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Online Saint Snow  
#101 Posted : 12 July 2019 08:51:47(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 46,483
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post
I’m not worried about my guess yet.  I think I went 17.2c!

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post
Nor me at 17.42C, at least not yet.

 

I've gone higher than both of you 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline johncs2016  
#102 Posted : 12 July 2019 09:09:15(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 6,337
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

I know that GW is or has been on holiday recently why is probably why he hasn't yet published the list of everyone's guesses in the manner in which he normally would have done by now.

However, it will be interesting to see what everyone's guesses actually were once he eventually gets round that that. Personally, I can't actually remember off by hand what I guessed which means that I would currently need to read the PM for that which I sent to GW in order to find that out.

For various reasons though, I'm not too bothered about that for now which means that I can't be bothered with going through those steps which I just mentioned, just to remind myself of what my guess for this month actually was.

In my initial post which members of this forum weren't very happy with due that being posted whilst these guesses were still being submitted, I mentioned that I went for something which was around 1°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average but without any other knowledge, I still don't believe that I would be able to work out what my guess actually was purely from that information alone.

 

Edited by user 12 July 2019 09:13:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Located in the north of Edinburgh where very little in the way of actual weather ever happens, compared to elsewhere within the rest of the UK.

Online Saint Snow  
#103 Posted : 12 July 2019 09:23:12(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 46,483
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post
Personally, I can't actually remember off by hand what I guessed which means that I would currently need to read the PM for that which I sent to GW in order to find that out.

 

Think it was for something which is roughly around 1°C above the 1981-2010 average.

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline johncs2016  
#104 Posted : 12 July 2019 09:27:51(UTC)
johncs2016

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Posts: 6,337
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United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Think it was for something which is roughly around 1°C above the 1981-2010 average.

 

Located in the north of Edinburgh where very little in the way of actual weather ever happens, compared to elsewhere within the rest of the UK.

Offline ARTzeman  
#105 Posted : 12 July 2019 09:42:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           16.6c.       Anomaly       0.8c.  Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                        16.68c      Anomaly       0.22c

Netweather                     17.12c      Anomaly       0.63c

Mean of my 10 stations    17.24c Difference   -0.45c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#106 Posted : 12 July 2019 11:46:21(UTC)
Caz

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Posts: 20,504
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post
 

I've gone higher than both of you 

Hmmm!  Well it’s climbing quite well now with the milder nights and as SC noted, temps have been consistently a couple of degrees higher that the models suggest!  So I may have gone too low!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Col  
#107 Posted : 12 July 2019 12:55:55(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,139
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Hmmm!  Well it’s climbing quite well now with the milder nights and as SC noted, temps have been consistently a couple of degrees higher that the models suggest!  So I may have gone too low!  

I would like to see the spread of predictions for July, just to see where I sit in that. How inconsiderate of GW to go on holiday :) We don't even know the June results yet although I know I did pretty well in that. Current CET value is moving upwards nicely but hardly spiralling out of control. No proper heatwave on the horizon that could propel it into the 18s but we're not even at mid-month yet so as ever at this stage of the month, still everything to play for.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Caz  
#108 Posted : 12 July 2019 13:23:35(UTC)
Caz

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Posts: 20,504
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

I would like to see the spread of predictions for July, just to see where I sit in that. How inconsiderate of GW to go on holiday :) We don't even know the June results yet although I know I did pretty well in that. Current CET value is moving upwards nicely but hardly spiralling out of control. No proper heatwave on the horizon that could propel it into the 18s but we're not even at mid-month yet so as ever at this stage of the month, still everything to play for.

I’m in no hurry to see the June results!    

Let’s take a poll on the table spread before GW comes back!  

I’m betting that at least 75% of us have gone above average for July!  What’s your bet?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#109 Posted : 12 July 2019 16:50:16(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Posts: 6,150
Location: Central Southern England

I went for about 17.7 I think.

My current local stats I've now worked out (after a 16.1 min last night and 25.8 max today).

Mean max to date for July: 24.1°C

Mean min for July: 13.5°C 

Mean T: a pleasing 18.8°C.

Although the hottest day was only above 26, there have been no days below 21 and only 3 days below 23 out of the 12.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Stormchaser  
#110 Posted : 12 July 2019 19:19:31(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Managed 25.5*C here today, giving an integer FV3 model error at 3 days range of... -6*C! 

Could be more large errors for this weekend, as it's one of those N to NE breeze setups that it tends to underestimate maximums the most in.

 

Now averaging 23.9*C (+1.8*C) for the max, 11.7*C (-0.6*C) for the min, so far this month. So both stats are on the up - but it looks a bit fresher for a few days now, which may peg back the min.

 

CET doing well I see - a little more so to this point than I anticipated, in fact. 

Given model signals for a more unsettled yet still at least average spell until Thu or Fri next week, followed by the potential for a very warm or hot spell as the patterns naturally swing back the other way, I'm beginning to sense that while I'll at last be the right side of the LTA, I may not be far enough that side for a good result.

The weather loves its irony .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Col  
#111 Posted : 13 July 2019 05:22:47(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,139
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I’m in no hurry to see the June results!    

Let’s take a poll on the table spread before GW comes back!  

I’m betting that at least 75% of us have gone above average for July!  What’s your bet?  

At least 75% seems about right. It's normally 75% or higher. June was probably something like 90%.

Edited by user 13 July 2019 05:25:25(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Online Gusty  
#112 Posted : 13 July 2019 07:08:50(UTC)
Gusty

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Posts: 14,589
Man
Location: Folkestone

Hurry back GW !

I need to know how far I've slipped down the table after my poor June prediction. 

Once I understand and come to terms with it I can move on. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Col  
#113 Posted : 13 July 2019 07:22:28(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,139
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Hurry back GW !

I need to know how far I've slipped down the table after my poor June prediction. 

Once I understand and come to terms with it I can move on. 

It's just the waiting isn't it, sheer anguish! Your life is on hold, can't think of anything else!

Think I might be up to 2nd place after June though :)

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Whether Idle  
#114 Posted : 13 July 2019 08:18:22(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Man
Location: Dover

I can see July finishing CET number being anywhere between 16.8 and 17.3.

GW deserves a decent holiday, give him a break.

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Online Gusty  
#115 Posted : 13 July 2019 08:45:56(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,589
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 It's just the waiting isn't it, sheer anguish! Your life is on hold, can't think of anything else!

Think I might be up to 2nd place after June though :)

.

You're having another good year Col. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Col  
#116 Posted : 13 July 2019 08:48:38(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,139
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

.

You're having another good year Col. 

Another good year? This is the first year I've emtered!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Online Gusty  
#117 Posted : 13 July 2019 09:16:57(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,589
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 Another good year? This is the first year I've emtered!

D'oh. Wrong person. I'm confusing you with someone else... 

There is someone in the leading pack that was in the running last year...I'll check.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline ARTzeman  
#118 Posted : 13 July 2019 10:20:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,238
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          16.7c.       Anomaly     0.8c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                       16.73c      Anomaly     0.27c

Netweather                    17.25c      Anomaly     0.76c

Mean of my 10 stations   17.52c   Difference     0.17c.   

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#119 Posted : 13 July 2019 10:32:39(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,504
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

Another good year? This is the first year I've entered!

  Ahh!  Beginners luck then!  It’s people like you who make me look bad!  

Notice I corrected your little typo!  You owe me one!  What’s your prediction for August?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Col  
#120 Posted : 13 July 2019 10:45:53(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,139
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

  Ahh!  Beginners luck then!  It’s people like you who make me look bad!  

Notice I corrected your little typo!  You owe me one!  What’s your prediction for August?  

I noticed that typo, normally I would have corrected it myself but on this occasion, hey I just couldn't be bothered.

As for August I have a gut feeling it's going to be a good one. Possibly a very good one. I think this summer is going to turn out very average overall. There has been some distinctly 'average' weather around recently and to counteract much of June being shockingly bad there will need to be a proper heatwave in August. And as had often been said on here, we are long overdue a good August.

I'd like to think that summer 2019 will become known as the 'fine wine' summer. Just gets better as it gets older :)

 

 

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

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