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Offline ARTzeman  
#81 Posted : 08 July 2019 09:37:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,770
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          16.1c.       Anomaly      0.4c   Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                       16.15c      Anomaly      -0.32c

Netweather                    16.65c      Anomaly      0.15c

Mean of my 10 stations  16.76c  Difference    -0.93c. 

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline picturesareme  
#82 Posted : 08 July 2019 11:35:35(UTC)
picturesareme

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 4,840
Location: pompey

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

We normally get one night in July when the temperature falls sub 10c.

Last night was that night with a low of 9.4c. 

Really? I would have thought being coastal next to the channel that would have been unlikely. I know the north sea is cold but proximity to france and all. 

Seldom drops out of the teens in July here... when it does its still in the 12's. Of course the warm nights bring about a lot of bugs that i know northeast folk don't get. hehe.

Offline ARTzeman  
#83 Posted : 09 July 2019 10:22:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,770
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           16.0c.       Anomaly      0.3c. provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                        16.4c        Anomaly      -0.3c

Netweather                     16.59c      Anomaly      0.1c

Mean of my 10 stations     16.67c.     Anomaly     -1.02c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Stormchaser  
#84 Posted : 09 July 2019 13:29:35(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,817
Man
Location: West Hants

10.721.1
8.421.7
11.823.2
7.825.4
11.025.3
12.325.6
14.823.1
10.522.4
11.5 

Off-topic I know but just for the record, here's my local statistics so far this month. 

The 8.4*C on 2nd was a date record low, and the 7.8*C on 4th very close to it.

I'm located very near to the chalky/sandy heathlands of the New Forest, which heat and cool rapidly, like the situation at Bournemouth Airport but not quite as pronounced.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Bertwhistle  
#85 Posted : 09 July 2019 16:24:31(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,921
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

10.721.1
8.421.7
11.823.2
7.825.4
11.025.3
12.325.6
14.823.1
10.522.4
11.5 

Off-topic I know but just for the record, here's my local statistics so far this month. 

The 8.4*C on 2nd was a date record low, and the 7.8*C on 4th very close to it.

I'm located very near to the chalky/sandy heathlands of the New Forest, which heat and cool rapidly, like the situation at Bournemouth Airport but not quite as pronounced.

Not off topic, and very interesting. Just as long as CET remains Central!

Here's GW's rationale for the thread:

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during July, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET)

A good warm start to July by day SC. My lowest max is also 21.1, on 7th.Nothing under 22 otherwise, with >26 on Saturday (6th). Local mean temp close to 18C.

 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Caz  
#86 Posted : 09 July 2019 16:54:31(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 19,383
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

Not off topic, and very interesting. Just as long as CET remains Central!

Here's GW's rationale for the thread:

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during July, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET)

A good warm start to July by day SC. My lowest max is also 21.1, on 7th.Nothing under 22 otherwise, with >26 on Saturday (6th). Local mean temp close to 18C.

 Agree!  Not off topic!

My min and max have been very similar to SC’s and today has hovered around 20c most of the afternoon just peaking over 21c when the sun was less hazy.  Perfect for me so far this month!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Stormchaser  
#87 Posted : 09 July 2019 19:13:37(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,817
Man
Location: West Hants

Ah, thanks for bringing that to my attention - for my own sake I really should start reading original posts more closely .

Hit the mid-20s again here today .

 

Just for fun, the FV3 (GFS) 12z - the first run since the late June hot snap to feature a full-blown heatwave for the UK - would send the CET into the low 18s as of 25th, by my rough estimate.

For my CET estimation I attempted to account for the low bias of the model, but wasn't as aggressive with that as I could have been, given how the last two months went relative to the signals at hand. Just watch me regret that this month .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Stormchaser  
#88 Posted : 09 July 2019 19:18:38(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,817
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

A good warm start to July by day SC. My lowest max is also 21.1, on 7th.Nothing under 22 otherwise, with >26 on Saturday (6th). Local mean temp close to 18C.

We're building a nice picture of conditions across the UK during this pleasant July .

With today's max of 24.2*C in, the mean stats so far this month, with anomalies (versus 1979-2018) in brackets, also make for interesting viewing:

Max 23.24*C (+1.13*C)

Min 11.22*C (-1.03*C)

24h 17.23*C (+0.05*C)

 

The Max & Min are almost perfectly balancing each other out!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#89 Posted : 09 July 2019 19:27:53(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 19,383
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

We're building a nice picture of conditions across the UK during this pleasant July .

With today's max of 24.2*C in, the mean stats so far this month, with anomalies (versus 1979-2018) in brackets, also make for interesting viewing:

Max 23.24*C (+1.13*C)

Min 11.22*C (-1.03*C)

24h 17.23*C (+0.05*C)

 

The Max & Min are almost perfectly balancing each other out!

You’re spot on there!  It is indeed a very pleasant July so far!  

Your 24 hr average is about what I thought the July CET would be!  I really don’t mind if I’ve gone too low though and it’ll probably be the first month I have!    

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Gusty  
#90 Posted : 10 July 2019 07:49:50(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,500
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: picturesareme Go to Quoted Post

 Really? I would have thought being coastal next to the channel that would have been unlikely. I know the north sea is cold but proximity to france and all. 

Seldom drops out of the teens in July here... when it does its still in the 12's. Of course the warm nights bring about a lot of bugs that i know northeast folk don't get. hehe.

Local topography plays a big role. It normally occurs under a steady very light (3-5 mph)WNW'ly flow under clear skies. Relatively cool descending air off the Downs finds it way through the local Pent Valley to my WS.

Temperatures soon bounce back to their normal 12-13 values if any of the above factors are not sustained.

Edited by user 10 July 2019 07:51:02(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline ARTzeman  
#91 Posted : 10 July 2019 10:44:01(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,770
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         16.1c.       Anomaly      0.4c Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                      16.3c        Anomaly      -0.31c

Netweather                   16.67c      Anomaly      0.8c

Mean of my 10 Stations    16.95c  Difference     -0.76c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Saint Snow  
#92 Posted : 10 July 2019 13:03:55(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 45,333
Man
Location: St Helens

I think I'm going to be way too high this month.

 

Where's GW, by the way? 

"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#93 Posted : 10 July 2019 14:32:03(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 19,383
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

I think I'm going to be way too high this month.

 

Where's GW, by the way? 

I’m not worried about my guess yet.  I think I went 17.2c!

GW’s on holiday but he didn’t say where.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online Col  
#94 Posted : 10 July 2019 17:09:33(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,026
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I’m not worried about my guess yet.  I think I went 17.2c!

GW’s on holiday but he didn’t say where.  

Nor me at 17.42C, at least not yet. However the figure has been bumping around the 16C mark and I would like it to start moving up soon if I'm not to be left needing an extreme heatwave in the last week in order to make up ground. Thing is to me the low 20s is warm but we are now in July and that's really only average for 2 of the 3 CET stations so those kinds of values aren't going to shift the figure much. Perhaps some warm nights might do the trick?

Edited by user 10 July 2019 19:33:09(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Caz  
#95 Posted : 10 July 2019 18:56:54(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 19,383
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

Nor me at 17.42C, at least not yet. However the figure has been bumping around the 16C mark and I would like it to start moving up soon if I'm not to be left needing an extreme heatwave in the last month in order to make up ground. Thing is to me the low 20s is warm but we are now in July and that's really only average for 2 of the 3 CET stations so those kinds of values aren't going to sfift the figure much. Perhaps some warm nights might do the trick?

  Yes, a few warm nights should do it!  We’ve had some cooler nights in single figures but last night my minimum was 16.1c.  A few nights like that for the CET stations with mid 20c days will bump it up nicely.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Stormchaser  
#96 Posted : 10 July 2019 20:21:58(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,817
Man
Location: West Hants

It'll help those with estimates in the 17s+ if the CET stations can exceed the model maximums as much as my locality has been of late.

After reaching 25.6*C today, which even I was surprised by (expected 24s like yesterday given a breeze from the S but even Bournemouth Airport was untroubled with a max of 25.5*C there - Channel cooling cancelled!), the integer FV3 model errors look like this for July so far.

Columns are prediction range (days), minimum temp error (*C), maximum temp  error (*C).

2-1-2
3-1-3
4-5-3
32-3
41-1
30-5
2-4-2
32-2
4-2-5
31-3


As you can see, the minimum errors are inconsistent in both magnitude and direction (5 negative, 4 positive, one neutral), but the maximum errors are consistently negative and predominantly between -2 and -3*C. I use integers for easier at-a-glance assessment. 

The existence of three-5s, with two at just 3 days range, is laughably sad .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#97 Posted : 11 July 2019 05:35:36(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 19,383
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

It'll help those with estimates in the 17s+ if the CET stations can exceed the model maximums as much as my locality has been of late.

After reaching 25.6*C today, which even I was surprised by (expected 24s like yesterday given a breeze from the S but even Bournemouth Airport was untroubled with a max of 25.5*C there - Channel cooling cancelled!), the integer FV3 model errors look like this for July so far.

Columns are prediction range (days), minimum temp error (*C), maximum temp  error (*C).

2-1-2
3-1-3
4-5-3
32-3
41-1
30-5
2-4-2
32-2
4-2-5
31-3


As you can see, the minimum errors are inconsistent in both magnitude and direction (5 negative, 4 positive, one neutral), but the maximum errors are consistently negative and predominantly between -2 and -3*C. I use integers for easier at-a-glance assessment. 

The existence of three-5s, with two at just 3 days range, is laughably sad .

Oooh!  That took some figuring out but it is a bit early in the morning!  That’s my excuse.  

Even at very short range the automated forecasts are consistently negative by two to three degrees.  All three of my phone apps, including the Met O one, underestimate even on the day.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#98 Posted : 11 July 2019 11:20:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,770
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          16.4c       Anomaly       0.6c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                       16.55c    Anomaly       0.09c

Netweather                    16.92c    Anomaly       0.43c

Mean of my 10 stations  17.21c.  Difference    -0.48c.  

Edited by user 11 July 2019 12:00:07(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#99 Posted : 11 July 2019 11:52:01(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 19,383
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley          1.6c       Anomaly       0.6c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                       16.55c    Anomaly       0.09c

Netweather                    16.92c    Anomaly       0.43c

Mean of my 10 stations  17.21c.  Difference    -0.48c.  

  It needs to warm up a bit to get to my guess!  

Art, you brighten my day!  I think it’s 16.4c.   

Edited by user 11 July 2019 11:53:59(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#100 Posted : 11 July 2019 12:02:22(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,770
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

  It needs to warm up a bit to get to my guess!  

Art, you brighten my day!  I think it’s 16.4c.   

 

Edited as usual. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

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