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Offline Chidog  
#181 Posted : 26 July 2019 13:28:32(UTC)
Chidog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 77
Location: Coulsdon

Minimum hourly readings overnight were 18.1, 17.9 and 17.6. Even taking 0.5 from each of these gives 52.1/3 = 17.37C as a min. Mean would be (52.1+101.4)/6 = 25.58C. I think all the provisional readings are way too low and this will end up being the highest day on record for both mean and max. Probably due to a bias towards Southern coastal stations in the provisional figure, the same bias that normally leads to an erroneously high provisional figure
Offline Caz  
#182 Posted : 26 July 2019 13:33:46(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,270
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Chidog Go to Quoted Post

Sounds way too low. Even using the highest hourly readings at the three stations of 31.4, 33.8 and 36.2 gives 101.4/3 = 33.8C

The maths are right if those were the max readings. I wonder if they’ve done the usual trick of adjusting down?  The Met office seem to be having problems with their data in general.  Maybe GW will be able to shed some light!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Caz  
#183 Posted : 26 July 2019 13:43:38(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,270
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Chidog Go to Quoted Post
Minimum hourly readings overnight were 18.1, 17.9 and 17.6. Even taking 0.5 from each of these gives 52.1/3 = 17.37C as a min. Mean would be (52.1+101.4)/6 = 25.58C. I think all the provisional readings are way too low and this will end up being the highest day on record for both mean and max. Probably due to a bias towards Southern coastal stations in the provisional figure, the same bias that normally leads to an erroneously high provisional figure
I was with you up to your last sentence.  How do Southern coastal stations affect the three CET stations?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#184 Posted : 26 July 2019 13:50:51(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,718
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Chidog Go to Quoted Post
Minimum hourly readings overnight were 18.1, 17.9 and 17.6. Even taking 0.5 from each of these gives 52.1/3 = 17.37C as a min. Mean would be (52.1+101.4)/6 = 25.58C. I think all the provisional readings are way too low and this will end up being the highest day on record for both mean and max. Probably due to a bias towards Southern coastal stations in the provisional figure, the same bias that normally leads to an erroneously high provisional figure

CVan you explain what you mean Chidog? The CET stations are Pershore (Worcs), Rothamsted (Herts) and Stonyhurst (Lancs). I think I've misunderstood what you mean regarding Southern coastal stations.

Cheers

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Caz  
#185 Posted : 26 July 2019 13:58:34(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,270
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

CVan you explain what you mean Chidog? The CET stations are Pershore (Worcs), Rothamsted (Herts) and Stonyhurst (Lancs). I think I've misunderstood what you mean regarding Southern coastal stations.

Cheers

Oh!  I thought I was having a senior moment!  Unless we both are!    

I quite understand the maths and see where you’re coming from though Chidog!   Your input is interesting. Thank you!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Saint Snow  
#186 Posted : 26 July 2019 14:51:58(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,607
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Location: St Helens

Looking like Col is going to be the big beneficiary of this month in the annual comp.

GezM and Gusty having shockers. 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline GezM  
#187 Posted : 26 July 2019 15:08:27(UTC)
GezM

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United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Looking like Col is going to be the big beneficiary of this month in the annual comp.

GezM and Gusty having shockers. 

Tell me about it 

The only comfort is that I didn't go high and we ended up having a cold, wet July!!

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Saint Snow  
#188 Posted : 26 July 2019 16:06:25(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

 

Tell me about it 

The only comfort is that I didn't go high and we ended up having a cold, wet July!!

 

Is that what is called a 'double negative'? 

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Global Warming  
#189 Posted : 26 July 2019 22:00:54(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,134

Originally Posted by: Chidog Go to Quoted Post

 

Sounds way too low. Even using the highest hourly readings at the three stations of 31.4, 33.8 and 36.2 gives 101.4/3 = 33.8C

Don't forget the CET station in the west is Pershore College not Pershore. 

My calculations for Thursday are as follows:

Mean CET 24.98C (2nd highest on record. Record is 25.2C on 29 July 1948)

Max CET 33.52C (highest on record)

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#190 Posted : 26 July 2019 22:24:44(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,134

To summarise the 41 pages in the other thread, here are the top 5 temperatures recorded on Thursday 25 July, which are as always provisional and subject to Met Office quality control before being confirmed

Cambridge BG 38.7C

Brogdale (Faversham) 38.4C

Cambridge NIAB 38.1C

Heathrow 37.9C

Kew Gardens 37.9C

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Caz  
#191 Posted : 27 July 2019 04:54:56(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,270
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Don't forget the CET station in the west is Pershore College not Pershore. 

My calculations for Thursday are as follows:

Mean CET 24.98C (2nd highest on record. Record is 25.2C on 29 July 1948)

Max CET 33.52C (highest on record)

   Yay!  We got a record and only just missed out on another by 0.4c.  I guess Thursday was also a date record.  

That’s pretty impressive and what an experience!  A very sticky experience and not one my body would like to repeat too often but amazingly exciting and historical!  I recorded 37c IMBY, which is fairly accurate according to other sources and by far the highest ever for here. 

Both June and July have ended with heatwaves.  Will August throw up as much excitement?  Oh, I’ll be in the Caribbean for the end of August, hoping not to get a hurricane!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online Col  
#192 Posted : 27 July 2019 05:40:41(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 914
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Is that what is called a 'double negative'? 

 

I was thinking 'double whammy'!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Bertwhistle  
#193 Posted : 27 July 2019 06:25:40(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,718
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

Don't forget the CET station in the west is Pershore College not Pershore. 

My calculations for Thursday are as follows:

Mean CET 24.98C (2nd highest on record. Record is 25.2C on 29 July 1948)

Max CET 33.52C (highest on record)

Thanks

 

Does that put the min for 25th at about 16.4? Hadley hasn't adjusted yet and has 16.8 & 32.5.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline ARTzeman  
#194 Posted : 27 July 2019 09:38:37(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,895
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         18.0c.     Anomaly      2.0c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                      17.93c    Anomaly      1.47c

Netweather                   18.48c    Anomaly      1.99c

Mean of my 10 stations  18.81c.   Difference     1.12c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#195 Posted : 27 July 2019 09:42:26(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,134

The highest minimum CET was on Wednesday.

My calculation is a figure of 17.83C

This provisional calculation is joint 9th in the all time minimum CET ranking. Top 10 are as follows:

29 July 1948 18.8C

11 August 1997 18.8C

5 August 1975 18.5C

5 September 1949 18.4C

4 July 1976 18.0C

29 July 2001 18.0C

1 August 1995 17.9C

13 July 1941 17.9C

26 July 2006 17.8C

2 August 1995 17.8C

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#196 Posted : 27 July 2019 09:50:35(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,134

Maximum temperature date records this week

23 July 33.7C Northolt (previous high 33.4C)

24 July 34.3C Writtle (32.6C)

25 July 38.7C Cambridge BG (35.3C)

 

CET mean date records this week (provisional)

23 July 22.5C (previous 22.4C)

25 July 25.0C (22.7C)

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#197 Posted : 27 July 2019 09:54:46(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,134

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley         18.0c.     Anomaly      2.0c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                      17.93c    Anomaly      1.47c

Netweather                   18.48c    Anomaly      1.99c

Mean of my 10 stations  18.81c.   Difference     1.12c.  

Provisional Hadley CET mean at 17.95C 

My estimated CET mean is 17.46C

So still a difference of about 0.5C as there has been most of the month.

Not much change in the CET expected in the next few days. I expect the final figure to also be 17.46C.

 

Edited by user 27 July 2019 09:58:49(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Online Col  
#198 Posted : 27 July 2019 11:14:53(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 914
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

Provisional Hadley CET mean at 17.95C 

My estimated CET mean is 17.46C

So still a difference of about 0.5C as there has been most of the month.

Not much change in the CET expected in the next few days. I expect the final figure to also be 17.46C.

 

I wasn't expecting it to get quite as high as 18.0C to be honest. However that's the last of the hot days factored in and I expect it to level off or even ease down a touch by months end. I did recall you saying earlier to expect a significant downgrade and it seems that is still on the cards. All bodes very well for my prediction of 17.42C :)

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Caz  
#199 Posted : 27 July 2019 14:51:56(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,270
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Maximum temperature date records this week

23 July 33.7C Northolt (previous high 33.4C)

24 July 34.3C Writtle (32.6C)

25 July 38.7C Cambridge BG (35.3C)

 

CET mean date records this week (provisional)

23 July 22.5C (previous 22.4C)

25 July 25.0C (22.7C)

Yes!    That’s what I like to see!  Records being broken!  

Thanks for all the data GW!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Caz  
#200 Posted : 27 July 2019 14:53:38(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,270
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

I wasn't expecting it to get quite as high as 18.0C to be honest. However that's the last of the hot days factored in and I expect it to level off or even ease down a touch by months end. I did recall you saying earlier to expect a significant downgrade and it seems that is still on the cards. All bodes very well for my prediction of 17.42C :)

That’s good news for you Col!  

Not too bad for me either, for a change!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

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