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Online David M Porter  
#121 Posted : 30 January 2019 14:57:14(UTC)
David M Porter

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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


 


As I said. They will gradually water this down, slowly but surely, so they avoid being ridiculed by most of the general public. This climbdown has been long in arriving but will slowly but surely gather pace and drop the cold ideas. This time next week it will be all but gone.



If you are proved correct, then hats off to you.


However, if come the end of February you have been proved wrong, then you better be ready for a backlash Kieren!

Boris Johnson: "Take it on the chin" will haunt him big time at the next General Election.
Offline moomin75  
#122 Posted : 30 January 2019 14:58:56(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post


 


If you are proved correct, then hats off to you.


However, if come the end of February you have been proved wrong, then you better be ready for a backlash Kieren!


You know me David. I would LOVE to be wrong and face a backlash. I'll go and get my tin hat ready just in case.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#123 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:04:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


 


As I said. They will gradually water this down, slowly but surely, so they avoid being ridiculed by most of the general public. This climbdown has been long in arriving but will slowly but surely gather pace and drop the cold ideas. This time next week it will be all but gone.



 


My hunch is that the Met update will actually flip cold again very soon looking at the ECM and GFS ensembles its odds on a decent Scandi high in the next 10 to 15 days. I'd punt for a sub 2.5c cet.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline moomin75  
#124 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:05:18(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


 


 


My hunch is that the Met update will actually flip cold again very soon looking at the ECM and GFS ensembles its odds on a decent Scandi high in the next 10 to 15 days. I'd punt for a sub 2.5c cet.


 


Hope you are right but I doubt it very much.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Offline Solar Cycles  
#125 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:07:27(UTC)
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Most here have said for weeks that the MetO long rangers were completely out of synch with what the short terms models were showing post 7-10 days. It’s been an abysmal fail and highlights all too well the follies of forecasting beyond seven days. At the end of the day beyond the seven day timeframe they’re no bettter than most in here and that’s not a dig at them but how long range forecasting in general is a crock of sh*t.
Offline ballamar  
#126 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:08:15(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


 


As I said. They will gradually water this down, slowly but surely, so they avoid being ridiculed by most of the general public. This climbdown has been long in arriving but will slowly but surely gather pace and drop the cold ideas. This time next week it will be all but gone.



 


depends if the signal for cold pops up again only stronger. They will still simply follow their model and go by this - no one can predict with any confidence. If it disappears then lucky guess

Offline tallyho_83  
#127 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:09:14(UTC)
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Would be furious if this was the case! - a few miles away from Exeter and they get 5-10cms and Exeter get's cold rain!???


Mind you this is still an upgrade from yesterdays forecast which was for no accumulations of snow at all and this morning they were going for 1-3cms and now Chris Fawkes has gone for 5 to 10cms of snow! Except Exeter? I know it is just how it is in times stamp but would be an almighty failure if most of the country got 5 -10cms when EXETER saw cold rain!?


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Edited by user 30 January 2019 15:10:43(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#128 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:12:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


Hope you are right but I doubt it very much.



 


We'll soon find out. It's all good fun it doesn't matter if us amateurs get it wrong. I'm going very cold Spring,  very hot summer.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline moomin75  
#129 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:34:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


 


 


We'll soon find out. It's all good fun it doesn't matter if us amateurs get it wrong. I'm going very cold Spring,  very hot summer.


 


That would do me. As long as it's dry. Cricket last summer was magnificent with just one rained off game in the whole summer. Unheard of in this neck of the woods.

Witney, Oxfordshire
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Offline Essan  
#130 Posted : 30 January 2019 15:45:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


 As I said. They will gradually water this down, slowly but surely, so they avoid being ridiculed by most of the general public.




Until they read it in the Telegraph most of the general public won't even know the MetO issued a monthly outlook     But I agree, some bored hack is sure to point it out next time the news breaks that someone at the MetO gets a pay rise for their excellent, life saving, work cyclone tracking in the eastern pacific.

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Offline tallyho_83  
#131 Posted : 30 January 2019 16:46:02(UTC)
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Met Office 10 day trend:


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Offline Rob K  
#132 Posted : 30 January 2019 16:59:49(UTC)
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Warnings out for freezing fog tonight across large parts of England.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
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Offline moomin75  
#133 Posted : 30 January 2019 17:07:44(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post
Met Office 10 day trend:

https://youtu.be/LE4aK5phKTo
So basically, it is going to get milder......The Met Office text forecast will continue to backtrack. Not a chance of an Easterly dominated month, in fact, I doubt we will see much in the way of winds from the East all month. More likely an Atlantic dominated February. Proves how poor the LRFs have been this winter - the winter that never was!

Witney, Oxfordshire
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Offline Arcus  
#134 Posted : 30 January 2019 17:14:45(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
Warnings out for freezing fog tonight across large parts of England.


I have to say that yellow area is very poorly defined up here - the Vale of York has narrowed considerably.

Ben,
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Online David M Porter  
#135 Posted : 30 January 2019 17:44:21(UTC)
David M Porter

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Part of me has recently been wishing that I had thought to save the daily MetO outlooks from much of February last year. My recollection is that they stuck solidly with the arrival of the Beast at the end of the month even during the few days around mid-month when the GFS and ECM runs were wobbling somewhat.


What I remember the most from that period was one evening in mid-Feb when the GFS 12z brought the atlantic back for the end of the month and Ian Brown said "It'd game over for this easterly". The ECM 12z must have heard him as it then showed the Beast moving in!

Boris Johnson: "Take it on the chin" will haunt him big time at the next General Election.
Online Snow Hoper  
#136 Posted : 30 January 2019 20:49:49(UTC)
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Online Gavin D  
#137 Posted : 30 January 2019 21:34:50(UTC)
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The same met office which were going on about easterly winds for weeks now saying southwesterly winds later next week with no real signs of an easterly

Hmm...
Offline moomin75  
#138 Posted : 30 January 2019 22:08:41(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post
The same met office which were going on about easterly winds for weeks now saying southwesterly winds later next week with no real signs of an easterly

Hmm...
The backtrack continues apace. Watch the written LRF continue to change to milder over the next few days. Game over for February and after Tomorrow that is your lot for much of the country.

Witney, Oxfordshire
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Online David M Porter  
#139 Posted : 30 January 2019 22:44:42(UTC)
David M Porter

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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post


The backtrack continues apace. Watch the written LRF continue to change to milder over the next few days. Game over for February and after Tomorrow that is your lot for much of the country.



Not the right thread for discussing the models & it is in far off FI anyway, but this chart from the GFS 12z op run earlier this evening would suggest otherwise:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


 

Edited by user 30 January 2019 22:47:09(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Boris Johnson: "Take it on the chin" will haunt him big time at the next General Election.
Offline tallyho_83  
#140 Posted : 30 January 2019 23:21:17(UTC)
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Bring it on - either the LOW is taking more of a southerly track or the rain looks heavier to produce evaporative cooling and turn rain to snow even as far south as Plymouth, south Devon?



 



 


I'll take that any day!  - But law of sods is that we will get a sleety mixture of rain to snow and wet snow with ground too wet for snow to settle!



 


NOW Look at this upgrade for the south on Friday? Additional and more prolonged snow showers across the south - maybe to top up' additional snow cover? - This would be x2 to days snow would be falling in the south if this verifies and this persistent area of snow in the south was not well picked up by models and or any BBC forecast a few days ago! - Plus remember the weather for the week ahead end of last week or was it Sunday? When I asked one member if they knew her name? - Well, it was Alina Jenkins and she said it will most likely turn milder by end of next week (now this week!) - When in fact the milder sector lost the war and the LP is sinking southwards on Thursday night, linger off English channel and heading into France and Bay of Biscay and NOT going northwards!! Below pic demonstrates this well! The Met Office are poor at calling an easterly but well done to the Met office short to medium-range about low's taking southerly tracks into the bay of biscay and as they move northwards at times saying the fact that there could be more significant rain or snow!


If tomorrow does materialise and we are lucky then tomorrow 31st Jan - tomorrow could be the first time the south west has seen significant snow in January since January 2013.  - Since then all we have seen at best are sleet showers, Jan 2016, Jan 2018 but never any significant snow mid winter (Jan). Tomorrow is the last day of mid winter (31st) - can we do this for the first time since Jan 2013?


Pic below as alluded to above? Where did this spell of more prolonged snow come from for the south?



What do you make of this Rob - Hampshire guy?


 

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Edited by user 30 January 2019 23:35:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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