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May UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,089  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.9c. Anomaly -0.0c. Provisional to 24th. Metcheck 10.80c Anomaly -0.16c Netweather 11.5c Anomaly -0.16c Mean of my 10 stations 11.74c. Anomaly -0.28c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,085  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  Well this month looks like being cool throughout. No real warm up in the second half. In fact the next two days will see the highest positive temperature anomalies of the month and even those are not very impressive and are mainly due to high minimums. Now looking at potentially a sub 11C month. Current May CET estimate is 10.96C. That would be the coolest May since 2015 and only the fourth time the May CET has been below 11C since 1996. Expect a significant downward adjustment again this month. Hadley is currently running 0.43C above my estimate. Crikey! So the current CET is even worse than it looks! I am surprised because we really have had some lovely weather this month, although a few frosty nights early on and low night temps all month, so I suspect the minima have kept it down. Of course this is in my bit of the world and not in a CET area. |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,956  Location: West Hants
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The strongest late-spring stratospheric warming of the polar vortex on record really made a mess of signal-based long-range estimations this month. Only as we head into June does the resulting high-latitude blocking pattern look to relax sufficiently for the UK to start seeing some appreciably warm temps. Though mainly the blocking just focuses on the Pacific side and so 'leaves room' for ridges across the UK with LP systems moving slowly by to the north. The patterns therefore look to remain very stagnant, with little sign of the typical resurgence of westerlies in response to the rapidly increasing thermal gradient between the low-mid latitudes and the high latitudes. This raises some very interesting possibilities for June. For example, the stagnated plume of the GFS 00z is not at all unrealistic, and gives me a rough CET estimate for the opening 9 days of June that's in the low 17s. As far as I'm aware, while that would not be exceptional for July or August, it's near record territory for June - which really shows how much the 'thermal lag' plus typical return of westerlies tends to peg back the temps in the UK. As the Arctic latitudes warm faster than the lower latitudes, with increasingly early onset of spring heating via snow cover loss, I can see this thermal lag becoming increasingly weak in the decades to come, and as such June could be the summer month that sees the greatest warming trend in the UK and N. Europe generally. Given that the days are at their longest, the potential is there for June to become seriously toasty. I'd not be surprised to see (at least) one June CET in the 18s within the next two decades. |
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Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,089  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 11.1c. Anomaly 0.1c. Provisional to 25th. Metcheck 11.03c Anomaly -0.38c Netweather 11.34c Anomaly 0.04c. Mean of My 10 stations 11.95c. Difference -0.07c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,089  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 11.2c. Anomaly 0.2c. Provisional to 26th. Metcheck 11.13c Anomaly -0.28c Netweather 11.5c Anomaly 0.21c Mean of my 10 stations 12.06c. Difference 0.4c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,089  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 11.3c. Anomaly 0.3c. provisional to 27th. Metcheck 11.14c Anomaly 0.62c Netweather 11.53c Anomaly 0.23c. Mean of my 10 stations 12.03c. Difference 0 1c. Forest Town Mansfield 11.7c. Anomaly -1.15 Using a 6-year average. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,089  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 11.3c. Anomaly 0.3c. Provisional to 28th. Metcheck 11.13c Anomaly -0.28c Netweather 11,54c Anomaly 0.25c Mean of my 10 stations 12.03c. Difference 0.01c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,400 Location: Central Southern England
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Very interesting to see how this one pans out; tonight and tomorrow night look pretty warm for the time of year right across the CET region; tomorrow and Friday could potentially see some warm days too. Remember it only takes a 20C max and 12C min to give us a 16C CET day- but with only two days to play with, that would give an excess over the current figure of <10, so about .3 in overall terms. IF HadCET is correct (and remember GW suspects it's too high at the moment and will be downjusted) then we'd perhaps end on 11.5-11.6. Still too low for my own bet, but a smaller gap than I'd feared say a week ago. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 1,260 Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Good to see the figure at least holding steady. The cooler weather for this week doesn't seem to be as potent/prolonged as was once forecast. In addition there should be some very mild (even warm) nights coming up which should help nudge the figure higher, despite daytime maxes in the low 20s being hardly notable for late May. It's just a pity May doesn't have 32 days so it could include the very warm/hot temps for Saturday. But then of course we have the downgrade. It helped me out in April but won't in May. Why does there always seem to be a downgrade, is it simply the correction for the urban heat island effect? Edited by user 29 May 2019 19:57:09(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 20,500 Location: N.Y.Moors
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Month will end on 9.1C (-1.2C) here. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,400 Location: Central Southern England
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At time of looking yesterday's CET given as 11.0°C but update for whole month not on site yet. Will be 11.3 or 11.2 |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC) Posts: 17,129  
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Significant rain for parts of the west over the next 10-day well over 100mm in parts of NW Scotland even the dust bowl south east sees some useful rain
SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,085  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Wrong thread Gavin!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,089  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Originally Posted by: Gavin D  Significant rain for parts of the west over the next 10-day well over 100mm in parts of NW Scotland even the dust bowl south east sees some useful rain
Curbs the CET for a couple of Days. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,089  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 11.3c. Anomaly 0.2c. Provisional to 29th. Metcheck 11.21c. Anomaly -0.20c Netweather 11.54c Anomaly 0.25c Mean of my 10 Watched stations 12.09c Difference 0.07c. Edited by user 31 May 2019 11:31:01(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC) Posts: 17,129  
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Wrong thread Gavin!  Oops It it's seems a weather forum now can't post weather charts in a dedicated thread Bonkers 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,085  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Gavin D  Oops It it's seems a weather forum now can't post weather charts in a dedicated thread Bonkers  I just thought it odd to post June rainfall charts in the May CET thread, but if you meant to, that’s my mistake not yours.  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,400 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 11.03c. Anomaly 0.2c. Provisional to 29th. Metcheck 11.21c. Anomaly -0.20c Netweather 11.54c Anomaly 0.25c Mean of my 10 Watched stations 12.09c Difference 0.07c. Just for clarity, that's 11.3°C. Cheers Art. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 25,254 Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  Very interesting to see how this one pans out; tonight and tomorrow night look pretty warm for the time of year right across the CET region; tomorrow and Friday could potentially see some warm days too. Remember it only takes a 20C max and 12C min to give us a 16C CET day- but with only two days to play with, that would give an excess over the current figure of <10, so about .3 in overall terms. IF HadCET is correct (and remember GW suspects it's too high at the moment and will be downjusted) then we'd perhaps end on 11.5-11.6. Still too low for my own bet, but a smaller gap than I'd feared say a week ago. Nice if it was 11.5C I'd be bang on. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 122  Location: Berkhamsted, Herts
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Average now seems cool after so many warm Mays... out of interest does anyone have the highest temp for the month so far and is it the lowest for May for some time as I am kind of thinking it must be given that even 1996 managed to go above 25c at the end ?
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