A what?

Eye Wall Replacement Cycle

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Thanks

Expected to weaken from now but still maintain Cat 5 status for nearly 2 days

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911 mb I see, anyone know what the record is for Atlantic hurricanes?

 

911 mb I see, anyone know what the record is for Atlantic hurricanes?

 

Wilma, at 882, I think -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_pressure

3pm local update:
SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...26.6N 77.2W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES

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As usual the weather underground category 6 blog starts off being the best source of information with good updates and commenters posting images, data etc and then once we get within 48 hours of a US landfall it turns into an all American kids party of hyperbole, “hopes and prayers” and ill temper. Still some useful data being posted though:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Historic-Catastrophic-Hurricane-Dorian-Pounding-Bahamas-185-mph-Winds 

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911 mb I see, anyone know what the record is for Atlantic hurricanes?

Wiki is your friend. Top ten list

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_pressure

 

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Take a look at #HurricaneDorian churning over the Atlantic Ocean, as captured by cameras outside the @Space_Station at 12:16pm ET. As a Category 5 hurricane, the storm is carrying the strongest winds in recorded history for the northwestern Bahamas. More: https://t.co/bS4IBdcQpW pic.twitter.com/PIvN29BMVt

— NASA (@NASA) September 1, 2019

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Been away for 2 days when I left I saw Dorian heading to Florida by most of or all of models with a direct hit cat 4 storm now it's cat 5 but shows like it will miss the entire USA mainland!??? All that panic for little or nothing!

 

https://www.google.com/maps/@32.1400719,-76.4485467,5z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s%2Fg%2F11hz_3v1pw

 

Some poor forecasts too- only a day or so back they forecast max wind speeds of 140mph and now today we have seen 180mph?

An interesting informative video link :)

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/hurricane-dorian-update-category-4-storm-landfall-latest-track-path-models-forecast-2019-09-01/

 

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Some models including UKMet still have a Florida landfall - and the 'headline' model, i.e. the NHC forecast has Dorian only about 30-40 miles offshore, and a hurricane watch for the Florida coast, so I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to trash the forecasts. Only a small wobble will take Dorian into Florida. Even if the NHC model is correct, and there's no landfall, there will be major damage from storm surges all the way up the east coast.

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back up to 175 after weakening earlier

 

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Been away for 2 days when I left I saw Dorian heading to Florida by most of or all of models with a direct hit cat 4 storm now it's cat 5 but shows like it will miss the entire USA mainland!??? All that panic for little or nothing!

 

https://www.google.com/maps/@32.1400719,-76.4485467,5z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s%2Fg%2F11hz_3v1pw

 

Some poor forecasts too- only a day or so back they forecast max wind speeds of 140mph and now today we have seen 180mph?

An interesting informative video link :)

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/hurricane-dorian-update-category-4-storm-landfall-latest-track-path-models-forecast-2019-09-01/

 

That`s a bit harsh to criticise what is a very difficult and ever changing situation to be honest I think the forecast was excellent and it may well yet make landfall in Florida but even if it doesn`t coastal areas all the way up from Florida to New York will feels its effects in a major way either with destructive winds and heavy rains or flooding from storm surge.

Based on reports saying how the whole storm system is trundling along at 1 mph to 7 mph, that means it would be possible to outrun it at walking pace. 

The slow moving nature of Dorian must mean places in the Bahamas would have been - or rather will be - experiencing 180 mph-plus winds for getting on 24 hours straight. That is the stuff of nightmares. Also those under the eye for several hours probably would be fooled in thinking it is all over when in actual fact the worst is yet to come.

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Been away for 2 days when I left I saw Dorian heading to Florida by most of or all of models with a direct hit cat 4 storm now it's cat 5 but shows like it will miss the entire USA mainland!??? All that panic for little or nothing!

 

Yes, at one stage looking to make a direct hit on Mar-e-Lago - hopefully to carry off the orange scumbag never to be seen again.

Alas, there is no justice in this world.

 

 

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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!

 

 

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NHC tracking no less than 4 disturbances https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

1. Dorian we know about


2. A 90% chance of the one off the Cabo Verde Islands developing in 5 days - IMO this one is likely to become very powerful on a southerly track


3. A 50% chance of development for the one in the Gulf of Mexico. Plenty of thermal energy available but likely to take the short sea route to the Mexico coast and die before becoming a full-blown hurricane


4. A less positive future for a disturbance in mid-Atlantic, not likely to amount to much

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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/No-Rest-Grand-Bahama-Island-Prolonged-Storm-Surge-Threat-Ahead-Southeast-US?cm_ven=cat6-widget

The latest 12Z Monday runs of the four track models that performed best in  in 2018—the European, UKMET, HWRF, and GFS—have all fallen in line with a track about 50 - 80 miles from the coast of Florida and Georgia, then growing very close to the coast or making landfall in the Carolinas. ... As of 11 pm EDT Monday, a hurricane warning was in place from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. 

Remember that the average error in a 24-hour NHC forecast is about 40 miles, and a 48-hour forecast is typically in error by about 65 miles

[abridged]

Strong similarity to Hurricane Matthew of 2016 which caused $10bn damage mostly through storm surges

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Is it me or is this Hurricane taking a more easterly track as time progresses?

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"But a Category 5 is something that -- I don't know that I've ever even heard the term other than I know it's there.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/01/politics/donald-trump-category-5-hurricane-dorian/index.html

 

I mean, there's only been four Cat 5 hurricanes since he was elected ...

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The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is now Storm Fernand - to make landfall just south of the Texas border as a tropical storm.

Dorian moving away from Bahamas at last, having set a record for slow movement over 24 hr of 1.3 mph. Sustained winds of 120mph for 24 hr is really something you don't want to experience  Dorian forecast to follow the coast and not now expected to make landfall until it reaches South Carolina, if then. It has weakened to cat 2, but also broadened out with storm force winds up to 150 miles from centre, so the tropical storm warnings for the coast of the US are not surprising - and 10" of rain along the coast, too!

 

(Next name up is Gabrielle)

 

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