Here is the link to the contingency planners forecast for Jul / Jul-Sep

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jas-v2.pdf

Fig T3 shows the data points from the models for July 2019. The mid-point of the range appears to be in the upper 15's which is somewhat below the long run mean.

My analogue analysis looked at years where May and June were both close to average. Since 1950 this gave 8 matches. There were 5 years below average with a CET between 14.7C and 15.9C (1958, 1961, 1974, 1978. 1980). Two years were close to average at around 16.8C (1969, 1997). One year was very warm with 18.6C (1995). So overall a general signal from both the analogues and the contingency planners forecast for something a little below average if you look at everything in the round.

If we expect the matching back beyond May we find that 1961 and 1997 are the best matches to 2019 as Feb, Mar and Apr were all warm in these years. 1961 had a cool Jul CET at 15.2C and 1997 was close to average at 16.7C. 

1997 is clearly more representative of modern times and the general warming trend. The model output at the start of the month, as per post 1 of this thread also pointed to something average or slightly below. 

Given all the above and the fact that the last two months have been close to average, I decided to go for another average month with my prediction of 16.8C.

Full list of predictions coming shortly.

Latest CET tracker for July

The first half of the month will finish very close to average. The second half looks much warmer although this is largely down to very warm nights generally. Nothing especially warm by day as things currently stand although should see mid 20's quite widely across the CET area by the third week of July.

Hadley is currently tracking well ahead of my prediction at 16.72C vs. 16.26C. So a 0.46C difference. Expect a large downward adjustment this month.

Here are the predictions for July. Sorry for the delay.

Despite the rather uninspiring model output at the start of the month, most people have gone for something a little above average which looks a good call. My guess at this point would be a CET around mid 17's but still plenty of time for that to change.

Link to full sized table

Welcome home GW!     

Thanks for the table and no problem with the delay.  You did warn us and we all need a holiday!   Where did you go by the way?  

Met Office Hadley         16.7c.       Anomaly     0.8c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                      16.56       Anomaly     0.10c

Netweather                   17.19c      Anomaly     0.7c

Mean of my 10 stations    17.42c     Difference    -0.27c.

Originally Posted by: Jerry P

Hi GW - my prediction doesn't appear on the list . I've checked my PM and it did get sent on 29 June.

Hope you had an enjoyable break 👍

Sorry Jerry. I do have your prediction and it is logged. It was a range error in my graph that caused you not to appear. 16.3C at the bottom of the table with GezM.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming

 

Sorry Jerry. I do have your prediction and it is logged. It was a range error in my graph that caused you not to appear. 16.3C at the bottom of the table with GezM.

Thanks. I had a feeling that my low guess might have had something to do with it....!

Originally Posted by: Global Warming

 

Where else!

Entirely for research purposes of course. Trying to work out the mean temperature across all the drinking establishments in Central England. Sadly I got too blotto to recall any of the data I collected....... So will have to start all over again.

My kinda plan  

(wherever you went, I hope you enjoyed it )