the Atlantic after a close pass to Bermuda (Jerry) and Puerto Rico (Karen). 'Thirteen' off Africa set to become storm Lorenzo and also head off into the Atlantic without making a landfall



Hurricane Karen???? Where do you get your information from? 


The best site..


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov


 

Lionel Hutz
23 September 2019 11:37:08

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


This will be a very interesting storm to keep an eye on.


Models have it emulating Ophelia/Leslie.


Exceptionally far NE storm possible.


 



Having been right in the firing line for Ophelia, this gets me a little bit concerned. Presumably, however, it's way, way too early for any sort of reliable forecast as to whether we might have an Ophelia mark 2 in this neck of the woods?


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Quantum
23 September 2019 15:19:30

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


 


Having been right in the firing line for Ophelia, this gets me a little bit concerned. Presumably, however, it's way, way too early for any sort of reliable forecast as to whether we might have an Ophelia mark 2 in this neck of the woods?



Indeed, there have also been plenty of 'ophelia' candidates I've talked about in here that have turned out to be busts. At this stage its interesting but nothing more than that.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Users browsing this topic

Ads