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July UK Temperature analysis and discussion
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Minimum hourly readings overnight were 18.1, 17.9 and 17.6. Even taking 0.5 from each of these gives 52.1/3 = 17.37C as a min. Mean would be (52.1+101.4)/6 = 25.58C. I think all the provisional readings are way too low and this will end up being the highest day on record for both mean and max. Probably due to a bias towards Southern coastal stations in the provisional figure, the same bias that normally leads to an erroneously high provisional figure
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 20,266  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Chidog  Sounds way too low. Even using the highest hourly readings at the three stations of 31.4, 33.8 and 36.2 gives 101.4/3 = 33.8C The maths are right if those were the max readings. I wonder if they’ve done the usual trick of adjusting down? The Met office seem to be having problems with their data in general. Maybe GW will be able to shed some light! |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 20,266 Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Chidog Minimum hourly readings overnight were 18.1, 17.9 and 17.6. Even taking 0.5 from each of these gives 52.1/3 = 17.37C as a min. Mean would be (52.1+101.4)/6 = 25.58C. I think all the provisional readings are way too low and this will end up being the highest day on record for both mean and max. Probably due to a bias towards Southern coastal stations in the provisional figure, the same bias that normally leads to an erroneously high provisional figure I was with you up to your last sentence. How do Southern coastal stations affect the three CET stations?  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,115
Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Chidog Minimum hourly readings overnight were 18.1, 17.9 and 17.6. Even taking 0.5 from each of these gives 52.1/3 = 17.37C as a min. Mean would be (52.1+101.4)/6 = 25.58C. I think all the provisional readings are way too low and this will end up being the highest day on record for both mean and max. Probably due to a bias towards Southern coastal stations in the provisional figure, the same bias that normally leads to an erroneously high provisional figure CVan you explain what you mean Chidog? The CET stations are Pershore (Worcs), Rothamsted (Herts) and Stonyhurst (Lancs). I think I've misunderstood what you mean regarding Southern coastal stations. Cheers |
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 20,266 Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle CVan you explain what you mean Chidog? The CET stations are Pershore (Worcs), Rothamsted (Herts) and Stonyhurst (Lancs). I think I've misunderstood what you mean regarding Southern coastal stations. Cheers Oh! I thought I was having a senior moment! Unless we both are!  I quite understand the maths and see where you’re coming from though Chidog! Your input is interesting. Thank you! |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 46,015  Location: St Helens
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Looking like Col is going to be the big beneficiary of this month in the annual comp. GezM and Gusty having shockers. |
"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 774  Location: In a house
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Looking like Col is going to be the big beneficiary of this month in the annual comp. GezM and Gusty having shockers. Tell me about it  The only comfort is that I didn't go high and we ended up having a cold, wet July!! |
Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 46,015 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: GezM Tell me about it The only comfort is that I didn't go high and we ended up having a cold, wet July!! Is that what is called a 'double negative'?  |
"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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Originally Posted by: Chidog Sounds way too low. Even using the highest hourly readings at the three stations of 31.4, 33.8 and 36.2 gives 101.4/3 = 33.8C Don't forget the CET station in the west is Pershore College not Pershore. My calculations for Thursday are as follows: Mean CET 24.98C (2nd highest on record. Record is 25.2C on 29 July 1948) Max CET 33.52C (highest on record) |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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To summarise the 41 pages in the other thread, here are the top 5 temperatures recorded on Thursday 25 July, which are as always provisional and subject to Met Office quality control before being confirmed Cambridge BG 38.7C Brogdale (Faversham) 38.4C Cambridge NIAB 38.1C Heathrow 37.9C Kew Gardens 37.9C |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 20,266 Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Don't forget the CET station in the west is Pershore College not Pershore. My calculations for Thursday are as follows: Mean CET 24.98C (2nd highest on record. Record is 25.2C on 29 July 1948) Max CET 33.52C (highest on record) Yay! We got a record and only just missed out on another by 0.4c. I guess Thursday was also a date record. That’s pretty impressive and what an experience! A very sticky experience and not one my body would like to repeat too often but amazingly exciting and historical! I recorded 37c IMBY, which is fairly accurate according to other sources and by far the highest ever for here. Both June and July have ended with heatwaves. Will August throw up as much excitement? Oh, I’ll be in the Caribbean for the end of August, hoping not to get a hurricane!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,096
Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Is that what is called a 'double negative'? I was thinking 'double whammy'! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,115
Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Don't forget the CET station in the west is Pershore College not Pershore. My calculations for Thursday are as follows: Mean CET 24.98C (2nd highest on record. Record is 25.2C on 29 July 1948) Max CET 33.52C (highest on record) Thanks Does that put the min for 25th at about 16.4? Hadley hasn't adjusted yet and has 16.8 & 32.5. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,029 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 18.0c. Anomaly 2.0c. Provisional to 26th. Metcheck 17.93c Anomaly 1.47c Netweather 18.48c Anomaly 1.99c Mean of my 10 stations 18.81c. Difference 1.12c. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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The highest minimum CET was on Wednesday. My calculation is a figure of 17.83C This provisional calculation is joint 9th in the all time minimum CET ranking. Top 10 are as follows: 29 July 1948 18.8C 11 August 1997 18.8C 5 August 1975 18.5C 5 September 1949 18.4C 4 July 1976 18.0C 29 July 2001 18.0C 1 August 1995 17.9C 13 July 1941 17.9C 26 July 2006 17.8C 2 August 1995 17.8C |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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Maximum temperature date records this week 23 July 33.7C Northolt (previous high 33.4C) 24 July 34.3C Writtle (32.6C) 25 July 38.7C Cambridge BG (35.3C) CET mean date records this week (provisional) 23 July 22.5C (previous 22.4C) 25 July 25.0C (22.7C) |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,258
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Met Office Hadley 18.0c. Anomaly 2.0c. Provisional to 26th. Metcheck 17.93c Anomaly 1.47c Netweather 18.48c Anomaly 1.99c Mean of my 10 stations 18.81c. Difference 1.12c. Provisional Hadley CET mean at 17.95C My estimated CET mean is 17.46C So still a difference of about 0.5C as there has been most of the month. Not much change in the CET expected in the next few days. I expect the final figure to also be 17.46C. Edited by user 27 July 2019 09:58:49(UTC)
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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,096
Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Provisional Hadley CET mean at 17.95C My estimated CET mean is 17.46C So still a difference of about 0.5C as there has been most of the month. Not much change in the CET expected in the next few days. I expect the final figure to also be 17.46C. I wasn't expecting it to get quite as high as 18.0C to be honest. However that's the last of the hot days factored in and I expect it to level off or even ease down a touch by months end. I did recall you saying earlier to expect a significant downgrade and it seems that is still on the cards. All bodes very well for my prediction of 17.42C :) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 20,266 Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Maximum temperature date records this week 23 July 33.7C Northolt (previous high 33.4C) 24 July 34.3C Writtle (32.6C) 25 July 38.7C Cambridge BG (35.3C) CET mean date records this week (provisional) 23 July 22.5C (previous 22.4C) 25 July 25.0C (22.7C) Yes! That’s what I like to see! Records being broken! Thanks for all the data GW!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 20,266 Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Col I wasn't expecting it to get quite as high as 18.0C to be honest. However that's the last of the hot days factored in and I expect it to level off or even ease down a touch by months end. I did recall you saying earlier to expect a significant downgrade and it seems that is still on the cards. All bodes very well for my prediction of 17.42C :) That’s good news for you Col!  Not too bad for me either, for a change! |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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