Latest charts for March. The CET is likely to oscillate around 7.5C overt the next 10 days before potentially climbing again in the final week of the month if high pressure begins to move in. I think a CET above 8C is still quite likely based the current output. If cooler conditions persist for longer then something nearer the mid 7's might be more likely.

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Thanks GW.

Surprised it's holding up so well! 

Apologies for the delay. Here is the list of predictions for March.

Link to full size chart

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Thanks GW! Great effort as ever. Much appreciated

Met Office Hadley        7.3c    Anomaly    2.3c provisional to 10yh.

Metcheck                    7.07c   Anomaly     0.86c    

Netweather                 7.87c   Anomaly     1.58c

Man of my 10 stations  7.93c   Anomaly     1.58c.

Apologies for the delay. Here is the list of predictions for March.

A more definite upward trend in the most likely final CET now.

The current run of more northerly-influenced weather is more intermittent and shorter-lived than the late Feb guidance was in favour of, and now there looks to be a quicker than usual shift toward April-like Nino patterns in the works (typical ridge location shifts east, from the mid-Atlantic to the UK). Unclear whether it will locate in a position that brings cold nights or not but even if it does, the diurnal means may still be in the 8s or more given how much the sun can achieve in late March (most places can potentially go from sub zero to the low 20s).

I should probably start routinely adding an extra 1*C onto whatever the models and teleconnections suggest! 

Met Office Hadley        7.2c.      Anomaly     2.1c. provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                     7.08c      Anomaly    0.92c

Netweather                  7.6c        Anomaly    1.48c

Mean of my 10 stations   7.96c      Anomaly    1.58c.  

Met Office Hadley        7.2c.     Anomaly     2.1c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                     6.97c    Anomaly     0.81c

Netweather                  7.69c    Anomaly     1.4c

Cheadle Hulme             7.2c     Anomaly      0.85c

Hexam                         5.9c     Anomaly      0.5c

Linford                         8.4c     Anomaly      2.34c

Treviskey Redruth         8.7c     Anomaly       1.04c

Mean of my watched 10 stations   7.82c.  Difference  1.47c.

Met Office Hadley        7.1c      Anomaly      2.0c  provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                     7.05c    Anomaly      0.89c

Netweather                  7.72c    Anomaly      1.43c

Hexam                         6.2c     Anomaly       0.8c

Forest Town Mansfield    7.3c     Anomaly       1.24c

Treviskey Redruth          8.9c     Anomaly       1.24c.

Mean Of My 10 stations  8.04c. Difference  1.69c.          

Well it doesn’t seem to be moving much but then again, the weather’s hardly changed at all this week!  I’m happy that it’s stuck close to my guess for now, at least I’m nearly right for a few days but no doubt it will change soon! 

Unusually the Hadley provisional CET is actually lower than my estimate this month so far.

Latest output suggests the CET may climb back above 8C as head towards the final few days of the month. We probably won't get as high as the 8.7C in 2017. But we could beat the 8.3C of 2012.

Current estimate is 8.11C on the 28th

Unusually the Hadley provisional CET is actually lower than my estimate this month so far.

Latest output suggests the CET may climb back above 8C as head towards the final few days of the month. We probably won't get as high as the 8.7C in 2017. But we could beat the 8.3C of 2012.

Current estimate is 8.11C on the 28th

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Hmm, Im not dismissing entirely a finishing number closer around 7.5c.  Plenty of water left to flow under the bridge yet with more than half the month left to elapse.  Given the volatility of the output Id say things remain "up for grabs", though i would concede a finish closer to 8 looks more likely now than one closer to 7.

Met Office Hadley           7.3c.         Anomaly    2.2c.  Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       7.25c         Anomaly    1.09c

Netweather                    7.86c         Anomaly    1.57c

Hexham                         6.4c          Anomaly     1.0c

Canvey Island                 9.0c          Anomaly     1.9c

Peasedown St John          9.7c.         Anomaly     3.77c

Treviskey Redruth            9.1c          Anomaly     1.44c

Forest Town Mansfield      7.5c         Anomaly     1.92c

Mean of my 10             8.2c.   Difference    1.85c.             

 

Hmm, Im not dismissing entirely a finishing number closer around 7.5c.  Plenty of water left to flow under the bridge yet with more than half the month left to elapse.  Given the volatility of the output Id say things remain "up for grabs", though i would concede a finish closer to 8 looks more likely now than one closer to 7.

The models are all singing from the same hymn sheet though, with high pressure asserting itself next week and with the prospect of warmer weather at least by day. Nights may be cool so the diurnal range may be significant, but there is no significant colder weather indicated to blunt the CET in the final third of the month.

Highly likely then this March may finish in the 'Top Ten' since 1659. Where it exactly ends up will be very interesting. Here are the Top Ten March months since 1659:

1)  9.2 1957

2)  9.1 1938

3)  8.7 2017

4)  8.4 1997

5)  8.3 2012, 1990, 1948

8)  8.2 1961, 1750

10) 8.1 1734

If it does reach 8.3 as GW suggests then it will be joint fifth with 2012, 1990 and 1948. Either way a remarkable March and fully bears out the earlier prediction by GW that a mild February is invariably followed by a mild March.

Hmm, Im not dismissing entirely a finishing number closer around 7.5c. 

Fingers crossed

 

The models are all singing from the same hymn sheet though, with high pressure asserting itself next week and with the prospect of warmer weather at least by day. Nights may be cool so the diurnal range may be significant, but there is no significant colder weather indicated to blunt the CET in the final third of the month.

Highly likely then this March may finish in the 'Top Ten' since 1659. Where it exactly ends up will be very interesting. Here are the Top Ten March months since 1659:

1)  9.2 1957

2)  9.1 1938

3)  8.7 2017

4)  8.4 1997

5)  8.3 2012, 1990, 1948

8)  8.2 1961, 1750

10) 8.1 1734

 

If it does reach 8.3 as GW suggests then it will be joint fifth with 2012, 1990 and 1948. Either way a remarkable March and fully bears out the earlier prediction by GW that a mild February is invariably followed by a mild March.

 

 

I don't think that's quite what GW predicted.

In any case, it's wrong. 2001: slightly below average after a slightly mild Feb.

1995: almost average after a very mild Feb.

The CET averages, furthermore,  are still based on 1961-90 averages.

The March average has soared since 1990. Only 6 years have had a mean March CET below that quoted figure. The true average may be almost a degree above that for the last 30 years.

Truth is, the mild Februaries have been predominantly followed by mild Marches.

And...the cold Februaries have too (1991, 1994, 2010, 2012) because there haven't been that many cooler Marches.

Over the past few sets of runs, an increasing appetite in the modelling for the ridge to keep pulling back west at times allowing colder air into the mix has caught my eye - the GFS as usual makes the most of this with final estimates in the mid-7s from the 00z (confirming WI's suspicion of this possibility) and the low-7s from the 12z.

ECM more muted as it typically is - and experience suggests this is more realistic. So perhaps we'd finish in the high 7s to low 8s if today's shift holds steady, and mid-high 7s if trends continue further i.e. the ridges pull back west even more. That's using GW's starting estimates which just had to defy the norm be higher than the Hadley ones didn't they .

Potentially a bit of something for everyone, as in between the high looks to be far enough east, and with enough warm air advection across the UK, to bring some pleasant mid-high teens maximums.

I wonder if I'm being a bit presumptuous there though. From the perspective of a springtime warmth seeker at heart, I'm a bit concerned by the new trend of late. Talk about a conflict of interests! 

Met Office Hadley        7.4c       Anomaly       2.3c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                     7.42c     Anomaly       1.26c

Netweather                  8.04c     Anomaly       1.75c

Canvey Island               9.2c      Anomaly       2.1c

Cheadle Hulme             7.5c      Anomaly       1.15c

Clevedon Weather         9.1c     Anomaly       1.89c

Darwen                        7.6c     Anomaly        1.38c

Hexham                       6.1c     Anomaly        0.7c

Linford                         9.0c     Anomaly        2.94c

Mount Sorrel                7.6c     Anomaly         1.54c

Forest Town Mansfield   7.6c     Anomaly         1.54c

Peasedown St John       9.9c     Anomaly         3.97c

Treviskey Redruth         9.2c     Anomaly         1.54c

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations Using A 6-Year Average   8.28c.  Difference 1.96c.                            

Met Office Hadley        7.6c.      Anomaly        2.3c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                    7.42c      Anomaly        1.26c 

Netweather                 8.15c      Anomaly        1.86c

Hexham                      6.2c       Anomaly         0.8c

Forest Town Mansfield  7.4c    Anomaly     1.82c

Treviskey Redruth   8.9c   Anomaly   1.24c.

Mean of my 10    8.18c  Difference    1.83c.

Amazing if this March were to finish in the top 10 as it certainly hasn’t felt warm to me! I suppose it’s because of that incredible February warm spell making March feel colder.