Thanks as always for your captivating stat-dives GW 

I see I might do pretty well for the CET error this month, but to be honest that'll be due to a less warm than anticipated final third cancelling out a less cool than indicated (by modelling and teleconnections) middle-third, so it seems it was simply my turn to net a bit of luck.

Just plugged in the GFS 12z numbers for the first half of May out of interest.

A sharp downward dive early on due to the Arctic incursion, with a couple of nights reaching freezing or close to it very widely, and May (the) 4th (be with you) struggling to make double digits despite plenty of sun (suspicious much...?!), bottoming the CET out at just 7.6*C as of 5th. 

Then a steady climb as some near-average temperatures occur, as part of a cyclonic spell of weather. CET reaches the high 8s by 10th.

Then, some warmer than average conditions arrive from the southeast, and the CET is approaching the mid-10s as of 14th. A respectable recovery from that unusually chilly start. 

So uh... no clear indications for an overall temp anomaly for May's first half. How helpful .

Thank you GW.  An early Spring break in Whitby wouldn’t be a bad thing then and I see Sheffield didn’t do too badly during March either.  

SC, looks like I got lucky this month too!  I suppose it has to be our turn eventually and I have a lot of catching up to do.  May is looking difficult and I can’t bring myself to put much faith in the models at the moment!   

No update from Met Office Hadley

Metcheck       8.72c.      Anomaly     0.70c.

Netweather    9.36c.      Anomaly     1.27c.

mean of My 10  9.87c.  Difference 0.62c.

Hadley is very quiet at the moment so there might be a delay in releasing the final official data for the month. 

My calculations have a final figure of 9.03C for April. So 1C above the 1971-2000 mean and 0.5C above the 1981-2010 mean.

A cool final 6 days of the month scuppered my prediction. 

My calculations have a final figure of 9.03C for April. So 1C above the 1971-2000 mean and 0.5C above the 1981-2010 mean.

A cool final 6 days of the month scuppered my prediction. 

If it does turn out to be 9.03c, then a cool final 6 days of the month rescued my prediction 

For the end of April.

Metcheck                8.79c.   Anomaly     0.79c

Netweather             9.41c.   Anomaly     1.32c 

Maen of my 10 stations     9.93c.  Difference  0.68c.  Using a 6 - Year Average. 

Finished on 7.9(+0.7C) here solely due to the relentless horrific mild cloudy nights. Daytime temperatures were suppressed for the most part though the two days exceeding 20C helped mask how bad it was. These two days added 0.7C onto the max but it still wasn't enough to exceed the average, coming in at equal to average 10.9C despite only 11 days being warmer than average compared to 18 colder than average.

Temperatures bear testimony to the abnormal and extreme amount of wind from the vile SE quarter (yet again). Kinloss on the Moray Firth, which is sheltered from the filth, has an long term average max of only 0.7C higher than here but recorded a mean max some 3.5C higher this month at 14.4C. This was higher than just about all stations in Northern England and the Midlands as well as some in Southern England showing how ridiculous the synoptics were

Hadley has published final data to the 27th of April so we are missing 3 days. As at the 27th the Hadley CET mean was 9.01C compared to my estimate of 8.95C at the same time. That would suggest the final number is likely to be close to 9.1C.

I could live with 9.1c 😉

I wouldn’t do too badly from that either!  

Finished on 7.9(+0.7C) here solely due to the relentless horrific mild cloudy nights. Daytime temperatures were suppressed for the most part though the two days exceeding 20C helped mask how bad it was. These two days added 0.7C onto the max but it still wasn't enough to exceed the average, coming in at equal to average 10.9C despite only 11 days being warmer than average compared to 18 colder than average.

Only you could manage to put a negative spin on two 20C+ days in Aberdeen in April, which surely can't happen all that often.

  

I wouldn’t do too badly from that either!  

Likewise. I think I would probably be in top spot for the year so far if it got that low.

Still nothing from Hadley. Either they are on strike or the person responsible has gone on holiday and left no cover!

I will publish the final April numbers once Hadley can be bothered to make them available.

Still nothing from Hadley. Either they are on strike or the person responsible has gone on holiday and left no cover!

I will publish the final April numbers once Hadley can be bothered to make them available.

As I mentioned in this month's thread, the final CET figure for any given month is usually always published by Hadley before the Met Office in general releases its various maps ans statistics for the whole of the UK for that month (or season if we have just entered into a new season), so it is very strange that this hasn't been the case on this occasion.

Of course, this will keep in suspense for that bit longer than normal when it comes to the final outcomes for the April competition as we would normally have known by now, who had won any given previous month's competition.

Nevertheless, I'm sure that for at least one member, that wait will be more than worthwhile in the end.

Still no Hadley from April, but has anyone got an insight into 28th-30th from the 3 key CET stations?

I think it'll be Tuesday before Hadley updates the CET now.

Suspect GW will be there or there-abous at 9.0 or 9.1

I think it'll be Tuesday before Hadley updates the CET now.

Suspect GW will be there or there-abous at 9.0 or 9.1

Thanks Gav; not a complete disaster for me- about .3 or .4 out- but could have been better!

Still no Hadley from April, but has anyone got an insight into 28th-30th from the 3 key CET stations?

My calculations are 9.52C for the 28th, 9.39C for the 29th and 10.22C for the 30th.

Add those to the official figures for 1st - 27th and you get 9.08C as a final figure.