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Offline Global Warming  
#21 Posted : 04 May 2019 15:44:10(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

Here is the list of predictions for May


Link to full sized table


Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline johncs2016  
#22 Posted : 04 May 2019 16:15:23(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 5,259
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post


Latest update on the May CET. Very cold over the next few days. The mean will be down in the mid 8's. 


Temperatures don't get back above average until Monday 13th. It is likely to be at least the 21st before we get up to the 1981-2010 mean. The current forecast temperatures for the next couple of nights that are baked into these numbers do not I think fully take into account how cold it will be tonight and again tomorrow night. So it does look like a very chilly first half of May.





From what I am seeing seeing here, my rather warm estimate for this month is already starting to look like being in a lot of trouble unless it rather unexpectedly warms up very soon.


Having said that though, this is the weather after all and regardless of what the models tell us, anything can end up happening, so I'm not giving up hope just yet.


 

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS
EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)
Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)
Altitude: 57m above mean sea level
EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)
Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)
Altitude: 33m above mean sea level
ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)
Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)
Altitude: 26m above mean sea level
Offline ARTzeman  
#23 Posted : 05 May 2019 10:58:59(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck         9.72c.     Anomaly    -2.68c


Netweather      9.36c.     Anomaly    -1.95c


Mean of my 10 stations  9.24c.  Difference  -2.78c.


On Netweather CET it was mentioned Hadley not giving out the updates anymore. Do not know if this is correct.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#24 Posted : 05 May 2019 12:36:11(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather desk advisor Met Office Exeter said it would update the CET soon.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Global Warming  
#25 Posted : 05 May 2019 12:45:00(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

Thanks ART. 


I don't for one moment believe they would ever stop making the CET data publicly available. Equally I don't take much notice of what is said over on NW.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Online Hungry Tiger  
#26 Posted : 05 May 2019 13:16:52(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,776
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


Emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather desk advisor Met Office Exeter said it would update the CET soon.



Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.
Offline Caz  
#27 Posted : 05 May 2019 14:33:39(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,274
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post


From what I am seeing seeing here, my rather warm estimate for this month is already starting to look like being in a lot of trouble unless it rather unexpectedly warms up very soon.


Having said that though, this is the weather after all and regardless of what the models tell us, anything can end up happening, so I'm not giving up hope just yet.


No, don’t give up!    I’m only a little below so and a very warm second half could see us both in contention!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Bertwhistle  
#28 Posted : 05 May 2019 14:44:20(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,718
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


Emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather desk advisor Met Office Exeter said it would update the CET soon.



A bold stroke Art- thanks for doing it. 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake!
Offline ARTzeman  
#29 Posted : 06 May 2019 11:03:24(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

No Met Office Update......


Metcheck           8.54c.       Anomaly     -2.87c.


Netweather        8.93c.       Anomaly     -2.38c.


mean of my 10 stations   9.13c. Difference -2.89c.   



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline four  
#30 Posted : 06 May 2019 15:39:21(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,399
Location: N.Y.Moors

First week here has been 6.8C (-3.4C) - it can only go up.
Offline Caz  
#31 Posted : 06 May 2019 15:43:08(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,274
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post


 


A bold stroke Art- thanks for doing it. 


 That was an artful play on words Bertie!  


Ditto!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Stormchaser  
#32 Posted : 06 May 2019 20:12:47(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Cheers Art 


From the estimated estimate of starting CET today (...), the latest two GFS runs (06z and 12z) have the CET wallowing around in the low 8s until 13th before it finally gets its act together and starts climbing with some gusto.


The 06z's generally warm pattern thereafter takes the CET up to very nearly the 11s by 22nd (so close to the LTA), while the 12z's warm to very warm pattern sends it soaring into the high 11s - a big enough climb that I suspect I'd prove to be too low with the final CET if things turned out that way.


 


It's been a striking turnaround after a couple of days of runs choosing to keep a cool to near-average flow from the NE to E as the predominant pattern. Still time for a swing back the other way but the trend warmer has been within expectations given the very powerful convectively coupled Kelvin wave propagating from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.


That CCKW has in fact exceeded what I anticipated, and looks to produce some suitably extreme amplification of the mid-high latitude weather patterns next week. Part of this will be a Spanish plume of intensity rarely seen in mid-May;


 


Not easy to resolve from the shading but I think some spots are hitting the mid-high 30s in Spain and Portugal there. More typical of a heatwave in mid-July than mid-May! A striking contrast to the east as well.

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Offline ARTzeman  
#33 Posted : 07 May 2019 11:21:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

No Met Office Update. 


Metcheck         8.54c.      Anomaly     -2.90c.


Netweather      8.8c.        Anomaly     -2.51c


My 10 stations  9.04c.      Difference   -2.98c.             



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Caz  
#34 Posted : 07 May 2019 18:28:08(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,274
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Cheers SC!  I need something like that given I guessed 12.5c.  I just hope it doesn’t swing back again at month end!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Global Warming  
#35 Posted : 07 May 2019 20:29:27(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post


 


Current estimate of the CET for the bank holiday Monday is 7.3C. So not the coldest but not far off. It will depend on how cold it is tomorrow night. Could well be nearer 7C in which case it could be the third coldest in the list above.


The CET for tomorrow (Sunday) is expected to be no higher than 6.5C and I suspect it will in fact be nearer 6C as I expect it to be very cold tonight.


So it will certainly be one of the coldest May Day bank holidays on record.



My estimate of the CET for the bank holiday Monday is 7.23C so equal third coldest May Day bank holiday. The CET for Sunday was just 6.31C.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#36 Posted : 07 May 2019 20:59:24(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met office Hadley have Updated.     APRIL    9.1c    Anomaly     1.2c.


May     8.8c.   Anomaly   -1.1c. Provisional to 6th.


Worth the wait....


 

Edited by user 07 May 2019 21:06:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#37 Posted : 08 May 2019 09:53:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,904
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

HADOBS Met Office          8.8c.      Anomaly      -1.1c.  Provisional to 7th.


Metcheck                          8.64c     Anomaly      -2.76c


Netweather                       8.92c     Anomaly      -2.39c 


man of my 10 stations 9.51c.  Difference  -2.51c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Online Hungry Tiger  
#38 Posted : 08 May 2019 14:30:34(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,776
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


HADOBS Met Office          8.8c.      Anomaly      -1.1c.  Provisional to 7th.


Metcheck                          8.64c     Anomaly      -2.76c


Netweather                       8.92c     Anomaly      -2.39c 


man of my 10 stations 9.51c.  Difference  -2.51c. 



Not surprised its below normal. First week here has been foul.


 

Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.
Offline four  
#39 Posted : 08 May 2019 14:40:24(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,399
Location: N.Y.Moors

6.4C (-3.8C) here to date, probably creeping up after tomorrow.
Offline johncs2016  
#40 Posted : 08 May 2019 14:56:35(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,259
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


 


Not surprised its below normal. First week here has been foul.


 



Yep. A really big warm-up is needed very soon if we are to get anywhere close to my official prediction for this month on this forum.


Of course, I don't actually live in the CET area but even here, today has given us a very good example of why the CET is running so low during this month at the moment as the temperature here in Edinburgh hasn't got above 8°C during today which even for here in Scotland, is absolutely abysmal for this time of the year. 


 

Edited by user 08 May 2019 15:02:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS
EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)
Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)
Altitude: 57m above mean sea level
EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)
Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)
Altitude: 33m above mean sea level
ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)
Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)
Altitude: 26m above mean sea level
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