Brian Gaze
01 March 2019 08:48:15

The TWO spring forecast will be issued later today.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast


The Met Office Contingency Planners outlook:


Temperature summary


For March and March-April-May as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures.
Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10%,
and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these
categories is 20%).


Precipitation summary


For March, and March-April-May as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar.


Source: UK Met Office


 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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idj20
01 March 2019 11:08:22

Got a little confused with all the same themed threads springing up, must have been three or four on the bounce.

See what I did there?


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ARTzeman
01 March 2019 14:03:37

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Got a little confused with all the same themed threads springing up, must have been three or four on the bounce.

See what I did there?



Missed it!  Will catch it on the rebound provided winter type happenings do not come our way. 






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Others just get wet.
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johncs2016
02 March 2019 19:56:42

Well this spring is certainly starting off on a rather interesting note and in fact, this change to more unsettled conditions and a more Atlantic-driven regime is happening just as SEPA has now raised the water scarcity warning levels from medium to high in the NE of Scotland, and from low to medium here in SE Scotland due to the lack of winter rainfall according this latest report.


If the latest forecasts are right though, this could have the potential to end up being like the sort of situation where the Government appoints a Drought Secretary only for then to end up being such a massive deluge that there is now, no longer any need for any such measures to be taken.


However, it will be interesting now to see whether these forecasts do end up being right (although it will take some doing to properly make up that rainfall deficit which has built up since before last summer) and we do end up getting all of that much needed rainfall, or whether we actually just end up quickly going back to high pressure in the same manner in which has always been happening up until now (that is what the CFS is going for just now, although that is only really an outlier for now with very little support from the other models).


If this is the start of a pattern change towards a much wetter regime, I only hope that this then doesn't carry on into the summer and thus, provide us with a poor summer as a result. To me, it would just be like the thing if that was what ended up happening.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Gray-Wolf
12 March 2019 23:12:09

Well if by the end of the period we have seen HP constantly pushing in a flattening the Atlantic then I'll be even more convinced that we are on for a heck of a Summer!


I feel sorry for Scotland/N.I. as they might not have as much of the 'magic HP shield' as those to the S/SE but then here in the NW we bore the brunt of the washout years whilst the North we spared?


Fair is fair surely?


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