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Offline lanky  
#561 Posted : 16 August 2019 21:01:34(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,570
Man

Originally Posted by: richardabdn Go to Quoted Post

One of the main disadvantages of Summer Indices are they fail to take into account the 'Weekend Curse'. So often we see fine weather restricted to weekdays and the weekends are awful which is useless to those of us who work regular hours. This is purely a summer phenomenon. July 2019 and August 2018 were perfect examples of that. Seemed fairly average/mediocre on paper but because of the 'Weekend Curse' felt like utter garbage.

This month has been utter garbage no matter how you look at it. Pretty much zero decent weather whatsoever. Today was another vile day - drizzled all day long for a total of 1.4mm and this is what we are seeing constantly. Day after day of November like drizzle and light rain that is not adding up to much but is just completely writing off the summer. Intense downpours and thunder would produce higher rain totals but would, at least, feel more like summer than this grim rubbish.

10 days in a row of measurable rainfall and no end in sight so could potentially even beat the ridiculous stretch of 14 consecutive rain days from 21st June to 4th July 2012 which is the longest I have recorded in summer over the past 14 years. If that were to happen it would assure this summers place as one of the most dismally unsettled of all time. Only the very sunny second half of June has saved it from being exceptionally dull as well like so many since 2007.

I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.

If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Col  
#562 Posted : 17 August 2019 04:42:12(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post

 

I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.

If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.

The thing with the so-called 'weekend curse' is we simply notice more when poor weather coincides with the weekend. After a fine week on Friday evening cloud starts spilling in heralding a wet Saturday - Typical, you think to yourself, just in time for the weekend! But nobody notices this happening on a Tuesday night before a wet Wednesday. It would be interesting for me to have a look at my own records to see if the weekend weather really is any worse on average than during the week and hopefully disprove the weekend curse, well for my area at least. I don't think you'll ever convince Richard though!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Caz  
#563 Posted : 17 August 2019 05:33:14(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,408
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

The weekend curse is a valid point when it comes to human perception, which is more about the amount of usable weather we get in our free time!  It hasn’t really applied to me as I work short hours in the summer and have had time to enjoy many weekdays in the garden this year hence, it’s been a good summer for me.  Which is probably why human experience can be at odds with stats.  

On the other hand, stats don’t change once they’ve been recorded, whereas memory is unreliable.  When I were a lass, summers were sunnier and winters were snowier!  Actually, they weren’t but I remember the odd special occasion when the weather sticks in my mind and that clouds my judgement.  

The most extreme weather has been during my adult life, not my childhood.  In June 2007, the local river flooded for the first time in my life.  We had the heaviest and longest lasting snow in 2010, although I experienced the sixties winters.  Summer 2018 was one of the best, although I experienced 1976 and 1959.  July 25th 2019 broke temperature records here and this summer will go down in my memory as a very good one because there were so many usable days. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline KevBrads1  
#564 Posted : 17 August 2019 05:38:01(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,622
Location: Irlam

Manchester Summer Indices

1954 143

1907 147

1956 155

1912 156

1924 158

2012 164

2008 168

1987 169

1946 170

1909 171

1931 173

1978 173

1980 173

1920 174

1923 174

2007 174

1927 175

1948 176

1938 177

1922 178

2011 179

1985 180

1958 184

1972 185

1916 188

1986 189

1965 189

2016 189

1910 190

1936 190

1988 191

2010 191

1966 192

1998 192

2017 192

2019 192 (up to 16th August)

1953 193

1963 194

1993 194

2009 194

1902 195

1915 196

1981 196

1928 197

1962 197

1964 197

2004 197

1952 198

2000 198

1930 199

1974 199

1979 199

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Crepuscular Ray  
#565 Posted : 17 August 2019 07:45:18(UTC)
Crepuscular Ray

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 09/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,204
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Blackford in south Edinburgh

And it's raining yet again here in Wharfedale. Although we get some sunshine, usually afternoons, I don't think we've had a sunny start to a day this month and only 2 dry days out of 17!! Rainfall totals around these parts are now over 150mm. August is fast becoming my least favourite month!
Jerry

On the side of Ilkley Moor for the winter (b'aht'at) Weekends in Edinburgh or the Lakes [/b]

Offline richardabdn  
#566 Posted : 17 August 2019 13:48:49(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,546
Location: Aberdeen

Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post

 

I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.

If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.

 

No it's not just perception. It is a measured fact that the summer weekends see worse weather than weekdays. Only two years since 2007 - 2015 and 2017 - have seen sunnier weekend weather than weekdays and in several of the summers the difference has been considerable.

Here are my records from 2007:

Year, Weekday sun, Weekend sun, overall sun

20074.302.633.83
20084.794.044.57
20095.734.875.49
20104.934.524.82
20114.783.934.54
20123.413.313.38
20136.266.116.22
20145.724.765.44
20155.225.445.28
20164.834.534.74
20174.725.705.00
20186.955.946.66
20195.905.035.63

It doesn't average out over time as there has been an 11% difference in daily sunshine average between weekend and weekday over the 13 year period (5.18 v 4.68). More than backs up my frequent complaints about having to sit in a stifling office when it's sunny outside only to wake up to grim overcast come the weekend. Not so much of a difference with rainfall.

As for today, after a promising start it's turned to crap again and I just got soaked by a shower. No 'Weekend Curse' this month as it's just dreadful all the time.  11 days in a row of this now 

 

 

2010s - The Worst Decade for Warmth (or any other type of extreme)

Decadal High Temperatures at Dyce:

1950s: 28.9C, 7th June 1950

1960s: 27.4C, 14th July 1969

1970s: 28.4C, 25th August 1976

1980s: 28.0C, 14th July 1986

1990s: 29.7C, 21st August 1995

2000s: 29.8C, 17th July 2006

2010s: 27.2C, 22nd July 2018

Offline ARTzeman  
#567 Posted : 17 August 2019 16:15:24(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,067
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

I don't like this Moaning and gloating thread. thread. Haven't had much chance to do any mooning with all the rain of late.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline roadrunnerajn  
#568 Posted : 17 August 2019 17:20:37(UTC)
roadrunnerajn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 529

A lovely day on the Lizard Pilot Gig rowing. Early cloud gave way to blue sky and the cove at Cadgwith was sheltered from the fresh breeze.

What a change a day makes.

Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
Online johncs2016  
#569 Posted : 17 August 2019 17:51:48(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,346
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

I don't like this Moaning and gloating thread. thread. Haven't had much chance to do any mooning with all the rain of late.

Well, it won't be long now before it will be time to start the autumn moaning thread (I see that Netweather have already started their autumn moaning thread, having done so back in July). Once that it comes to that time, that would probably just be a moaning thread as I would expect there to be too many reasons for gloating there.

 

Located in the most boring part of the UK when it comes to our weather where hardly anything ever happens which is even remotely interesting in terms of our weather (other than yet more constant grey skies), and with the more interesting weather usually always occurring elsewhere in the UK apart from here.
Offline Whether Idle  
#570 Posted : 17 August 2019 18:18:23(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,237
Man
Location: Dover

Another very useable day today.  Dry thus far.

and August to date -

Mean max - 22.4

overall mean 18.2 (+0.5c)

Sunshine (poor) 100hrs

Rain - 38mm 

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline Saint Snow  
#571 Posted : 17 August 2019 21:18:07(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,868
Man
Location: St Helens

Nice day, with only a few spots of rain this morning.

Even managed a BBQ tonight.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline KevBrads1  
#572 Posted : 18 August 2019 05:36:14(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,622
Location: Irlam

17th July-16th August 2019: provisionally 201mm for the region. This wet spell all started on the 17th July

How does that compare to 31 day calendar months for the region?

Wettest January on record: 227.8mm in 1928

Wettest March on record: 178.3 mm in 1981

Wettest May on record: 141.2mm in  1924

Wettest July on record: 171.1mm in 1988

Wettest August on record: 238.4mm in  1956

Wettest October on record: 233.7 mm in 1967

Wettest December on record: 271.6mm in  2015

So that period is up there amongst the wettest spells ever recorded during summer.

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline KevBrads1  
#573 Posted : 20 August 2019 05:20:21(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,622
Location: Irlam

Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
2019 191 (up to 19th August)
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1902 195
1915 196
1981 196
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1952 198
2000 198
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline richardabdn  
#574 Posted : 20 August 2019 18:13:14(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,546
Location: Aberdeen

This has to be up there with the most stupefyingly boring and non-descript months of all time. It's utterly dire - nothing of interest is happening and it's not at all pleasant.

It's just day after day of cloudy skies, moderate temperatures and nuisance value rain. It's not reached 22C, there's been one night below 8C, no day has recorded 12 hours of sun and there has been just 38.6mm rain but only four completely dry days.

The 'blandification' of the climate intensifies 

2010s - The Worst Decade for Warmth (or any other type of extreme)

Decadal High Temperatures at Dyce:

1950s: 28.9C, 7th June 1950

1960s: 27.4C, 14th July 1969

1970s: 28.4C, 25th August 1976

1980s: 28.0C, 14th July 1986

1990s: 29.7C, 21st August 1995

2000s: 29.8C, 17th July 2006

2010s: 27.2C, 22nd July 2018

Offline LeedsLad123  
#575 Posted : 20 August 2019 20:10:23(UTC)
LeedsLad123

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,700
Man
Location: Leeds

Not been that bad here really over the past week - a couple of days were washouts but the rest were decent with only a few showers and sunny spells with temperatures of 19-20C which is a bit below average but could be worse. Rainfall is sitting at around 43-44mm here, which isn’t bad at all when the LTA for August here is 58mm. 

This month should finish comfortably warmer than average based on the current warm output. Not dissimilar to last August really but probably cloudier. Even warm summer months in recent years have tended to be rather cloudy.

Edited by user 20 August 2019 20:19:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline andy-manc  
#576 Posted : 21 August 2019 15:11:50(UTC)
andy-manc

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 23/07/2013(UTC)
Posts: 246
Location: Lowton, nr Warrington

Just had our daily cloud burst. It's become part of the summer really. No matter what the forecast is for the day, there will always be at least one spell of rain

Offline Whether Idle  
#577 Posted : 22 August 2019 06:03:10(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,237
Man
Location: Dover

Latest from Manston for August thus far... 18.0 mean, (+0.2) average max 22.3, 46mm of rain, sunshine disappointing at 127 hours.

So far then,  slightly warmer and drier than average but a dearth of sunshine, though the next 10 days may alter that stat in particular.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline severnside  
#578 Posted : 22 August 2019 10:16:15(UTC)
severnside

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2016(UTC)
Posts: 78
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Gloucestershire

Our Local station reporting about 90mm of rain and 100 hours of sunshine so far, I really don't see how the CET justifies itself at least for our area,, because of late below than average temps.

I have next week booked off, so wonder how long this settled spell will last..........

Offline Gavin D  
#579 Posted : 22 August 2019 13:10:10(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
Man
United Kingdom

A level 2 heatwave alert is in place for East of England and South East England - London is not part of the warning where they remain on level 1

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:26 on Wed 21 Aug 2019

There is a 70 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 1800 on Saturday and 0900 on Tuesday in parts of England.

High pressure will start to build over the south of England, allowing temperatures to gradually rise into the weekend, with the warmest temperatures in the south and east of England. Maximum temperatures on Saturday are likely to be near the threshold, but then a warm night is expected on Saturday night, with temperatures reaching thresholds from Saturday evening and onwards into the Bank Holiday weekend.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Offline KevBrads1  
#580 Posted : 23 August 2019 04:52:42(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,622
Location: Irlam

Wettest summer for the region, provisionally, since 2012.

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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