Possibly that's meant to be 15.6*C for the latest Hadley?
Either that or the LTA dives half a degree Celsius between 3rd and 4th, which seems a bit of a large fluctuation.
NWP model runs continue to suggest conditions a bit on the cool side Sun-Wed, then warmer, perhaps much so by next weekend.
The cool nights are noteworthy at this time; my local mean minimum is running at the lowest on record and looks to stay that way until at least Tue.
Rough estimate from the FV3 00z suggests around 15.7*C to 10th, rising to around 17.0*C by 16th - but worth noting that this was one of the warmest runs of recent days. ECM keeps the ridge focus a bit more to the west until 15th, so temps don't rise as emphatically.
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