I'd still put a heatwave at 50/50 this morning both GEM and ECM look decent days 8 to 10. the ECM has 15c 850s at day 9 18c in the SE at day 10. GEM has 19c at day 10 definitely hot. We just need the low to stall a little longer in the Atlantic and a significant heatwave is possible. 

 

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I'd still put a heatwave at 50/50 this morning both GEM and ECM look decent days 8 to 10. the ECM has 15c 850s at day 9 18c in the SE at day 10.

As we saw recently, high 850s aren't the be-all-and-end-all.

The ECM ensembles (from last night, today's won't be around for a few hours) show mean T2Ms for London at around 22 or 23C, more or less average for the time of year. To get into hot conditions (which would be 28C or higher, IMO), shows a 10-20% chance depending on day.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

There are one or two really hot outliers, of course.

Regardless of heat, it'd be nice to see some rainfall down here, with only a few spits and spots since the 26th June. The models show an increasing chance of a little bit of rain come the end of the working week, but not much and given the mirages of late I wouldn't put a bet on it happening!

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Yes, messy forecasts at the moment with a lot of model spread. But very few runs lack some kind of mini heatwave, even the cool ones. Lots of transient plumes showing up, but fewer of the long hot heatwave runs this morning.

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Yes, messy forecasts at the moment with a lot of model spread. But very few runs lack some kind of mini heatwave, even the cool ones. Lots of transient plumes showing up, but fewer of the long hot heatwave runs this morning.

That said, GFS06z gives us a number of days over 30C in the SE, no days with a national max below 22C, and not much rainfall. But it’s one of the average runs in the GEFS. A lot of hotter ones.

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Really poor 12z runs - pressure rising over Central and Eastern Europe, Azores High in normal position allied to blocking at high latitude - can only mean a lot of rain for us from later this week onwards.

 

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Really poor 12z runs - pressure rising over Central and Eastern Europe, Azores High in normal position allied to blocking at high latitude - can only mean a lot of rain for us from later this week onwards.

 

I'm not sure what models you're looking at but they look far from 'really poor'. Looking at the GEFS ensembles I don't see anything particularly wet on the horizon. If it's low pressure you spotted the GFS op is way out of kilter in FI on that one.

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Quite a stormy ECM 12z. An unsettled UKMO. A hot plumy GEM. Still looking pretty messy overall.

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Horrendous ECM with the potential for more huge rainfall totals whilst the rest of Europe bakes 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

 

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Not a nice forecasted jet stream position come the end of the week, low pressure disturbances start fairly shallow and benign but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fairly widespread rainfall come the 6 to 10 day period. Thereafter anyone’s guess, some subtle groupings in the ENS need watching.

Not a nice forecasted jet stream position come the end of the week, low pressure disturbances start fairly shallow and benign but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fairly widespread rainfall come the 6 to 10 day period. Thereafter anyone’s guess, some subtle groupings in the ENS need watching.

Indeed, the disturbance at the end of this week looks to be nothing special, particularly in the south. But there's an interesting contrast between the models for a deeper feature around next Monday; GFS and BBC weather have it standing off the SW approaches and bringing up a plume of warm air albeit briefly, ECM takes it in across the UK quite quickly and GEM more slowly.

In forecasting, one must always remember that the school holidays are about to start

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Some much needed rain possible on Friday, then unsettled over the weekend with a gradual improvement, would be my interpretation at this juncture.

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I’ve been reading about Brian’s Heat Dome this morning. So cheer up all 🙂

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Much better ECM this morning. But lots of rain spikes on the GEFS ens.

It’s all a bit close to call still. Could this summer be heading towards a super over?

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Much better ECM this morning. But lots of rain spikes on the GEFS ens.

It’s all a bit close to call still. Could this summer be heading towards a super over?

Let's hope so, Tim. Unlike Ian last night, I see no reason to be downbeat about prospects for the rest of the summer from looking at this morning's output generally. No major heatwave in the offing, but no indications of a washout either.

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Some much needed rain possible on Friday, then unsettled over the weekend with a gradual improvement, would be my interpretation at this juncture.

Much needed rain? After one of the wettest Junes in history. No I think we can cope without too much more right now.

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Rain is OK as long as it falls at night when we're all tucked up in our beds.

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A lot of emotive posts in this thread, some calling the models horrendous and some calling for heatwaves. I don’t see much evidence of either, it looks like fairly typical British summer weather to me, with some warm sunshine and also some showery spells.

Certainly no sign of a train of Atlantic depressions as we have seen in some recent summers. ECM looks pretty warm next week if not verging on hot in the south.

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Much needed rain? After one of the wettest Junes in history. No I think we can cope without too much more right now.

The ground is parched round my way.

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A lot of emotive posts in this thread, some calling the models horrendous and some calling for heatwaves. I don’t see much evidence of either, it looks like fairly typical British summer weather to me, with some warm sunshine and also some showery spells.

Certainly no sign of a train of Atlantic depressions as we have seen in some recent summers. ECM looks pretty warm next week if not verging on hot in the south.

 

That would be my reading too - I find hyperbolic posts are best ignored. 

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ECM goes full heatwave tonight beauty of a run.

 22c 850s back into Blighty by day 10 . will they bring record 2m temps this time?

 

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