WINTER FORECAST 2010-11

 

OK well I've had a crack at winter forecasting for the last three winters, with varying degrees of success.

My success for the last two winters particularly has been really encouraging, and has made me keen to have another crack this year.

 

I will begin (as always) with a basic summary of how I expect each of the three winter months to pan out, followed by a more dedicated month-by-month forecast.

** Please note that the forecast is based on my own methods, including pattern matching from previous years and also a study of solar activity. I've also taken into account the development of La Nina in the Pacific. Feel free to comment on my forecast, but please don't rip me to shreds, because this is just something I do as a hobby, and I have enjoyed compiling this forecast as always***

 

 

OK, so starting with a basic summary of how I expect the winter to pan out.

 

I believe that once again we are in for a colder than average winter, and in fact possibly the coldest winter since 1962/63.

I do not believe it will as cold as that famous year, but I believe there will be many significant cold outbreaks – with much of the coldest weather affecting the north and north east of the UK.

Conversely, areas in the south and west will experience closer to average conditions at times.

I do expect a couple of brief milder interludes, particularly in the south and west, with temperatures rising to above average here at times, particularly later in the winter.

 

 

DECEMBER 2010

 

December will start on a bitterly cold note with strong north to north-easterly winds predominating.

The first week of the month will see areas of low pressure undercutting a block to our north east, bringing spells of rain/sleet and snow to many areas of the south.

Further north, closer to a large cell of high pressure over Scandinavia, it will be exceptionally cold at times, though more settled with snowfall more in the way of showers rather than prolonged snow.

I feel that the first seven days will see maximum temperatures range from -5 in the north to around freezing in the south – perhaps a little milder in the extreme south west.

 

During the second week, a deep area of low pressure in the south west will attempt to push north and east into the block of cold air.

This has the potential to bring blizzard-like conditions at times with the chance of significant snowfall in many areas.

In the north, more settled with sunshine and snow showers at times, and remaining bitterly cold here.

Temperatures will range between -6 in the north to +4 in the extreme south west.

Overnight, we could easily see temperatures plummet to exceptionally low values, particularly across the snowfields – possibly as low as -25 in the highlands of Scotland – so close to record-breaking low temperatures.

 

The third week will, I believe, see a change to slightly milder weather for a time as more areas of low pressure and frontal systems affect much of the UK.

December (13th-17th), The north of the UK will never really escape the cold conditions, although it will get slightly milder here with spells of sleet and snow at times as the frontal systems make inroads.

Temperatures will be in the range of 2 or 3 degrees in the north to perhaps double figures briefly (10 degrees) in the south west, so at least it will be mild here.

 

In the week running up to Christmas (20-24th) I believe we will see a gradual settling down of the weather as an area of high pressure builds across France and the Low Countries.

This will bring cooler, drier and more settled weather, though with a fair amount of fog and frost.

Some of this fog could linger all day in prone areas (such as the Vale of York), leading to quite depressed temperatures in these areas.

However, there will also be some spells of winter sunshine, making for a crisp and seasonal feeling in the run-up to Christmas.

Temperatures will range between 2 degrees in the north to 8 in the far south, though maybe struggling to rise above freezing where fog lingers.

Temperatures overnight will plummet well below freezing in many areas, with sharp frosts likely nationwide.

 

At present, I think that Christmas will remain relatively settled, although the area of high pressure may begin to retrogress into the north Atlantic.

This will result in winds turning more northerly, particularly across the north.

Instability in this pattern could lead to the outbreak of wintry showers across northern areas, possibly with some snow on the highest ground of Scotland and Northern England.

But generally, I expect Christmas Day to be bright and dry, if rather on the cold side. Temperatures ranging from 3 degrees in the extreme north to 6 or 7 in the south.

Night-time temperatures will drop below freezing nationwide, ranging from -6 to -3 degrees.

 

The final week of December sees the high continue to retrogress out into the Atlantic, leading to a northerly interlude.

Showers will become more widespread, with the continued possibility of snow in some areas, particularly on northern and eastern facing coasts.

Much of the south will remain dry, with showers few and far between here.

Temperatures will be in the range of 3-7 degrees nationwide.

 

Overall, I expect December to come out with a below average CET and average rainfall.

 

JANUARY 2011

 

I expect the New Year to dawn on a fairly settled note in the south, though with further showers of rain, sleet or snow across northern most areas. However, the area of high pressure in the Atlantic will topple back into the UK, leading to a run of westerly winds and a more unsettled and mild regime briefly.

However, a strong build of higher pressure over Scandinavia will start showing its influence in the second week, which will bring, I believe, bring the chance of a UK-wide cold event once again.

So the first week of January will see north or north westerly winds continuing, feeding showers into the northwest. These showers will continue to have a somewhat wintry flavour, particularly over higher ground.

As the area of high pressure in the Atlantic topples back over the UK, this will cut off the showers briefly during the second half of the first week and temperatures will recover slightly.

I believe temperatures will range between 4 degrees in the north to 8 in the south, possibly rising to above-average values of 10-12 during the latter part of the first week.

At this point, I anticipate a large anticyclone over Scandinavia to begin to exert an influence, as areas of lower pressure skirt along the south of the country with a southerly-tracking jet.

Initially these areas of low pressure will deliver more wind and rain, particularly from the midlands southwards.

Winds will be south westerly to westerly at first with temperatures around or just above average.

Further north under more of a high pressure influence, conditions will settle down and become quite cold as the Scandinavian High takes control.

Temperatures during the second week will range from around 1-3 degrees in the north to above-average 9-12 in the south.

I believe the Scandi block will start to really exert its influence in the third week as areas of low pressure begin to undercut the high.

Winds will be more from an easterly quarter and temperatures will become below average to perhaps well below average in many areas.

As areas of low pressure bump into the colder air, precipitation will turn more wintry in nature, even across low ground in the south.

Bitterly cold easterly winds will see maximum temperatures range from around freezing point in the north, to perhaps 2-3 degrees in the south.

With the active jet being diverted south of the UK, there is the chance of formation of channel low pressures, which will have the potential of delivery quite a significant snow event from the midlands southwards.

During the fourth week of January, I expect the Scandi High to continue to block the Atlantic to a certain extent, although it will perhaps sink slightly towards the Balkans area, leading to a change of wind direction into the south east.

This will, in turn, lead to drier conditions across the south, though still rather on the cold side.

With the air being drier though, significant spells of sunshine will make it feel quite pleasant out of the wind at times.

Across the north, there will be showers of sleet or snow at times, interspersed by spells of sunshine, but staying cold.

Maximum temperatures during the last week of January will range from around 2 degrees in the north to around 4 or 5 in the south.

 

Overall, I expect January to come out with a slightly below average CET and average rainfall.

 

 

FEBRUARY 2011

**Lower confidence for this month, and so I make no apologies for being a little more vague as the month goes on**

 

The last month of winter 2010-11 will start as January finished, with showers of rain/sleet or snow across the north and drier/brighter weather from the midlands southwards.

A deep area of low pressure will zip across northern-most areas during the end of the first week, leading to a brief, but potent northerly spell in its wake.

This northerly spell will not last too long as heights rise again to the south, bringing a spell of more zonal and mild weather towards the middle and end of the month and possibly an early end to winter here.

 

So the first week of February will begin quite unsettled across Scotland and northern England. Showers of rain or sleet (snow on the hills) will make it feel quite miserable here, although in the south with sunnier skies, it will be rather pleasant in lighter winds from the south or south east as a mid-latitude high continues to block weather systems coming in from the west.

But it will be all change as a potent Atlantic storm does its best to smash the block.

A deep area of low pressure will zip across northern most areas.

Bumping into our cold air, this will bring heavy spells of snow in Scotland and high ground in northern England. Coupled with gale-force winds, there will be blizzard-like conditions at times, especially on exposed northern and western facing coasts and hills.

Some of this rain will fall as snow across the highest ground further south.

 

It will also be very windy in the rest of England and Wales, with gale force north-westerly’s and spells of rain or snow from frontal systems.

Temperatures will range from between 2 or 3 degrees in the north to 8-10 degrees in the extreme south during this period.

 

With a strong jet more directly affecting the UK, this area of low pressure will move fairly swiftly, and in its wake, we will see this brief northerly outbreak.

Strong to gale-force northerly winds will penetrate nationwide, and it will feel bitterly cold at times.

Showers of sleet or snow, initially affecting northern areas, will also begin to penetrate further south on increasing northerly winds.

Some of these snow showers will reach as far south as the Midlands, blown along on strong northerlies.

As is always possible in an unstable airstream, this may lead to the formation of small polar low pressure areas, which could serve to pep up the wintry precipitation.

Temperatures will range from around freezing in the north to 3 or 4 degrees in the south, but feeling much colder than this with the addition of the wind-chill factor.

Overnight we will see sharp and penetrating frosts with temperatures ranging from -5 to -2 degrees.

 

Height rises to the south will begin to cut off the northerly outbreak during the third week of February as winds turn more westerly again.

This will, I believe, lead to a much milder and settled third week, with some areas in the south beginning to feel particularly mild for the time of year.

In the north, however, you will still be influenced by north-westerly’s, so colder and more unsettled here.

Areas from the north of England southwards will become quite settled, though rather cloudy, but temperatures will rise markedly, perhaps getting back into the very mild category at times.

I believe these will range from around 4 or 5 degrees in the extreme north, to perhaps as high as 13 or 14 in the south west.

The final week of February will see a continuation of milder weather across the south; though will spells of rain likely at times.

The height rises to the south will continue, with an area of high pressure from the Azores bringing much milder weather in across the whole country.

There will be frontal systems crossing the country at times, bringing showers or longer spells of rain, but also some drier and brighter interludes.

 

I believe we will see an early start to spring-like conditions in the south of the UK as winds from the south west push temperatures into the mild to warm category towards the end of the month.

In any sunnier spells, temperatures in the south could reach 12 to 14 degrees quite easily, possibly higher in places.

Even in the north, the weather turns much milder, heralding a taste of spring across northern England and southern Scotland.

Showers or longer spells of rain here at times also, but daytime temperatures ranging from 6-10 degrees.

 

Overall I expect February to come out with average temperatures and average to above average rainfall.

 

 

That's all folks. I hope you enjoyed reading this. I've taken many, many weeks compiling this forecast. It may be right, it may be wrong (or it may be something in between).

I've had a decent success rate over the last three years, and so hopefully it will continue this year too.

 

My overall summary is a winter that will prove memorable in its severity and longevity.

There will be one or two mild spells, but generally a bitterly cold winter will predominate, with overall precipitation being around about the average for winter nationwide.

The overall CET for this winter will be (in my opinion) below to well-below average, but not withstanding a couple of mild spells along the way.

 

I believe we are in a new era – a “post-modern” winter if you like. The continued solar minima has made a big impact on our climate, and I feel that more winters like this are on the cards.

 

At times, what we may see this winter will make last winter seem fairly benign, particularly in the north and east, which has the POTENTIAL to see the coldest winter in decades.

 

For what it’s worth, I expect to see a quick recovery towards the end of February, with possibly an early start to spring, with March being warmer and drier than average, possibly heralding a warmer spring in general.

 

Hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed compiling it.

 

Cheers guys.

Moomin.

Nice forecast and a fantastic effort Moomin. Thanks very much.

Thanks Moomin

a great forecast - hope it comes off

I hope we get a Jan-Feb 1985 repeat - as the last couple of winters have been poor here - snow-wise

WINTER FORECAST 2010-11

 

OK well I've had a crack at winter forecasting for the last three winters, with varying degrees of success.

My success for the last two winters particularly has been really encouraging, and has made me keen to have another crack this year.

 

I will begin (as always) with a basic summary of how I expect each of the three winter months to pan out, followed by a more dedicated month-by-month forecast.

** Please note that the forecast is based on my own methods, including pattern matching from previous years and also a study of solar activity. I've also taken into account the development of La Nina in the Pacific. Feel free to comment on my forecast, but please don't rip me to shreds, because this is just something I do as a hobby, and I have enjoyed compiling this forecast as always***

 

 

OK, so starting with a basic summary of how I expect the winter to pan out.

 

I believe that once again we are in for a colder than average winter, and in fact possibly the coldest winter since 1962/63.

I do not believe it will as cold as that famous year, but I believe there will be many significant cold outbreaks – with much of the coldest weather affecting the north and north east of the UK.

Conversely, areas in the south and west will experience closer to average conditions at times.

I do expect a couple of brief milder interludes, particularly in the south and west, with temperatures rising to above average here at times, particularly later in the winter.

 

 

DECEMBER 2010

 

December will start on a bitterly cold note with strong north to north-easterly winds predominating.

The first week of the month will see areas of low pressure undercutting a block to our north east, bringing spells of rain/sleet and snow to many areas of the south.

Further north, closer to a large cell of high pressure over Scandinavia, it will be exceptionally cold at times, though more settled with snowfall more in the way of showers rather than prolonged snow.

I feel that the first seven days will see maximum temperatures range from -5 in the north to around freezing in the south – perhaps a little milder in the extreme south west.

 

During the second week, a deep area of low pressure in the south west will attempt to push north and east into the block of cold air.

This has the potential to bring blizzard-like conditions at times with the chance of significant snowfall in many areas.

In the north, more settled with sunshine and snow showers at times, and remaining bitterly cold here.

Temperatures will range between -6 in the north to +4 in the extreme south west.

Overnight, we could easily see temperatures plummet to exceptionally low values, particularly across the snowfields – possibly as low as -25 in the highlands of Scotland – so close to record-breaking low temperatures.

 

The third week will, I believe, see a change to slightly milder weather for a time as more areas of low pressure and frontal systems affect much of the UK.

December (13th-17th), The north of the UK will never really escape the cold conditions, although it will get slightly milder here with spells of sleet and snow at times as the frontal systems make inroads.

Temperatures will be in the range of 2 or 3 degrees in the north to perhaps double figures briefly (10 degrees) in the south west, so at least it will be mild here.

 

In the week running up to Christmas (20-24th) I believe we will see a gradual settling down of the weather as an area of high pressure builds across France and the Low Countries.

This will bring cooler, drier and more settled weather, though with a fair amount of fog and frost.

Some of this fog could linger all day in prone areas (such as the Vale of York), leading to quite depressed temperatures in these areas.

However, there will also be some spells of winter sunshine, making for a crisp and seasonal feeling in the run-up to Christmas.

Temperatures will range between 2 degrees in the north to 8 in the far south, though maybe struggling to rise above freezing where fog lingers.

Temperatures overnight will plummet well below freezing in many areas, with sharp frosts likely nationwide.

 

At present, I think that Christmas will remain relatively settled, although the area of high pressure may begin to retrogress into the north Atlantic.

This will result in winds turning more northerly, particularly across the north.

Instability in this pattern could lead to the outbreak of wintry showers across northern areas, possibly with some snow on the highest ground of Scotland and Northern England.

But generally, I expect Christmas Day to be bright and dry, if rather on the cold side. Temperatures ranging from 3 degrees in the extreme north to 6 or 7 in the south.

Night-time temperatures will drop below freezing nationwide, ranging from -6 to -3 degrees.

 

The final week of December sees the high continue to retrogress out into the Atlantic, leading to a northerly interlude.

Showers will become more widespread, with the continued possibility of snow in some areas, particularly on northern and eastern facing coasts.

Much of the south will remain dry, with showers few and far between here.

Temperatures will be in the range of 3-7 degrees nationwide.

 

Overall, I expect December to come out with a below average CET and average rainfall.

 

JANUARY 2011

 

I expect the New Year to dawn on a fairly settled note in the south, though with further showers of rain, sleet or snow across northern most areas. However, the area of high pressure in the Atlantic will topple back into the UK, leading to a run of westerly winds and a more unsettled and mild regime briefly.

However, a strong build of higher pressure over Scandinavia will start showing its influence in the second week, which will bring, I believe, bring the chance of a UK-wide cold event once again.

So the first week of January will see north or north westerly winds continuing, feeding showers into the northwest. These showers will continue to have a somewhat wintry flavour, particularly over higher ground.

As the area of high pressure in the Atlantic topples back over the UK, this will cut off the showers briefly during the second half of the first week and temperatures will recover slightly.

I believe temperatures will range between 4 degrees in the north to 8 in the south, possibly rising to above-average values of 10-12 during the latter part of the first week.

At this point, I anticipate a large anticyclone over Scandinavia to begin to exert an influence, as areas of lower pressure skirt along the south of the country with a southerly-tracking jet.

Initially these areas of low pressure will deliver more wind and rain, particularly from the midlands southwards.

Winds will be south westerly to westerly at first with temperatures around or just above average.

Further north under more of a high pressure influence, conditions will settle down and become quite cold as the Scandinavian High takes control.

Temperatures during the second week will range from around 1-3 degrees in the north to above-average 9-12 in the south.

I believe the Scandi block will start to really exert its influence in the third week as areas of low pressure begin to undercut the high.

Winds will be more from an easterly quarter and temperatures will become below average to perhaps well below average in many areas.

As areas of low pressure bump into the colder air, precipitation will turn more wintry in nature, even across low ground in the south.

Bitterly cold easterly winds will see maximum temperatures range from around freezing point in the north, to perhaps 2-3 degrees in the south.

With the active jet being diverted south of the UK, there is the chance of formation of channel low pressures, which will have the potential of delivery quite a significant snow event from the midlands southwards.

During the fourth week of January, I expect the Scandi High to continue to block the Atlantic to a certain extent, although it will perhaps sink slightly towards the Balkans area, leading to a change of wind direction into the south east.

This will, in turn, lead to drier conditions across the south, though still rather on the cold side.

With the air being drier though, significant spells of sunshine will make it feel quite pleasant out of the wind at times.

Across the north, there will be showers of sleet or snow at times, interspersed by spells of sunshine, but staying cold.

Maximum temperatures during the last week of January will range from around 2 degrees in the north to around 4 or 5 in the south.

 

Overall, I expect January to come out with a slightly below average CET and average rainfall.

 

 

FEBRUARY 2011

**Lower confidence for this month, and so I make no apologies for being a little more vague as the month goes on**

 

The last month of winter 2010-11 will start as January finished, with showers of rain/sleet or snow across the north and drier/brighter weather from the midlands southwards.

A deep area of low pressure will zip across northern-most areas during the end of the first week, leading to a brief, but potent northerly spell in its wake.

This northerly spell will not last too long as heights rise again to the south, bringing a spell of more zonal and mild weather towards the middle and end of the month and possibly an early end to winter here.

 

So the first week of February will begin quite unsettled across Scotland and northern England. Showers of rain or sleet (snow on the hills) will make it feel quite miserable here, although in the south with sunnier skies, it will be rather pleasant in lighter winds from the south or south east as a mid-latitude high continues to block weather systems coming in from the west.

But it will be all change as a potent Atlantic storm does its best to smash the block.

A deep area of low pressure will zip across northern most areas.

Bumping into our cold air, this will bring heavy spells of snow in Scotland and high ground in northern England. Coupled with gale-force winds, there will be blizzard-like conditions at times, especially on exposed northern and western facing coasts and hills.

Some of this rain will fall as snow across the highest ground further south.

 

It will also be very windy in the rest of England and Wales, with gale force north-westerly’s and spells of rain or snow from frontal systems.

Temperatures will range from between 2 or 3 degrees in the north to 8-10 degrees in the extreme south during this period.

 

With a strong jet more directly affecting the UK, this area of low pressure will move fairly swiftly, and in its wake, we will see this brief northerly outbreak.

Strong to gale-force northerly winds will penetrate nationwide, and it will feel bitterly cold at times.

Showers of sleet or snow, initially affecting northern areas, will also begin to penetrate further south on increasing northerly winds.

Some of these snow showers will reach as far south as the Midlands, blown along on strong northerlies.

As is always possible in an unstable airstream, this may lead to the formation of small polar low pressure areas, which could serve to pep up the wintry precipitation.

Temperatures will range from around freezing in the north to 3 or 4 degrees in the south, but feeling much colder than this with the addition of the wind-chill factor.

Overnight we will see sharp and penetrating frosts with temperatures ranging from -5 to -2 degrees.

 

Height rises to the south will begin to cut off the northerly outbreak during the third week of February as winds turn more westerly again.

This will, I believe, lead to a much milder and settled third week, with some areas in the south beginning to feel particularly mild for the time of year.

In the north, however, you will still be influenced by north-westerly’s, so colder and more unsettled here.

Areas from the north of England southwards will become quite settled, though rather cloudy, but temperatures will rise markedly, perhaps getting back into the very mild category at times.

I believe these will range from around 4 or 5 degrees in the extreme north, to perhaps as high as 13 or 14 in the south west.

The final week of February will see a continuation of milder weather across the south; though will spells of rain likely at times.

The height rises to the south will continue, with an area of high pressure from the Azores bringing much milder weather in across the whole country.

There will be frontal systems crossing the country at times, bringing showers or longer spells of rain, but also some drier and brighter interludes.

 

I believe we will see an early start to spring-like conditions in the south of the UK as winds from the south west push temperatures into the mild to warm category towards the end of the month.

In any sunnier spells, temperatures in the south could reach 12 to 14 degrees quite easily, possibly higher in places.

Even in the north, the weather turns much milder, heralding a taste of spring across northern England and southern Scotland.

Showers or longer spells of rain here at times also, but daytime temperatures ranging from 6-10 degrees.

 

Overall I expect February to come out with average temperatures and average to above average rainfall.

 

 

That's all folks. I hope you enjoyed reading this. I've taken many, many weeks compiling this forecast. It may be right, it may be wrong (or it may be something in between).

I've had a decent success rate over the last three years, and so hopefully it will continue this year too.

 

My overall summary is a winter that will prove memorable in its severity and longevity.

There will be one or two mild spells, but generally a bitterly cold winter will predominate, with overall precipitation being around about the average for winter nationwide.

The overall CET for this winter will be (in my opinion) below to well-below average, but not withstanding a couple of mild spells along the way.

 

I believe we are in a new era – a “post-modern” winter if you like. The continued solar minima has made a big impact on our climate, and I feel that more winters like this are on the cards.

 

At times, what we may see this winter will make last winter seem fairly benign, particularly in the north and east, which has the POTENTIAL to see the coldest winter in decades.

 

For what it’s worth, I expect to see a quick recovery towards the end of February, with possibly an early start to spring, with March being warmer and drier than average, possibly heralding a warmer spring in general.

 

Hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed compiling it.

 

Cheers guys.

Moomin.

So a dissapointing winter really?

Anyone looking for a white christmas should pay a visit to Glasgow

http://news.scotsman.com/news/Weather-Glasgow-has-the-white.6641696.jp

My Winter LRF for 2010/2011

DECEMBER

A very cold month. Rather drier than average with anticyclonic influences through most of the month. The cold could relax a bit during the early part of the month, but I think mid month through to the run up to Christmas could be a particularly cold period with some very severe frosts and easterly winds could bring snowfall. Christmas  could be cold and dry with more feezing temperatures. The period Christmas to New Year may well see the Atlantic attempting to break down the high pressure, so rain, sleet and snow gradually moving in from the Atlantic towards the end of the year.

JANUARY

An unsettled and cold start to the month with low pressure still attempting to displace Decembers cold anticyclone. Possibly some snow to start the year, but this becomes more confined to hills and northern areas as we move through the first week. I'm then expecting a very unsettled spell for weeks two and three as low pressure dominates the scene and bring wet and windy weather from the Atlantic. It should be milder in this phase.
The final part of the month probably brings cold weather back from the north with more frost and snow.

FEBRUARY

Very uncertain about this month, but I reakon February could start on a very cold note with widespread snow and ice. Probably then seeing an alternation of cold and milder periods through to mid mid month. Then a mild and mainly dry end to the month with high pressure taking over from the south-west.

So overall a very cold December, and average to slightly above for January and February. Winter 2010/2011 probably comes out below average due to the very cold December. The winter will also be drier than average, following the trend of quite dry winters in recent years.

Thanks Gavin. I also don't think it's going to be classic winter but there will be some cold snaps to savour

I should just say that after December I'm not at all confident in this LRF and whilst I'm expecting a milder Jan and Feb I wouldn't be *that* surprised if the cold just goes on and on and on and we end up with the coldest winter since 1963.

Thats not a forecast, just a heads up that for one reason or another I think we might be in very strange times.

I should just say that after December I'm not at all confident in this LRF and whilst I'm expecting a milder Jan and Feb I wouldn't be *that* surprised if the cold just goes on and on and on and we end up with the coldest winter since 1963.

I agree Gavin. Taking various factors into account I think the most likely outcome is broadly along the lines of your LRF. It will be interesting to see if Brian Gaze goes just for colder than average or for a prolonged freeze.

I'm not one for making serious forecasts, but here's a summary of my ideas:

December: A very cold start overall, then seeing high pressure dominating over or just west of the UK, with light winds leading to widespread frost and fog, locally very cold whilst some areas could manage to see temps climbing a few degrees above freezing if they get a sunny day. The exent of the cold depends on the extent of the snowcover at this point. Later in the month I have two possible scenarios in my mind:

One is that the UK 'rex block' style high will retrogress to Greenland and hold out there for a while, perhaps to the end of the month, before sort of toppling, only to wind up regenerating over Scandinavia.

The other sees the rex block drifting east then/or NE to wind up over Scandinavia, without moving north towards Greenland first, this leading to a continental flow from the south for a time before the winds start to veer easterly. This flow could be very cold, if the high has stayed far north enough beforehand to swing around cold air south of the UK.

January: Some very cold easterlies possible for a time. The Atlantic will also be on the attack, however, and there will be a battleground somewhere between the easterlies and the westerlies... this could well be over the UK somewhere. Potential though for a mild and wet week or two, or a very cold and dry week or two. I think that whatever happens, the block to our NE will push west later in the month, bringing either very cold easterlies or very cold, calm conditions, depening on how far west the battleground was beforehand.

February: IMO, this is beyond any form of reasonable forecasting range. Nonetheless, I will say that my gut feeling suggests high pressure tending to hang around the UK again, with a colder start and a less cold finish, the magnitude of both extremes impossible to define at this point.

I realise how open to variation this outlook is at times. Think of it more as a discussion of the potential developments, should the overall pattern of blocking highs develop as I forsee it too

Thought I would attempt a forecast for the first time.

December 2010

The  month starts on a bitter note with many areas recording very low temperatures, eventually High Pressure takes control to give us dry weather along with foggy days with some of the fog freezing and reluctant to clear in favoured spots. After 10 or so days of High Pressure dominated weather the pattern starts to change, there are signs that the High starts to slowly retreat to Greenland eventually dragging in cold Easterly winds . Christmas week is bitter for many and this sets the trend into the New Year, snow showers or longer periods of snow move into the South East and Eastern areas of the UK, spreading inland to give many areas their first white Xmas for many years.

January 2011

The Uk starts under the influence of the cold Easterlies giving a very wintry theme and the coldest period of the Winter, with strong winds and snow, blizzards could well be common place during the first 10 days of 2011, as we move towards the middle of the month High Pressure again becomes the dominant player giving some exceptionally low temperatures across the snowfields of the UK.Into the third week and for the first time in many weeks the Atlantic starts to give signs of finally coming to life. The last quarter of the month sees Low Pressure systems move in across the country giving Heavy Snow in many places as it bumps into the cold air, before much milder weather finally takes control at the end of the month.

February 2011

February sees the whole month being Atlantic dominated giving us some very mild SWly winds and heavy rain at times, this leading to flooding in places , temps rarely fall below the avg values and for some a welcome relief after the Freeze that has been experienced for many many weeks. Rainfall total above avg along with temperatures. Quite a contrast to the first 2 months of the Winter.

Remember Just For Fun

December; cold cold cold -40°C recorded

January; cold cold cold River Thames in London freezes.

February; cold cold cold Irish Sea freezes.

-40C in Altnaharra, Braemar, Aviemore, -35C in Inverness, -30C in Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, -25C in Leeds, Newcastle, Manchester, -15C in London, -10C in Isle of Scilly.

Britain experiences its coldest winter on record with the snow two foot deep in Central London.

Just for fun

December; cold cold cold -40°C recorded

January; cold cold cold River Thames in London freezes.

February; cold cold cold Irish Sea freezes.

 

-40C in Altnaharra, Braemar, Aviemore, -35C in Inverness, -30C in Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, -25C in Leeds, Newcastle, Manchester, -15C in London, -10C in Isle of Scilly.

 

Britain experiences its coldest winter on record with the snow two foot deep in Central London.

Just for fun

Be nice, but sadly a bit unlikely

December: A very cold start overall, then seeing high pressure dominating over or just west of the UK, with light winds leading to widespread frost and fog, locally very cold whilst some areas could manage to see temps climbing a few degrees above freezing if they get a sunny day. The exent of the cold depends on the extent of the snowcover at this point. Later in the month I have two possible scenarios in my mind:

One is that the UK 'rex block' style high will retrogress to Greenland and hold out there for a while, perhaps to the end of the month, before sort of toppling, only to wind up regenerating over Scandinavia.

The other sees the rex block drifting east then/or NE to wind up over Scandinavia, without moving north towards Greenland first, this leading to a continental flow from the south for a time before the winds start to veer easterly. This flow could be very cold, if the high has stayed far north enough beforehand to swing around cold air south of the UK.

Just taking a moment to look back on my thoughts for this month against what has actually happened.

It was certainly the first of my two scenarios that unfolded. I didn't see the whole polar vortex business, but then I'd never imagined such a thing happenening in all my years!

What I'm most pleased about is the last part of the outlook; a significant build of pressure over Scandinavia. That looks to be on the way from the middle of next week. I saw this as the likely final act even if the other scenario unfolded. What I didn't expect back then was to see a strong signal for this Scandi high to race west again so very soon after developing. The Atlantic does not look to be putting up much of a fight. The battleground looks to be west of the UK, leaving us in the cold and dry setup, which does in fact fall within the range of developments that I allowed for in my thoughts

So, overall, my thoughts have done very well, if I do say so myself, this being because I got the overall pattern right and did not declare that one particular manifestation of the said pattern would take place, rather choosing to cover the range of likely outcomes.

My outlook for January needs only a little modification; as the block looks to be right over us as we start the month, the push west that I farsaw - and still forsee - will lead to a period of northerly based weather. Be it a mid Atlantic block or a Greenland one, I can't be sure, but both are equally possible IMO. After this, a renewed build over Scandi would not surprise me, with the pattern repeating over and over.

Continuing to watch how developments fit in with or go against my thoughts last updated at the end of December.

We've had a sort of northerly spell of weather as I expected, though not very well defined it has to be said.

Beyond this I said I was expecting a build of pressure out to our east again. This might happen based on recent model output, but confidence is low.

I will raise my hands here and say that at the time of the last update, I wasn't expecting such a marked interlude between the vague northerly stuff and the following easterly based stuff (should that even take place) as is now underway.

However, this from my initial thoughts: "Potential though for a mild and wet week or two, or a very cold and dry week or two" is something I can just about fall back on
Okay, so just saying something might happen or something else doesn't really qualify as a prediction

Now then, calling things from here is very hard, what with all the uncertainty around. What I will say is this:

If we get the easterly from a Siberian-Scandi-UK high setup, then I reckon this will persist for perhaps a week, before we see high pressure moving into the Mid Atlantic or to Greenland.

We might, of course, just go straight to the Mid Atlantic or Greenland block. Either way, how close the high is the UK will define how dry and bright conditions are.

Something has always told me that February will be a predominantly dry and settled month, with blocking high pressure dominating very close to or over the UK for much of the month. My confidence in this actually happening is at best moderate at the moment. Since 2011 began, my gut feelings have not been quite so good at predicting what will happen with the UKs weather. I guess all the festive feasting has left it rather too relaxed