Hi Mods.

Is there any chance of getting a sticky dedicated winter forecast thread for members?

I for one am in the process of producing my annual "guess", which is taking me quite a long time and a lot of work.

I would love to put it in a sticky thread that is here all winter, so people can have a look back at it to judge for themselves whether I (we) have any success or not.

As I'm off to Australia at the end of November for 4 weeks, my forecast will be ready to publish on here by 20th November.

I hope to be able to put it here in a sticky thread.

Matty H - could you do the honours (if I promise faithfully not to be an annoying misery guts this winter)!!

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I'll take your promise as gospel. Stray from the line and I'll ban you instantly and without warning

I will sticky this because there is nothing worse than a load of "Here's My Winter Forecast" threads

So here it is then - use this thread to post your stab in the dark guesses on what will happen this winter. Any fresh threads will be merged into this one

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Haha...don't worry Matty...I'm a changed man! (PROMISE)....
I just got a bit down in the dumps at times last year....but for what it's worth, I'm not expecting quite the same as last year, and so expecting less allows me to lower my own hopes!...To be honest, I'm like you in winter anyway....can't stand it unless it's cold and snowy!!....But as I'm off to Australia for the first month of winter, I should be happy this year!!

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My forecast for winter 2010/2011 -

It'll snow. Somewhere.

My full guess will be on December 1st.

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My forecast for winter 2010/2011 -

It'll snow. Somewhere.

My full guess will be on December 1st.

LOL Gavin. Same here but preparatory work is underway

Unleash your beasts ladies and gentlemen. Only snowy forecasts allowed ok?

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I've alrady posted  a thread winter 10/11 forecast Dec-Feb CET & rainfall.This asks  for members to put figures to their forecast in terms of temp and rainfall.Do you think it is best to merge this with the Dedicated Winter10/11 Members forecast tread or keep it seperate?

roger63

Winchester

 

A copy of 1982 weather Strong easterly winds and a lot of snow

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Yes members forecasts only in here. All commercial and the forecasts are to be discussed in the winter thoughts thread please.

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I think the pattern of mobile weather is pretty much set for the forseable, pretty much as i guessed, but lets be honest, with a La Nina event that was not hard to do. I still think as we draw toward Christmas we will see subtle but important changes in the pressure patterns. I think High pressure will be more established in the Mid Atlantic with Jet moving SE and High pressure buiding over Eastern Greenland, this will lead to more outbreaks of Colder weather after Christmas. So i am still sticking with a milder mobile set up early on with the odd colder transistory outbreaks., with colder weather becoming more frequent after Xmas

Looks like the rest of this month is going to be fairly mobile, with just brief cold snaps, but there will be signs of Northern blocking establishing itself towards the end of this month. Into December, and those signs start to show their hand, with a blocking high in the Atlantic linking up with a Greenland high, and this will give us a similar pattern to last December. January remains cold with blocking in the Atlantic still in charge for most of the time. The second half of January will see the Atlantic take more of an hold for a week or so, with temperatures returning to normal values for most of the country. Towards the latter stages of January winds turn to the east. 

This then sets the stage for the coldest part of the winter, a huge blocking high pushing in from Siberia, with a southerly tracking jet trying to make inroads to Western areas. This is where we will see some impressive snowfall totals.

Into March, and we still have high pressure in charge, with winds coming more from the South East. Towards the second week of March the Atlantic starts to take control, with temperatures recovering to above average.

Looks like the rest of this month is going to be fairly mobile, with just brief cold snaps, but there will be signs of Northern blocking establishing itself towards the end of this month. Into December, and those signs start to show their hand, with a blocking high in the Atlantic linking up with a Greenland high, and this will give us a similar pattern to last December. January remains cold with blocking in the Atlantic still in charge for most of the time. The second half of January will see the Atlantic take more of an hold for a week or so, with temperatures returning to normal values for most of the country. Towards the latter stages of January winds turn to the east. 

This then sets the stage for the coldest part of the winter, a huge blocking high pushing in from Siberia, with a southerly tracking jet trying to make inroads to Western areas. This is where we will see some impressive snowfall totals.

Into March, and we still have high pressure in charge, with winds coming more from the South East. Towards the second week of March the Atlantic starts to take control, with temperatures recovering to above average.

Well that certainly sounds an interesting winter.

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I agree.

I wouldn't necessarily concur with the thought that November's mobile weather bares much impact on the winter to come.

Although not old enough to remember, I believe November 1962 was quite a mobile and unsettled month.

Am looking to put the finishing touches to my winter LRF soon and will publish it here before the end of the month.

Early clues would be something of interest for most weather enthusiasts, but a different feel to winter this time compared with 2009-10 IMO.

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This thread is for MEMBERS forecasts and the discussion of them. Please stay on topic. I'll be deleting all off topic posts

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		#1 Posted : 03 November 2010 17:22:33  Edit Delete Quote
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 16/09/2006 Posts: 1,597		The Met Office will not be issuing an advance forecast for winter 10/11.Instead they will be giving a 30 day outlook at the end of the previous month. Its Two Weather Outlook posters chance to demonstrate their skills by putting figures to their words for the winter ahead.Will we be getting three cold winters in a row?Or will the strong La Nina dash those hopes. Using Phillip Eden's figures the monthly mean CET for Dec is 5.1,for Jan 4.2 and for Feb 4.2 giving a winter average of 4.5C.  Avearge Rainfall figures for Dec are 100.6mm,for Jan 93.8, for Feb 66.0 giving a winter total of 260.4. To enter you have to supply your forecast winter CET,and your forecast rainfall total.Entries to be in by November 30th. I'll kick off with winter mean CET 3.5,winter rain total 230mm. roger63 Winchester
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Essan		#2 Posted : 03 November 2010 17:34:41  Quote
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 05/04/2006 Posts: 7,156 Location: Evesham, Worcs		I've posted details of some of the main 'official' winter forecasts on W&ES News here - might be of interest to some before making their guesses   Must admit my initial thoughts are wavering a bit at present, but then, November last year was quite mild and very wet - so will winter follow the pattern?  Hmmm    I'll go for: CET 4.1c (with a cold start but early spring) Rainfall 210mm Andy Weather & Earth Science News “Life: loathe it or ignore it, you can't like it.” - Marvin
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JMW		#3 Posted : 03 November 2010 23:11:03  Quote
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 07/04/2010 Posts: 176 Location: London Matty i suggest that the forecasting competition for the whole of winter 2010/11 is put into this thread so that members can put some figures to their forecast if they wont.Above shows the long term CET and rainfall Dec-Feb and the three entrie sto date		I go for winter mean CET 4.6C, winter rain 215mm
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roger63

Isn't it interesting how the whole of Europe is below average in terms of temperature for January but as soon as you get across the English channel and north see....ding dong!!! above average temperatures for the Month! What if we were joined together like during evolution times, there would be no sudden abrupt cut off I bet or boundary between cold and warmer weather. It is srange the CFS always seem to cut off the blue below average temperatures from the English channel to become above average, it is the English Channels fault, like the M4 that divides our weather: take a look at this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I mean wow...look at January what a fine line, plus Joe ******i said that winter will be milder than average across Norway and Sweden and looking at that it shows below average temperatures for January.

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Hi,

Allready finish Winter forecast for Iberia and I must say we could see snow at sea level more often the previous years but it could be a drier one, so chances of a cold winter for Iberia is 65% at this point, specially during December and January. Frebuary is going to bring stormy weather from meridional fluxs, drifting from the Med.

Of course this is a more sour«thern forecast

 

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December 1st - 7th A changeable first week of December with winds coming from the Southwest/Northwest not unduly cold even mild for the time of year.

8th - 14th of December Conditions will settle down with an Anticyclone Lying over  over the U.K and Ireland giving us dry,fine and cold conditions with severe frost at night. Winds will be light and variable 

15th - 22nd of December Changeable for the first two days and then it will be all change, winds will change from Southwesterly to Northerly or Northwesterly bringing a plunge of very cold air over us bringing Snow showers to the North and West and as winds turn more North/Northeasterly wintry showers of Hail and Snow will appear on Northern and eastern facing coasts. We will have severe frosts.

23rd of December - 30th of December.. Again things will settle down with  frosts and freezing fog becoming widespread with day time temperatures hovering around freezing or slightly above.I think from Christmas Day to New Years Eve is when we have a greater chance/risk of heavy snowfall, with the east, north and southeast being the at the greatest risk.

For January 2011 I think that the very cold spells we have will be more prolonged with small mild intervals and I think February will be changeable.

Overall Winter 2010/2011 will be much colder than last year. 

 

I would love for a 1962 - 1963 style winter with severe cold and snow on the ground from Boxing day until early March. But of course, it won't happen. We will more than likely see cold and snow in December and January then come February it will be back to the seasonal norm, with any snow falling not lasting a long time, like last winter.

I do, however, believe this winter will be snowier and colder than last winter. East colder, west snowier.

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I appreciate that most of us are amateurs, but I would find this thread more interesting if posters could include a brief reason for their prediction eg La Nina, Solar, NAO trend, Atlantic SSTs, autumn synoptics or anything else. Also if looking at analogues (which most long range forecasters do) which years are considered to have had similar conditions.

At present I suspect that the solar driven(?) negative NAO trend will be the dominant factor in our sector of the hemisphere, but given that we will have La Nina rather than El Nino this winter I think it highly unlikely the cold will be as prolonged as last year. If I was making a prediction now I would go for a slightly below average CET overall.

Looking at strong La Nina winters of the past, I think the winter will be closer to 55/56 than the very mild 73/74 and 88/89. The synoptic pattern this September, for example, was not the type that typically precedes mild winters and other factors relating to decadal cycles make a 73/74 or 88/89 rather unlikely IMO.